Why fund managers say Catapult Sports' AI sell-off is overblown

Catapult Sports' athlete performance data and mission-critical wearables software kept growing through an AI-driven software sell-off that several managers view as overblown.

15 Jul 2026 · 6 min read

Sports science technology company Catapult Sports was swept into a broad AI-disruption sell-off in software stocks through early 2026, even as Ellerston Capital's April 2026 Article argued the fears are overblown for a company whose proprietary athlete performance data cannot easily be recreated by a generic AI model, and which continues growing top-line revenue at more than 20% annually.

Mission-critical wearables data with high switching costs

Forager Funds' April 2026 Presentation described the mechanics of Catapult's moat: at an average cost of around US$29,000 per professional team per year, the software is mission-critical, holding years of player performance data that would be lost if a team churned to a competitor, while an injury to a single top-tier player is worth far more than the entire annual subscription cost. Lakehouse Capital's March 2026 Monthly Report detailed the growth trajectory behind that moat, with FY26 annual contract value expected to grow 27-28% to US$133-134 million on a constant currency basis, inclusive of the recently acquired IMPECT, alongside a pathway management has outlined toward US$1 billion in annual contract value.

They're two of the names that we still like in that sector, despite the pullbacks. We still believe in their stories.

— Ellerston Capital, Article, April 2026

Blackwattle Investment Partners' January 2026 Monthly Report detailed initiating a position after the shares fell 45% from their October high following an interim result that showed strong operational performance but guided to near-term earnings per share impacts as the company funds recent acquisitions, a trade-off the manager viewed as strengthening competitive advantage and accelerating market share gains from weaker competitors over the longer term. Lakehouse Capital's report confirmed EBITDA was expected to rise around 50% year on year, with the company debt-free and holding approximately US$50 million in cash, even as share-based compensation stepped up due to equity issued to IMPECT's founders complicating the near-term path to accounting profitability.

What managers are watching next

Forager Funds' own trading history in the stock illustrates how volatile sentiment has been: the fund exited its long-held position in September 2025 near full valuation, watched the shares halve, then bought back in during the January-February 2026 window and again in April 2026, alongside financial services software business Bravura, making the two positions the fourth and sixth largest in its Australian Share Fund. With Forager's May 2026 Article confirming annualised contract value grew around 18% organically over the year, a strong result at the scale the business now operates at, the durability of that organic growth rate alongside further acquisition integration remains the key focus for managers.