Amcor Fights Resin Cost Fears While Defending Its Berry Deal

Fund managers disagree sharply on valuation, but most say Amcor's ability to pass through resin costs is being underestimated

24 Jul 2026 · 5 min read

Global packaging giant Amcor spent much of 2025 and 2026 defending its Berry Global acquisition synergies against a skeptical market, while resin cost swings tied to volatile oil prices repeatedly tested the company's ability to pass through input costs to customers.

A defensive business meets a soft consumer backdrop

Allan Gray's September 2025 update framed the scale of Amcor's footprint: the world's largest manufacturer of consumer packaging, with 400 manufacturing sites, supplying many household-name brands most people would not immediately associate with the company. Tyndall Asset Management's July and August updates showed the near-term challenge, with a weak fourth quarter and FY25 result driven by a US consumer slowdown hitting discretionary categories, particularly confectionery and beverages, though Tyndall remained positive on Amcor's earnings growth profile underpinned by the Berry Global integration.

Berry synergy skepticism weighs on the stock

Atlas Funds Management's December 2025 update described lingering market doubt about the Berry acquisition's promised synergies, even as the company's own updates through the second half of 2025 showed improving traction. Wilson Asset Management's November 2025 update reported Amcor's first-quarter FY26 result coming in better than feared against subdued volumes, with management reaffirming FY26 underlying earnings per share guidance of US80 to 83 cents, representing 12 to 17 per cent year-on-year growth, while Tyndall's own November update noted management had positively adjusted commentary around Berry-related revenue synergies specifically.

Amcor's Q1 FY2026 result was in line with guidance and was better than feared against a backdrop of subdued volumes. Importantly, management reaffirmed FY2026 underlying earnings per share (EPS) guidance of US80-83 cps, representing a year-on-year growth of 12-17%.

— Wilson Asset Management, Newsletter, November 2025

A resin cost scare tests the pass-through thesis

Atlas Funds Management's March 2026 update showed frustration at shares falling 17 per cent despite a solid quarterly result, as resin prices, a major packaging input derived from oil, rose following an oil price shock, even though Atlas argued this was unlikely to materially impact profits given Amcor's long-term customer contracts. Pengana Capital Group made a similar case, arguing fears about oil-driven resin cost increases overlooked Amcor's established ability to pass those costs through to customers.

It was frustrating to see Amcor down (-17%) for the month after providing a solid quarterly result in February. Over the month, the price of resin, a major input cost for packaging, increased following the oil price shock. This is unlikely to impact Amcor's profits, as it has long-term contracts with customers that pass through these input costs.

— Atlas Funds Management, Monthly Report, March 2026

A split verdict on valuation and risk

By June 2026, opinion had diverged sharply. Investors Mutual Limited rated the stock a buy, citing a yield above 6.5 per cent and 95 per cent of the business supplying defensive healthcare, food and beverage packaging, even while acknowledging volume pressure partly tied to aggressive discounting by major customer Pepsi. Plato Investment Management took the opposite view, rating the stock a sell and pointing to multiple red flags in its process despite the earnings downgrade cycle of the past 12 months not having made the stock meaningfully cheaper in its assessment. Paradice Investment Management exited its position on balance sheet and earnings concerns, while Blackwattle Investment Partners established a new position the same month, seeing structural benefits flowing from the Berry Global merger and a clear path to reducing balance sheet gearing.

A recovering setup into FY27

Wilson Asset Management's June 2026 commentary named Amcor a top pick after shares fell around 12 to 15 per cent over the prior year, arguing the setup into FY27 looked compelling with falling resin prices delivering working capital relief just as volumes recover from trough levels. Wilson's own monthly update confirmed resin prices had already begun falling after the earlier oil-driven spike tied to the Middle East conflict, expected to provide relief into the back half of the year.