Change Financial's Card Growth Is Compressing Its Own Valuation

Fund managers say rapid platform growth is driving the operating leverage that was always expected to shrink the stock's earnings multiple

30 Apr 2026 · 4 min read

Merewether Capital's April 2026 monthly report captured Change Financial continuing to compound at a rapid clip. The manager said cards on the company's Vertexon payments platform grew 70 per cent on the prior year, driving 94 per cent EBITDA growth, with four new customers currently being onboarded including New Zealand fintech Hnry, which is migrating 30,000 business debit cards onto the platform.

CCA continued to grow strongly and generate profits and cashflow. CCA's cards on platform grew 70% on last year, driving 94% EBITDA growth.

— Merewether Capital, Monthly Report, April 2026

A maiden profit that drew in new shareholders

That momentum had already convinced DMX Asset Management to build a position in March 2026, when it participated in a selldown by a major shareholder. The manager said Change Financial delivered revenue growth of 29 per cent for the half year to 31 December 2025, increased underlying EBITDA by 350 per cent to $2.7 million, and recorded its maiden net profit after tax, alongside a roughly 15 per cent upgrade to FY26 EBITDA guidance to between $4.6 million and $5.7 million. Merewether Capital, describing the same half-year result in January 2026, noted active digital payment cards on the platform were up 66 per cent on the prior year, and said that adjusting for modest capitalised development spend, the stock traded around 15 times operating earnings at the top end of guidance, a multiple it called more than fair for a scaling digital payments platform.

A multiple built to compress as the business scales

Mereweather Capital's original July 2025 thesis anticipated exactly this kind of trajectory. The manager said Change Financial's FY26 guidance at the time implied more than 60 per cent of incremental revenue falling straight to EBITDA, and with management targeting more than 20 per cent revenue growth over the medium to long term, it expected the trading multiple, then around 20 times cash earnings after adjusting for capitalised development costs, to fall sharply as the business grew into its guidance.

FY26 guidance implies >60% of incremental revenue falling to EBITDA and with management stating they are targeting more than 20% revenue growth over the medium to long term, the trading multiple will begin falling sharply as the business grows.

— Mereweather Capital, Monthly Report, July 2025

What managers are watching next

With four new customers currently being onboarded, including the Hnry migration, and EBITDA growth running at 94 per cent year on year, the questions for managers are whether Change Financial continues to convert new client wins into the platform scale that has driven its operating leverage so far, and whether the multiple compression Mereweather Capital anticipated a year ago continues as guidance is met or exceeded.