Why fund managers think AUB Group's AI sell-off has gone too far
A private equity consortium walked away from a $45-a-share bid, and fears about AI disrupting insurance broking have followed, but several managers see the de-rating as overdone.
10 Jun 2026 · 6 min read
In short
A private equity consortium led by EQT AB and CVC Asia Pacific offered $45 per share for AUB Group in late 2025 before withdrawing from the deal in December.
AUB Group has since been caught up in a broader market sell-off driven by fears that artificial intelligence could disintermediate insurance brokers.
Fund managers including Bell Asset Management and Auscap Asset Management argue the AI risk is overstated given the relationship-driven nature of insurance broking.
Insurance broking network AUB Group has become one of the more contested value calls on the ASX, with fund managers arguing the stock has been swept up in an AI disruption scare that has little to do with its underlying earnings. Bell Asset Management's May 2026 Article made the case plainly: the company has been heavily de-rated over the past year on fears that artificial intelligence will remove the need for brokers, a risk the manager considers overstated given insurance broking is heavily relationship-driven.
From takeover target to AI sell-off
AUB's past twelve months have been eventful. A non-binding proposal from private equity group EQT AB, later joined by CVC Asia Pacific, valued the company at $45 per share in late 2025, a premium Asymmetric Asset Management and Yarra Capital Management both flagged as validation of the business. When the consortium walked away from the deal in December 2025, Ellerston Capital and Perennial Partners both used the resulting 17-18% share price fall as a buying opportunity, arguing the withdrawal reflected valuation discipline from the bidders rather than a problem with the business. SG Hiscock & Company's December 2025 Monthly Report noted management had reaffirmed FY26 earnings guidance immediately after the deal collapsed.
Not only has AUB been embedding AI in its technology and processes, but insurance broking is heavily relationship-driven and a key risk mitigant that business owners will be slow to hand over to an AI agent.
— Bell Asset Management, Article, May 2026
The AI overhang resurfaced through February and March 2026, when Perennial Partners and Pengana Capital Group both described AUB as caught up in a broader sell-off of stocks perceived as vulnerable to disruption. Auscap Asset Management's March 2026 Presentation put a number on the resulting valuation gap, noting AUB was trading on an 11-12 times price-to-earnings multiple, close to its COVID-19 lows, despite guiding to profit growth ahead of peer Steadfast's 7%.
What managers are watching next
With the Prestige and Paymark-style bolt-on acquisitions continuing to expand AUB's international division, and premium rate growth having moderated to low single digits, managers including Yarra Capital Management are focused on whether the Tysers UK platform and BizCover can keep offsetting a softer domestic insurance cycle, while First Sentier Investors continues to point to AUB's return on equity and geographic diversification as reasons to hold the position through the current de-rating.
Questions
Why did AUB Group's takeover bid collapse?
A private equity consortium of EQT AB and CVC Asia Pacific withdrew its non-binding $45-per-share proposal to acquire AUB Group in December 2025 after completing due diligence, without giving a detailed public reason for walking away.
Is AUB Group at risk from AI disruption?
Fund managers such as Bell Asset Management and Auscap Asset Management argue the AI disruption risk to AUB Group has been overstated by the market, since insurance broking, particularly in complex corporate risk categories, remains heavily relationship-driven.
What is AUB Group's valuation after the AI-driven sell-off?
According to Auscap Asset Management's March 2026 commentary, AUB Group was trading on an 11 to 12 times price-to-earnings multiple, close to its lows during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite guiding to earnings growth ahead of peer Steadfast.
18 managers, 37 comments, with each manager's latest recorded position.
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