Bellevue Gold's hedge book divides buyers from sellers on the same asset
After a rocky 2025 ramp-up at its high-grade underground mine, Bellevue Gold's improving production trajectory has split fund managers into two camps assessing the exact same asset, largely over how much its legacy hedge book is costing shareholders against today's gold price.
10 Apr 2026 · 5 min read
In short
Acorn Capital says Bellevue Gold has the potential to be hedge- and debt-free by late 2026 after raising capital and lowering guidance, which could trigger a major re-rate if achieved.
Datt Capital rates the stock a sell, citing a hedge book with ounces sold forward at around A$2,900 against a spot gold price of roughly A$6,800, even while acknowledging the underlying asset is attractive and high-grade.
Maple-Brown Abbott calls Bellevue Gold a compelling 2026 investment given expected improvements in grade and recovery, further supported by the roll-off of its hedge book in an elevated gold price environment.
Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) has become a genuine case study in how the same underlying asset can produce sharply opposing views, largely turning on how fund managers weigh its legacy hedge book against a soaring spot gold price. Clime Investment Management captured the operational starting point in July 2025, noting quarterly production came in modestly below forecast with all-in cash costs 7% below expectations at a headline level, though it questioned the sustainability of that cost outcome once sustaining and growth capital were factored in.
A rocky start-up gives way to recovery
After a difficult 2025 during the ramp-up of its high-grade underground operation, Bellevue's fortunes turned. Monash Investors reported the stock recovered 33% in September 2025 alongside a broader re-rate across its small resources positions, while Acorn Capital summarised the turnaround in January 2026, noting the company had raised additional capital and lowered guidance, positioning it to potentially be hedge- and debt-free by late 2026, an outcome the fund believed could trigger a major re-rate if achieved.
Now they have raised more money and lowered guidance, Bellevue has the potential to be hedge- and debt-free by late 2026. If this is achieved, the company could experience a major re-rate.
Acorn Capital, Article, January 2026
The gold price does the heavy lifting
Through late 2025, rising gold prices provided a substantial tailwind independent of company-specific execution. Yarra Capital Management, holding an overweight position, noted the stock outperformed in November on a 5% rise in the gold price, highlighting Bellevue's leverage as a high-grade producer, and again in December on a 14% quarterly gold price gain, while cautioning that long-term performance still depends on consistent production, cost control and execution of growth plans. Maple-Brown Abbott framed 2026 as a compelling entry point specifically because of the expected turnaround in production, improving grades and recovery, combined with the roll-off of the hedge book in an elevated gold price environment.
The hedge book splits opinion sharply
By April 2026, two managers speaking on the same media segment reached opposite conclusions on the identical asset. Datt Capital rated the stock a sell, acknowledging Bellevue is an attractive, high-grade deep asset with a history of production challenges, but arguing the single biggest factor working against it is a hedge book with a considerable number of ounces sold forward at around A$2,900, a stark discount to a spot gold price near A$6,800, even as management works to proactively pre-deliver into the hedge book ahead of maturity.
There's a considerable amount of ounces that have been sold forward at significantly lower prices, about 2,900 AUD, which doesn't look the best when you consider gold spot prices are 6,800 AUD... I think there are cleaner exposures for our purposes.
Datt Capital, Article, April 2026
The bull case leans on improving mine grades
Acorn Capital took the opposite side of the same debate, rating the stock a buy over the following six months, arguing that while it is a variable, high-grade underground mine that can swing quarter to quarter, the company was getting into better parts of the ore body, producing more ounces at lower cost, and that management's guidance on where it will be mining over the next six to nine months gave the fund confidence in achieving its forecast, despite acknowledging the inherent variability risk of high-grade underground mining.
What managers are watching next
With the hedge book roll-off timeline and production consistency both central to the diverging views, the key catalysts fund managers are tracking are the pace of pre-delivery into the legacy hedge positions, whether Bellevue achieves the hedge- and debt-free status Acorn Capital flagged for late 2026, and whether production from the higher-grade sections of the ore body management has guided toward materialises as forecast over the coming two quarters.
Questions
Why is Bellevue Gold's hedge book controversial among fund managers?
Datt Capital rates Bellevue Gold a sell primarily due to its hedge book, which has ounces sold forward at around A$2,900 against a spot gold price near A$6,800, even though the fund considers the underlying high-grade asset attractive.
Could Bellevue Gold become debt-free?
Acorn Capital says Bellevue Gold has the potential to be hedge- and debt-free by late 2026 following a capital raise and lowered production guidance, an outcome the fund believes could trigger a major share price re-rate if achieved.
Why do some fund managers still rate Bellevue Gold a buy?
Acorn Capital rates the stock a buy, arguing the company is mining into better parts of its high-grade ore body, producing more ounces at lower cost, with management's near-term mine plan giving the fund confidence despite the inherent quarter-to-quarter variability of high-grade underground mining.
12 managers, 24 comments, with each manager's latest recorded position.
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