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ASX:MGR

Mirvac Group

Investment Summary

The fund managers believe that investing in Mirvac Group presents compelling opportunities due to its high-quality commercial property portfolio, characterized as a Bond-like Equity. They note that the recent monetary tightening has negatively impacted commercial property valuations and national new home sales, placing the residential development business at a bottom of the cycle. However, signs of stabilizing sales rates and potential recovery in certain markets have prompted them to initiate a position, especially since current prices are below their marked-to-market net tangible asset value. The fund managers view this as a risk-adjusted value with expected substantial returns as the residential cycle improves. Additionally, they see further upside potential should bond yields decrease in the future, although this is not the primary basis for their investment decision.

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Commentary From The Managers

Cooper Investors

31 Mar 2024

$2.37

  • Cooper Investors initiated a position in Mirvac (MGR) during the quarter.
  • Mirvac operates a high-quality commercial property portfolio, representing a Bond-like Equity.
  • The company also has cyclical characteristics primarily through its residential development business.
  • Recent monetary tightening has pressured commercial property valuations and sentiment.
  • National new home sales have declined to 10–20-year lows, positioning Mirvac’s residential business at the bottom of the cycle.
  • Signs of stabilisation in sales rates and early recovery indications in certain markets have been observed.
  • The opportunity arose to invest below the estimated marked-to-market net tangible asset value.
  • This reflects compelling risk-adjusted value latency with substantial upside as the residential cycle recovers.
  • Further upside potential exists if bond yields decline as we exit the tightening phase.
  • This perspective is not the sole basis for the investment thesis.

Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed. 

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