Cogstate's Alzheimer's Niche Broadens Into Its Strongest Year Ever

A near-monopoly in clinical trial cognitive assessment expanded beyond Alzheimer's into new indications, with fund managers pointing to a valuation gap against a rival's sale to Thermo Fisher.

18 Sep 2026 · 3 min read

Cogstate has become one of the ASX's quieter compounding growth stories, holding near-monopoly share in cognitive assessment software for Alzheimer's and other neurological clinical trials, with clinical trial contracts more than doubling to US$89 million in its strongest year ever, as fund managers point to a valuation gap versus a US rival's acquisition by Thermo Fisher.

A near-monopoly niche with genuine momentum

Lakehouse Capital said it first discussed its Cogstate position in its 2024 Annual Letter, describing an industry leader in developing and commercialising computerised cognitive assessments for clinical trials and healthcare, specialising in brain health measurement for central nervous system conditions, having since captured a greater share of the expanding global CNS market with renewed momentum in clinical trial signings. Underwood Capital said Cogstate was again the best performer in its listed portfolio, driven by a positive AGM update highlighting sales activity hitting new records, with main competitor Clario Holdings acquired by Thermo Fisher Scientific during the month at what it considers a substantially higher multiple than where Cogstate currently trades, helping support its own valuation case.

One of CGS's main competitors, Clario Holdings, was acquired by Thermo Fisher Scientific during the month at what we consider to be a substantially higher multiple than where CGS currently trades, helping support the valuation.

— Underwood Capital, Monthly Report, October 2025

An upgrade masked by a downgrade

HD Capital Partners called the biggest December news an upgrade masked by a downgrade, explaining Cogstate provides software and services into clinical trials, with the software portion booked as license revenue at effectively 100 percent margin, recognised when the sales contract is executed and the software released, rather than accounted for gradually like typical SaaS-style revenue, a structure that can make headline numbers look weaker in a given period purely on timing rather than any underlying deterioration.

Broadening beyond Alzheimer's, and a channel partner distribution deal

Elston Asset Management said it had monitored Cogstate for years and only recently added it to the portfolio once substantial improvements in business quality met its investment criteria, having first looked at the business just over three years earlier and passed, given revenue was then highly concentrated toward Alzheimer's clinical trials with limited global distribution. Lakehouse Capital said Cogstate delivered the strongest year in its history, with clinical trial contracts more than doubling to US$89 million, underpinned by a deliberate broadening beyond Alzheimer's disease into a wider spread of central nervous system indications across psychiatry, sleep disorders and rare disease, alongside expanded distribution through a channel partner relationship.

Cogstate delivered the strongest year in its history, with clinical trial contracts more than doubling to US$89 million. Underpinning this was a deliberate broadening beyond Alzheimer's disease, into a wider spread of central nervous system indications across psychiatry, sleep disorders and rare disease.

— Lakehouse Capital, Annual Report, June 2026

Continued momentum into FY27

HD Capital Partners said it increasingly views Cogstate as entering an accelerated growth phase as drug development in Alzheimer's and other neurological conditions enters a golden age, holding nearly 100 percent share in its market niche. LSN Capital Partners said a strong fourth-quarter trading update increased confidence in the FY27 earnings outlook, with growth supported by expanding clinical indications and continued pharmaceutical investment in central nervous system research. Ellerston Capital said the business, historically focused on Australian laboratories, has expanded successfully with recurring revenue growth over the past year, tracking consistently against guidance of approximately $75 million to $85 million of revenue for the year.

What fund managers say they are watching next is continued broadening beyond Alzheimer's into psychiatry, sleep disorders and rare disease, delivery on the $75 million to $85 million FY revenue guidance, further channel partner distribution expansion, and whether the valuation gap versus Thermo Fisher's acquisition of Clario continues to close.