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ASX:MOV
Move Logistics Group Ltd
Investment Summary
The fund managers believe that Move Logistics Group Ltd is in a turnaround phase and still faces significant challenges but shows positive signs for future profitability. While 1H FY24 saw a significant net loss, they express cautious optimism as there are early indicators of improvement from Project Blueprint, spearheaded by new CEO Craig Evans. This project aims to reshape and grow the business, focusing on a capital light model and operational efficiencies. The recent strategic changes, including the appointments of experienced executives from Mainfreight, are expected to foster a strong organizational culture. Despite macroeconomic challenges, the managers perceive potential growth through increasing gross margins and optimizing their extensive network. Looking ahead, they anticipate improvements in EBIT margins and revenue, with a goal of achieving profitability by FY26. The overall sentiment remains that MOV, with its unique market position, could emerge stronger as economic conditions improve.
Commentary From The Managers
Naos Asset Management
31 Mar 2025
Unknown
- Naos Asset Management views MOV's recent results as exceeding expectations after a challenging period with leadership changes.
- Despite a ~5% year-on-year revenue decline, MOV saw a ~6% revenue increase from 2HFY24 driven by a revamped sales team.
- Gross margin improved significantly, rising by ~14% year-on-year and reaching ~5.2%, indicating better sales margins.
- The company reported a normalized EBT loss of ~$3.9 million, an improvement from previous losses.
- Strong business momentum continues, with the strongest quarterly performance in 18 months.
- Guidance for profitability in FY26 was reaffirmed, necessitating run-rate profitability by May/June.
- Expected factors for profitability include:
- Further gross margin improvements from utilization benefits and price increases.
- Reduction in underutilized leased property in warehousing.
- Increased benefits from the 'Accelerate Program' in 2HFY25.
- Aiming for an additional $4 million annualized fixed cost reduction.
- Improvement in retail sector volumes expected to enhance MOV's profitability.
- MOV is demonstrating characteristics seen in previous high-performing investments, such as:
- Customer-first approach with high service levels.
- Value-based pricing strategy.
- Building an experienced and aligned team.
- Clear market offering that resonates with customers.
- Cost-efficient operations with minimal waste.
- With a NZD $300 million revenue base, even modest margin improvements can significantly benefit shareholders.
- Current market capitalization of $25 million NZD suggests minimal margin expectations, presenting potential for growth.
Naos Asset Management
31 Dec 2024
Unknown
- MOV held its AGM in late October amid a challenging economic backdrop.
- Naos Asset Management attended the AGM and engaged with MOV executives and directors.
- Interim CEO Paul Millward took over in September following the resignation of former CEO Craig Evans.
- MOV appointed new general managers for Freight and Fuels and Warehousing.
- At the AGM, MOV reaffirmed its commitment to returning to positive adjusted net operating cash flow by FY25.
- The business expects significant improvements in normalised EBIT, aiming for profitability by FY26.
- Current economic conditions are challenging, particularly affecting FMCG and building products.
- AGM comments highlighted a strong performance with dollar gross margin up compared to previous quarters.
- Potential EBIT improvement of >$11 million anticipated against last year's results.
- Naos Asset Management believes that the board and management are executing a strong strategy.
- Long-term potential for MOV to become a highly profitable logistics operator in New Zealand.
- Despite challenges, MOV retained large clients like the Warehouse Group and Z-Energy.
- Potential RBNZ interest rate cuts could create a more conducive environment for MOV's growth.
- Naos Asset Management expects MOV to improve operational efficiency through various rationalisations.
- Next 12 months are poised to be critical in MOV's >100-year history.
- With a market cap of ~$25 million, the potential for value creation remains significant.
Naos Asset Management
30 June 2024
Unknown
- Naos Asset Management notes the very poor share price performance of MOV over Q4, leading to a company update and trading update.
- MOV continues to expect that 2H24 Normalised EBITDA will be ahead of 1H24, indicating potential for improvement.
- The threshold for improvement is considered low, with 1H24 EBITDA at $13.2 million and a -$8.6 million EBIT loss.
- Any significant improvement in EBITDA, such as >$16 million in 2H24, would be viewed positively.
- MOV announced a strategy amendment for their Oceans division to scale and improve reliability by entering a time share agreement for a larger vessel.
- The focus on the FY24 result will include assessing the balance sheet position and 2H trading performance.
- Potential economic recovery in New Zealand could allow MOV to benefit from recent strategic efforts and improve margins.
- MOV has a unique network presence across NZ, catering for both FCL and LCL, which provides a significant competitive advantage.
- The company can move special large infrastructure-related items, enhancing its service offerings.
- CEO resignation in mid-July was unexpected; however, the executive team is believed capable of executing the strategy without him.
- Improvements made to date suggest MOV should be able to attract a high-caliber CEO in the future.
Naos Asset Management
31 Mar 2024
Unknown
- Naos Asset Management highlights the significant net loss after-tax in 1H FY24 due to reduced revenues and one-off costs.
- Despite the loss, the actual result surpassed previous guidance, indicating some progress.
- The implementation of Project Blueprint by new CEO Craig Evans is underway, expected to take 12-18 months.
- Transition to a capital light model is noted, which will allow MOV to repay debt over time.
- Projected improvements from 2H FY24 are anticipated, particularly with the new Transport Management System.
- Capacity of MOV’s network is believed to be 2-3 times the current revenue base, presenting profit potential.
- Lower cost base compared to larger peers like Toll NZ could provide a competitive edge.
- New board appointments are seen as beneficial for enhancing alignment with operational goals.
- Looking ahead, Naos believes MOV’s journey mirrors past investments, where initial positive results can lead to significant revaluation.
- Management’s short-term goal is to return to prior year’s profit levels swiftly, reflecting ambition amidst challenges.
Naos Asset Management
30 Sept 2023
Unknown
- Naos Asset Management is reassessing its investment thesis on Move Logistics Group Ltd (MOV) based on the recent financial year results.
- The performance of MOV was in line with expectations considering it is in a turnaround phase amid challenging macroeconomic conditions.
- Despite a decline in key financial metrics (revenue, EBIT, NPAT and free cash flow) compared to FY22, there are growth foundations being laid for future profitability.
- Team building continues at MOV with strategic appointments, notably Rachel Hustler as GM People & Culture and Ricky Clark as National Sales Manager, enhancing industry expertise.
- These new senior leaders are expected to drive cultural change and improve talent retention within the company.
- Naos is encouraged by MOV’s Project Blueprint strategy, aiming for both immediate and organic growth benefits within a 12-18 month timeline.
- The first part of the strategy includes margin improvement initiatives, such as fleet rationalisation, IT upgrades, and improved pricing structures.
- Key growth pillars in the strategy include enhancing less than truck load (LCL) offerings and developing a robust sales function.
- Naos sees potential in collaboration with other logistics firms to boost network utilisation and ocean offerings.
- Recent figures indicate a 1.50% EBITDA margin improvement in the freight division during the second half of FY23, hinting at possible financial recovery.
Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
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