Autosports Group's EV Pivot Meets a Rate-Driven Valuation Reset

Fund managers say the founder-led luxury dealer's surging EV sales are being overshadowed by rate rises and a tax surprise

31 May 2026 · 4 min read

Founder-led luxury car dealer Autosports Group delivered record revenue and rapid EV sales growth through late 2025, before rising interest rates and a Luxury Car Tax surprise pressured the stock in early 2026, leaving fund managers debating whether the sell-off has gone too far.

A founder-led business with record results

Wilson Asset Management's August 2025 review pointed to record FY25 revenue of $2.86 billion, up 8 per cent year on year, and normalised profit before tax of $47.1 million, supported by a 33 per cent uplift in second-half earnings. Milford Asset Management, adding Autosports to its Dynamic Fund in October 2025, emphasised the founder alignment behind those results: the Pagent family, who founded the business with a single Sydney Audi dealership in 2006, retains 52 per cent of the company, with Ian Pagent as a non-executive director and Nick Pagent as managing director.

One of the consistent themes I've witnessed over the years is the outperformance of many these companies against those run by professional managers. These founders derive meaning from the challenge, identity and ethos of their work and not necessarily from the incentive package the Board's remuneration committee has devised for them.

— Milford Asset Management, Article, October 2025

An EV pivot pays off as fuel prices rise

Milford's October 2025 piece also flagged Autosports' growing exposure to Chinese EV brands Zeekr and Polestar as an important source of optionality, and that thesis accelerated through 2026. 1851 Capital's May 2026 update reported EV sales up more than 300 per cent year on year as petrol prices rose, describing Autosports as an under-the-radar pick trading on a price to earnings ratio of just seven times, with the market unfairly dismissing the stock on rate fears that were not playing out as expected.

Rate rises and a tax surprise pressure the stock

The rate cycle did eventually bite. Wilson Asset Management's March 2026 update noted the share price falling on broader weakness across interest rate sensitive stocks, compounded by a surprise: the Australia-EU Free Trade Agreement signed on 24 March 2026 raised the Luxury Car Tax threshold for electric vehicles only, despite wider expectations it would be abolished entirely. Paradice Investment Management quantified the hit, noting two 25 basis point RBA rate rises during the quarter dented both consumer affordability for big-ticket luxury purchases and the company's own bailment costs on its roughly $580 million inventory book, leaving the stock trading at 7.7 times earnings against a long-term average of 9.7 times.

The company continued to pursue its acquisition strategy during the quarter, with the announced acquisition of the Solitaire Automotive group, involving 15 dealerships across South Australia for ~$50m, marking ASG's entry into the SA market. The deal is expected to add approximately $300m in annualised revenue and be immediately earnings accretive upon settlement.

— Paradice Investment Management, Monthly Report, March 2026

A cyclical pressure test on a structural growth story

Lennox Capital Partners' May 2026 update showed the stock still under pressure, down around 17 per cent that month amid weak consumer demand following federal budget tax changes and cumulative rate rises, alongside broader disruption to dealership models from accelerating EV adoption. Lennox argued Autosports was better placed than most for that transition given its strong exposure to Geely, Zeekr and new Mercedes-Benz and BMW electric ranges, even if the earnings benefit would take time to show up as the order book converts to revenue rather than immediate sales.