Ampol's EG Group Deal Clears ACCC Amid a Refining Margin Boom

Fund managers say a completed acquisition and surging refining margins have combined to drive a sustained earnings upgrade cycle

20 Jul 2026 · 5 min read

Fuel refiner and retailer Ampol rode a $1.1 billion EG Group acquisition and a Middle East-driven refining margin surge to a run of earnings upgrades through 2025 and 2026, culminating in ACCC approval for the deal in mid-2026.

A $1.1 billion service station acquisition

Ten Cap's August 2025 update flagged the deal: Ampol agreed to acquire EG Group's Australian service station portfolio for $1.1 billion, a purchase that triggered a positive market reaction. Airlie Funds Management's September update confirmed a first-half result in line with expectations, with sentiment toward near-term refining margins improving significantly and the EG Group deal received positively, sending shares up 18 per cent that month.

A refining margin surge amid Middle East tensions

Alliance Bernstein initiated a position in October 2025, benefiting from wider crack spreads supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions. That tailwind intensified through the first quarter of 2026: BKI Investment Company reported shares up 21.9 per cent in March on tightening refined fuel market conditions, while Sage Capital described the rally as driven by oil prices and refinery margins surging following the escalating threat to the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, with regional refining margins reaching USD$40 to $50 a barrel.

The Domestic Cyclicals group performance was led by a long position in Ampol (ASX: ALD +22%) which rallied sharply as oil prices and refinery margins surged following the escalating threat to the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Ampol has been a direct beneficiary of higher margins.

— Sage Capital, Monthly Report, March 2026

A government support package rebased favourably

Pendal Group's March 2026 update reported a separate positive development: Ampol reached agreement with the federal government to amend the terms of its Fuel Security Support Package, better reflecting how refinery costs had evolved in recent years, with back-testing suggesting higher support payments under the revised framework. Airlie Funds Management's own March update argued the market underappreciated the strategic value of Ampol's Lytton refinery beyond its well-known national convenience retail network, a view echoed by Seneca Financial Solutions in May, which noted only two Australian refineries remain operating nationally after a string of closures over the past two decades.

There are only 2 Australian refineries still operating: Viva Energy's Geelong refinery in Victoria, and Ampol (ASX: ALD)'s Lytton refinery in Queensland, following a string of other refinery closures over the last two decades. Australia's lack of domestic refining capacity and a generational oil/fuel shock underscore the strategic value of the remaining assets.

— Seneca Financial Solutions, Article, May 2026

Profit-taking amid a structurally supportive backdrop

Ten Cap took profits in March 2026 following the strong rally, while remaining positive on the near-term earnings outlook but seeing more attractive opportunities elsewhere. Milford Asset Management similarly trimmed some energy exposure but retained a core Ampol position, given the prospect of structurally higher oil prices not yet reflected in broader market pricing. Pendal Group's April update showed the momentum continuing into the second quarter, with Ampol's shop and wholesale performance outpacing peer Viva Energy, and refinery strength even greater, prompting earnings upgrades.

An expanded government fuel security package

Pendal Group's May 2026 update reported the government announcing a fuel security package worth more than $10 billion, with somewhat limited detail but clear intent to expand fuel stocks and storage capacity, an opportunity for both Ampol and Viva Energy to participate, though the specific scope remained unclear at the time. Pendal's own update the same month noted continued strength in both refining and trading, the latter benefiting from the Iranian conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

ACCC clears the EG Group takeover

Pendal Group's June 2026 update confirmed the ACCC had approved Ampol's takeover of EG Group, though the company had to divest more sites than originally offered, not as many as some had feared. Pendal noted the original deal metrics were reaffirmed, with high single-digit earnings per share accretion expected post synergies. By July 2026, both Alphinity Investment Management and Maple-Brown Abbott rated the stock a buy, with Maple-Brown Abbott specifically citing a single-digit price to earnings ratio even accounting for expected normalisation of currently inflated refining margins in the following year.