Cedar Woods Keeps Upgrading Earnings Even as Rate Fears Bite
Fund managers say a structural housing shortage keeps driving earnings upgrades, even as the share price reacts to policy uncertainty
30 Jun 2026 · 4 min read
In short
Cedar Woods upgraded FY26 profit growth guidance twice, most recently to 30-35%, supported by $748 million in presales.
Shares fell over 20% in March 2026 despite the earnings upgrades, as rate uncertainty pressured residential property stocks broadly.
SG Hiscock & Company says a new-builds carve-out from proposed negative gearing changes could be a tailwind for Cedar Woods' pipeline.
Residential developer Cedar Woods Properties delivered repeated earnings upgrades through late 2025 and early 2026 on the back of a structural housing shortage, before rate uncertainty and federal tax policy changes pressured the stock despite the operational strength continuing.
Record earnings visibility from pre-sales
Wilson Asset Management's October 2025 update reported a strong September quarter, with property settlement volumes up 17 per cent on the same quarter in 2024, prompting management to upgrade FY26 net profit guidance from 10 per cent to 15 per cent growth. With over 90 per cent of FY26 revenue already pre-sold, the most visibility in decades, and around 9,400 lots, dwellings and office units across 35 projects in Queensland, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, Wilson saw the company as well positioned to benefit from population growth and limited housing supply.
A further upgrade lifts guidance again
Endeavor Asset Management's February 2026 update showed the momentum continuing: a strong first-half FY26 result exceeding expectations led management to upgrade FY26 net profit growth guidance again, this time from more than 20 per cent to 30 to 35 per cent, supported by $748 million in presales. Shares lifted 12 per cent that month, with Pengana Capital Group citing Cedar Woods among its top contributors and reiterating a constructive view on affordable residential developers where structural demand continues to outstrip supply.
Residential property developer Cedar Woods Properties (CWP) delivered a strong 1H FY26 result, exceeding expectations. The company upgraded FY26 NPAT growth guidance to 30-35%, up from previously greater than 20%, supported by $748 million in presales providing strong earnings visibility.
— Endeavor Asset Management, Monthly Report, February 2026
Rate uncertainty and tax policy weigh on sentiment
That strength didn't prevent a sharp reversal. Pengana Capital Group's March 2026 update showed Cedar Woods falling 20.54 per cent that month, one of its main portfolio detractors, even as Pengana noted the position had still contributed 42.30 per cent over the prior 12 months and continued to see valuation support from its own bottom-up analysis. By May 2026, SG Hiscock & Company flagged a new headwind: the Federal Budget's proposed removal of negative gearing on established properties and changes to capital gains tax concessions compounded already soft property sector sentiment, though SG Hiscock noted a new-builds carve-out from the negative gearing changes could prove a medium-term tailwind for Cedar Woods' greenfield pipeline specifically.
CWP's multi-state exposure and strong presale pipeline position it well relative to more concentrated peers, and the new builds carve-out from the negative gearing changes is a potential medium-term tailwind for its greenfield pipeline.
— SG Hiscock & Company, Monthly Report, May 2026
Pipeline additions keep the growth story intact
Endeavor Asset Management's June 2026 update showed the company continuing to execute regardless of the share price volatility, adding three new development sites across Victoria and Queensland, including Kealba, Fairfield and South Maclean, while confirming it remained on track to deliver the top end of its 30 to 35 per cent FY26 earnings growth guidance, with FY26 settlements effectively complete and more than 80 per cent of FY27 revenue already presold.
Questions
How much has Cedar Woods Properties upgraded its earnings guidance?
Endeavor Asset Management reported Cedar Woods upgraded FY26 net profit growth guidance from more than 20% to 30-35% in February 2026, supported by $748 million in presales, after an earlier upgrade from 10% to 15% growth in October 2025.
Why did Cedar Woods Properties shares fall sharply in March 2026?
Pengana Capital Group said Cedar Woods fell 20.54% in March 2026 amid broader weakness across residential developer stocks tied to rate uncertainty, even though the position had contributed 42.30% to returns over the prior 12 months.
How might proposed negative gearing changes affect Cedar Woods Properties?
SG Hiscock & Company said proposed changes to negative gearing on established properties weighed on broader property sentiment, but a carve-out for new builds could provide a medium-term tailwind specifically for Cedar Woods' greenfield development pipeline.
9 managers, 16 comments, with each manager's latest recorded position.
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