Energy One's 250% Rally Survives a Growth Wobble and a Takeover Rejection

A software business once plagued by cybersecurity issues became a dominant wholesale energy trading platform, and management just turned down an offshore buyer.

31 Aug 2026 · 3 min read

Energy One, described by Seneca Financial Solutions as the Iress for electricity traders, rallied more than 250 percent from around $5 to $6 as it recovered from a chequered history of cybersecurity issues and missed earnings to become a dominant wholesale energy trading software provider, before an indiscriminate software sell-off and a slight ARR growth miss tested conviction, and management's rejection of an offshore takeover approach confirmed the board's confidence in the standalone growth story.

From chequered history to dominant software provider

Seneca Financial Solutions said the stock was up around 250 percent, describing it as the Iress for electricity traders, a business with a chequered history including past cybersecurity issues and missed earnings, bought when the stock was $5 to $6 a share, since recovered and inflected into genuine profitability as it rolled out across new markets. DMX Asset Management, a long-held holder, described Energy One as the dominant provider of wholesale energy trading software in Australia and Europe, now targeting 15 to 20 percent annual recurring revenue growth alongside 30 percent EBITDA cash margins.

Energy One, I think that's up 250 odd percent. They're the Iress for electricity traders. Essentially it's been a business that had a little bit of a chequered history, some cybersecurity issues, missed earnings back in the past, and the stock was five or six bucks when we first bought it.

— Seneca Financial Solutions, Article, October 2025

A strong FY25 inflection point

DMX Asset Management said Energy One contributed meaningfully as shares rose 25 percent, attracting broader investor attention after passing a key inflection point with a strong FY25 result aligned with its aspirational forecasts of 15 to 20 percent revenue growth alongside margin expansion, though the fund trimmed its position into the continued price strength. Pendal Group said Energy One was the single largest positive contributor, up 25.1 percent, providing software, outsourced operations and consulting services to wholesale energy and carbon trading markets across Europe, the UK and Asia Pacific, expecting 15 to 20 percent growth in average recurring revenue underpinned by a solid pipeline. Cerutty Macro Fund said Energy One provides exposure to the growing complexity of an increasingly decentralised power grid, as renewable generation and battery storage reshape how energy is traded, balanced and managed, running a high-quality, high-margin software business. Wilson Asset Management credited Energy One's 13 percent top-line compound annual growth rate in Australia over many years as testament to its ability to win customer wallet share through platform enhancements and strategic acquisitions.

An indiscriminate sell-off, and a slight target miss

Yarra Capital Management said it really likes Energy One, seeing an opportunity because the broader software sell-off had been almost indiscriminate across the board, with Energy One's software addressing an energy market that continues evolving as more solar and wind generation comes online. DMX Asset Management said growth expectations had been somewhat tempered after Energy One confirmed it remained comfortable with FY26 consensus revenue of around $72 million and EBITDA of around $15 million at a 20 to 22 percent margin, but now expects FY26 annual recurring revenue growth of 13 percent, below the 15 to 20 percent target previously communicated to the market.

It now expects FY26 ARR growth of 13%, which will be below the 15-20% target previously communicated to the market.

— DMX Asset Management, Monthly Report, May 2026

A rejected takeover confirms board confidence

Yarra Capital Management said it liked that management rejected an offshore takeover approach during reporting season, with Energy One providing software supporting increasingly complex electricity markets involving batteries, solar and wind, backed by a strong Australian base and growing European presence, with a recent acquisition seen as expanding its addressable market and widening its lead over competitors.

What fund managers say they are watching next is whether ARR growth reaccelerates back toward the 15 to 20 percent target, integration of the recent acquisition and its addressable market expansion, continued European presence growth, and whether the board's decision to reject the takeover proves the right call for long-term shareholders.