Amcor's Resin Scare Meets the First Real Signs of a Volume Turnaround

Oil-driven cost fears hit the stock hard, but falling resin prices and the first positive volume quarter in two years are reshaping the debate.

28 Sep 2026 · 4 min read

Amcor fell 17 percent in a single month in early 2026 as an oil-price-driven spike in resin costs unsettled investors, even though the packaging giant's long-term contracts are designed to pass those costs through to customers. By June fund managers were split between bulls buying into a defensive, high-yielding turnaround story and at least one seller citing accounting red flags, before August brought the first tangible evidence of a genuine volume recovery.

Resin cost fears hit a business built to pass them through

Pengana Capital Group described Amcor as a stable packaging supplier to fast-moving consumer goods companies, arguing fears about oil prices lifting resin costs overlooked the company's ability to pass those increases through to customers, with only a short-term working capital impact expected to unwind over time. Atlas Funds Management called it frustrating to see the stock fall 17 percent for the month after a solid February quarterly result, noting the resin price rise following the oil shock was unlikely to hit profits given Amcor's long-term contracts already pass through raw material cost increases. Investors Mutual Limited said the stock fell 5.3 percent on the same resin price concerns, leaving it on an extremely low 12 and 9 times earnings multiple across financial years that it believes more than factors in the risk of future downgrades, given the recurring, defensive nature of its earnings. Paradice Investment Management initiated a new position on Amcor's strong free cash flow yield, undemanding valuation and encouraging signs from a change in strategy at one of its key customers.

This is unlikely to impact Amcor's profits, as it has long-term contracts with customers that pass on increases in raw material costs.

— Atlas Funds Management, Monthly Report, March 2026

A split verdict emerges by June

Investors Mutual Limited rated the stock a buy, pointing to a yield above 6.5 percent and 95 percent of the business supplying defensive healthcare, food and beverage packaging, while acknowledging volumes have been under pressure partly from inflation and partly because major customer Pepsi has been discounting aggressively and losing share, a dynamic it expects to ease as inflation stabilises and consumer goods volumes recover. Plato Investment Management took the opposite view, rating the stock a sell on the basis that earnings have simply been downgraded over the past year rather than the stock becoming genuinely cheaper, and citing several red flags in Amcor's accounting practices.

Wilson Asset Management continued holding, noting a third-quarter update showing soft conditions but improving volume trends, with the rate of decline easing and better trading emerging in the US as the quarter progressed, and separately named Amcor its top non-resources pick after shares fell about 12 percent over the year, arguing the setup into FY27 looks compelling with falling resin prices delivering relief alongside volumes recovering from trough levels.

The Berry Global merger and a resin price reversal help the bull case

Wilson Asset Management said Amcor had faced one of its most difficult input cost environments in recent memory following the Middle East-driven oil price spike, but resin prices have since fallen, providing working capital relief into the second half of the calendar year alongside recovering volumes and merger synergies. Blackwattle Investment Partners established a new position early in June, viewing Amcor as offering structural benefits from its recent merger with Berry Global, with the combined business providing a clear path to reducing balance sheet gearing over coming years, on top of the natural protection its contractual pass-through pricing mechanism provides. Paradice Investment Management took the opposite path, exiting its position entirely on balance sheet and earnings concerns.

August brings the first real evidence of a turnaround

Pendal Group reported a return to organic volume growth in the fourth quarter, though this was overshadowed by weaker than expected earnings per share guidance for the first half of FY27, roughly 3 percent below consensus after adjusting for asset sales, alongside a cash flow miss and higher than expected FY27 capital expenditure, with the negative surprise driven by higher interest expense and normalised incentive payments. First Samuel offered a more optimistic read, calling the FY26 result the first tangible evidence that Amcor's multi-year volume weakness may be stabilising, with group volumes turning positive for the first time in two years, up 0.5 percent in the June quarter, a 200 basis point sequential improvement, with July trends holding up and a broader customer pivot toward volume over price. First Samuel also noted synergy delivery has consistently outpaced targets.

Group volumes turned positive for the first time in two years, up 0.5% in the June quarter, a 200bp sequential improvement, with management noting July trends held up.

— First Samuel, Article, August 2026

What fund managers say they are watching next is whether the first positive volume quarter in two years extends into FY27, whether falling resin prices keep flowing through to margins and working capital, progress on Berry Global merger synergies and balance sheet deleveraging, and whether the softer first-half FY27 guidance proves conservative once the levers management has pulled work through the numbers.