Bapcor's 80% Collapse Meets a New CEO's Early Turnaround Signs

Repeated downgrades, a leadership exodus and a discounted capital raise wiped out most of the stock's value, before a new CEO started drawing value investors back.

21 Sep 2026 · 4 min read

Bapcor collapsed roughly 80 percent from around $2.30 to below 50 cents over an 11-month stretch defined by repeated profit downgrades, a mass exodus of senior leadership including three directors and the chief executive, and a heavily discounted capital raise, even as a new CEO's early turnaround signs and a rock-bottom valuation are now drawing believers back in.

A turnaround stock that kept missing its own numbers

First Samuel described a weak October update from what it called its portfolio turnaround stock, still believing that despite execution and governance issues, the value of the franchise is significantly larger than the share price. Yarra Capital Management said the automotive aftermarket supplier underperformed following a profit downgrade for FY26, with underlying net profit expected to fall around 30 percent, as weak first-quarter trading and softer demand across retail and trade segments raised genuine execution concerns.

Leadership exodus deepens the crisis

Maple-Brown Abbott said the stock fell 35 percent after earnings guidance below expectations in October was followed by a further downgrade in December, alongside another leadership change as the chief executive departed after less than 18 months, with two divisional heads also resigning, leaving valuations that looked attractive undermined by rising earnings uncertainty and a stretched balance sheet. Yarra Capital Management said leadership churn across the group chief executive, trade and retail roles exacerbated uncertainty around a second-half earnings skew and balance sheet risk. Atlas Funds Management admitted candidly it had held the stock for a large part of the year, calling its mistake believing the trade would recover once a private equity bid emerged, while overlooking an extreme level of corporate turmoil that saw three directors walk out the door in July.

Unfortunately, I've touched this dog during the year. I think the mistake that we made with that is thinking the trade was going to come back on. There was a private equity bid. And we just ignored the extreme level of corporate turmoil.

— Atlas Funds Management, Article, December 2025

Ten Cap rated the stock a clear sell, arguing that once a former market darling goes through structural issues of this kind, its category becomes significantly more competitive around it, and it does not expect Bapcor to return to its former glory.

A discounted capital raise triggers a further collapse

Yarra Capital Management said the stock underperformed further following its first-half FY26 result and a simultaneous discounted capital raise, with softening operating momentum forcing another rebasing of the business, a buildup of inventory and an uncertain earnings outlook across the Trade, Retail and Wholesale divisions. Ellerston Capital confirmed the stock fell 43.9 percent after the capital raise, while Spheria Asset Management said it declined a further 26 percent in March following completion of the institutional and retail raising, with higher fuel prices weighing on demand as consumers deferred car servicing and discretionary retail spending, even as it saw significant upside looking through the near-term headwinds.

New CEO, and value hunters start circling

Ellerston Capital said it added to what it called a completely bombed out and previously poorly managed Bapcor, encouraged by the appointment of Chris Wilesmith as new chief executive and Craig Magill to run the core Trade and Bursons business, both experienced leaders with a deep understanding of the auto aftermarket industry. Katana Asset Management said the stock had been aggressively sold down as gearing concerns resurfaced, but believes the market is discounting Bapcor's strong position in a critical retail vertical, with current weakness potentially drawing out bidders who value the roughly $2 billion revenue pool. Spheria Asset Management said it used the equity raising and on-market purchases to build a significant position, acknowledging the investment had been terrible on paper to date, but seeing attractive value as new chief executive Chris Wilesmith, formerly of Supercheap Auto, made a solid start on the turnaround with positive supplier feedback, anchored by the standout Trade division making up around 35 percent of sales.

We see attractive value despite it being a terrible investment on paper to date. New CEO Chris Wilesmith is making a solid start on the turnaround, with positive supplier feedback.

— Spheria Asset Management, Article, June 2026

August: a cheap, defensive business finally gets some love

Investors Mutual Limited described Bapcor as a distributor of automotive aftermarket parts, similar to Reliance Worldwide in being largely non-discretionary, servicing and maintaining vehicles regardless of the economic cycle, with at least 75 percent of what it sells powertrain-agnostic between electric and internal combustion vehicles. The fund said the business has evolved considerably over the past three to four years and now looks cheap, trading on eight times earnings with a dividend yield above 6 percent, fully franked.

What fund managers say they are watching next is delivery under new chief executive Chris Wilesmith's turnaround plan, stabilisation across the Trade, Retail and Wholesale divisions, whether the balance sheet risk that triggered the discounted capital raise is now resolved, and whether Bapcor's roughly $2 billion revenue pool eventually draws a takeover bid as Katana suggests, or whether the market simply re-rates the stock on its own improving merits.