Computershare Splits Managers on Rates and a Tokenisation Scare

Fund managers disagree on interest rate direction, but several say fears of blockchain disruption to registry services are overdone

30 Jun 2026 · 4 min read

Share registry giant Computershare has become a proxy for interest rate expectations and, more recently, a live test case for how blockchain and tokenisation might reshape share registry services, splitting fund manager opinion on both fronts.

An interest rate beneficiary faces a de-rating

Alliance Bernstein's August 2025 review captured the core sensitivity: although FY25 results and FY26 guidance both met expectations, a decline in the US two-year yield was read as a negative signal for future margin income, prompting a de-rating in the stock's earnings multiple. Equity Trustees Asset Management exited its position in September 2025 for a related but different reason, noting Computershare had done well integrating its Wells Fargo acquisition and had been a big beneficiary of rising US cash rates, but with a period of lower rates and potentially lower growth ahead, and the share price having risen above its valuation, the fund judged it prudent to sell.

CPU has done very well integrating the Wells Fargo acquisition and has been a big beneficiary of rising cash rates in the US. They now face a period of lower rates and potentially lower growth in the US. The stock has performed well and given the share price has risen above our valuation, we felt it was prudent to exit our position.

— Equity Trustees Asset Management, Quarterly Report, September 2025

A split verdict on where rates are headed

By March 2026, with Australian rates seen heading in the opposite direction to the US, Plato Investment Management and Perpetual Asset Management landed on opposite sides of the trade. Plato called it a buy, arguing that with Australian interest rates looking set to rise over the following year, Computershare's earnings sensitivity worked in the stock's favour, even though the company had pointed to offsetting deal flow benefits when rates fall. Perpetual took a more neutral stance, noting the business had done a good job terming out its margin income to reduce rate sensitivity and was benefiting from improving capital markets activity, but flagged a fresh source of uncertainty: growing chatter around tokenisation in the US, including the New York Stock Exchange's exploration of a 24-hour instant settlement trading market, leaving Perpetual on the fence about the impact on Computershare's registry business.

Tokenisation fears trigger a de-rate, then a rebuttal

That uncertainty weighed on the stock through to May 2026, when Paradice Investment Management argued the de-rating tied to tokenisation fears was overdone. Paradice pointed to US regulatory rulings suggesting the transfer agent role remains secure even as more options emerge to hold shares in digital wallets, alongside genuine growth across employee share plans, registry services and corporate trust, improving IPO pipelines especially in Hong Kong, and steady mid-single-digit debt issuance growth.

Computershare is a buy for us. It's derated significantly over the past few months on tokenisation, or the fear that the role of Computershare, which is a transfer agent, would be disintermediated by blockchain. Now we don't think that would be the case. The US rulings have suggested that the role of the transfer agent remains secure, but you've got more options to hold shares in a digital wallet.

— Paradice Investment Management, Article, May 2026

A skeptic on blockchain, a believer in the rate trade

Alliance Bernstein's own May 2026 view backed Paradice on valuation while pushing back on the tokenisation narrative from a different angle, describing a sense of déjà vu around blockchain hype and pointing to the ASX's own attempt at blockchain infrastructure as evidence of how hard the transition from old to new technology actually is in practice. Alliance Bernstein was more focused on Computershare as a rate beneficiary at the margin, similar to insurers, in the prevailing environment. Endeavor Asset Management's June 2026 update showed the rate trade playing out in real time, with shares up 10 per cent that month as forward rate curves for FY27 moved higher, with the Global Corporate Trust business, contributing around 44 per cent of group EBITDA in the first half, remaining the key earnings driver, sensitive to both interest rates and issuance volumes.