Bapcor's Collapse From $8 to 50 Cents Draws Contrarian Bargain Hunters
Fund managers say a new CEO and a discounted capital raise are drawing value investors back to a battered automotive parts retailer
12 Jun 2026 · 5 min read
In short
Bapcor fell from a 2021 high of $8.35 to under 50 cents by mid-2026, through repeated profit downgrades and board departures.
The company has changed CEOs multiple times, most recently appointing Chris Wilesmith, a former Supercheap executive, in late 2025.
Katana Asset Management says the weakness may draw takeover interest given the roughly $2 billion revenue pool Bapcor commands.
Automotive parts wholesaler Bapcor collapsed from around $8.35 in 2021 to under 50 cents by mid-2026, through repeated profit downgrades and three separate rounds of leadership turnover, before a fresh CEO and a discounted capital raise drew some contrarian buyers back in.
A downgrade arrives alongside board departures
Prime Value Asset Management's July 2025 update described the trigger: Bapcor downgraded profit expectations ahead of its FY25 result due to softer trading and integration issues, announcing several non-cash below-the-line charges at the same time three directors resigned. Yarra Capital Management's own July update considered the earnings miss, restatements, write-downs and board departures to be company-specific issues rather than signs of a deeper problem, a view that would be repeatedly tested over the following year.
A weak result confirms the damage
Ellerston Capital's September 2025 update reported the FY25 result itself: underlying net profit after tax fell 8.4 per cent to A$80.4 million, with weak margins in the normally resilient Trade segment and continued Retail underperformance. Atlas Funds Management exited its position that month following an unsatisfactory management meeting in which it learned the turnaround would take longer than planned, while Akambo exited citing three years of static revenue and declining earnings per share growth, saying it had little faith in Bapcor's ability to grow.
BAP shares continued to slide following the delivery of a very weak FY25 result announced back in July, where underlying NPAT fell -8.4% to A$80.4m. Weak margins within the typically resilient Trade segment (2H-190bps hoh) and continued underperformance within Retail (2H sales-5.9% on pcp).
— Ellerston Capital, Monthly Report, September 2025
A second downgrade, then a third leadership shake-up
Yarra Capital Management's October 2025 update reported a further FY26 profit downgrade, with underlying net profit expected to fall around 30 per cent on weak first-quarter trading. Maple-Brown Abbott's December 2025 update showed the leadership churn intensifying, with the CEO departing after less than 18 months alongside resignations from two divisional heads, prompting shares to fall a further 35 per cent that month. Ellerston Capital, having exited earlier, chose to selectively re-enter what it called a completely bombed out stock, encouraged specifically by the appointment of Chris Wilesmith as new CEO and Craig Magill to run the core Trade and Bursons business, both experienced auto aftermarket leaders.
A discounted capital raise deepens the fall
Yarra Capital Management's February 2026 update reported shares falling further after the first-half FY26 result was accompanied by a simultaneous discounted capital raise, with softening operating momentum, an inventory buildup and an uncertain earnings outlook. Spheria Asset Management's March 2026 update confirmed the shares fell around 26 per cent that month following completion of the institutional and retail equity raising, with rising fuel prices adding a fresh headwind as consumers deferred car servicing and cut discretionary spending.
Bapcor (BAP.ASX) declined ~26% over the month following the completion of its institutional and retail equity raising. The macro environment remains challenging: higher fuel prices are likely to weigh on demand for Bapcor's products as consumers defer car servicing and reduce spending on discretionary automotive items.
— Spheria Asset Management, Monthly Report, March 2026
A takeover speculation emerges from the wreckage
Katana Asset Management's May 2026 update reported the stock being aggressively sold down as concerns over gearing levels resurfaced, even as Katana believed the market was discounting Bapcor's strong position in a critical retail vertical, suggesting the weakness could draw out potential bidders valuing the roughly $2 billion revenue pool the business commands. Spheria Asset Management's own June 2026 update confirmed it had used the equity raising and subsequent on-market purchases to build a significant position, acknowledging the investment had been a terrible one on paper to date, but seeing attractive value in new CEO Chris Wilesmith's solid early execution.
Questions
Why has Bapcor's share price fallen so sharply since 2021?
Ellerston Capital and Maple-Brown Abbott said Bapcor delivered repeated profit downgrades, including an 8.4% FY25 profit decline and a roughly 30% FY26 downgrade, alongside multiple rounds of leadership turnover including three director resignations and two CEO departures.
Who is Bapcor's new CEO?
Ellerston Capital said Bapcor appointed Chris Wilesmith, a former Supercheap executive, as CEO in late 2025, alongside Craig Magill to run the core Trade and Bursons business, both seen as experienced leaders with deep automotive aftermarket industry knowledge.
Why might Bapcor attract takeover interest?
Katana Asset Management said the sharp sell-down may draw potential bidders who value Bapcor's strong position in a critical retail vertical and its roughly $2 billion revenue pool, even as the market has heavily discounted the stock over gearing concerns.
15 managers, 31 comments, with each manager's latest recorded position.
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