Greatland Resources' Rocky IPO Start Gives Way to Gold Price Recovery

A surprise production downgrade weeks after listing damaged credibility, but rising gold prices and a detailed Havieron study have fund managers calling it undervalued.

14 Oct 2026 · 4 min read

Greatland Resources delivered one of the ASX's most dramatic IPO reversals in 2025, falling sharply just five weeks after listing on a surprise production downgrade that severely damaged management credibility, before a recovering gold price and a detailed Havieron project pre-feasibility study helped the stock rebound, with fund managers increasingly arguing it remains the most undervalued gold producer on the ASX.

A disastrous start to public life

First Sentier Investors exited its position following a disappointing post-listing update, noting Greatland listed in Australia in late June 2025, and just five weeks later its quarterly production report downgraded FY26 production 11 percent versus prospectus forecasts, raised cost guidance 4 percent, and increased capital expenditure from $80 million to $360 million, significantly impacting valuation. Ausbil Investment Management said the stock was hit hard in July after the surprise downgrade barely a month after IPO, calling it an incredibly disappointing outcome that severely damaged management credibility given the proximity to listing, though it later recovered due to a strong gold price late in the quarter. Prime Value Asset Management said it is rare for the fund to invest in IPOs given the limited information available at listing, but it made an exception for Greatland Resources as one of only two IPOs it invested in that year, expressing confidence its usual principles would hold up despite the rocky start.

The downgrade was an incredibly disappointing outcome that severely damaged management credibility given the proximity to IPO. It also came with an increase in cost guidance. Credibility in the public markets is difficult to rebuild.

— Ausbil Investment Management, Quarterly Report, September 2025

A rebound built on gold price strength

Firetrail Investments said the stock rebounded sharply in September as the gold price rose around 12 percent to near record highs above US$3,800 an ounce, and continues to see Greatland as the most undervalued gold producer on the ASX, expecting a re-rating as the market gains confidence following its disappointing July quarterly. Yarra Capital Management, underweight, said Greatland outperformed as gold rose 14 percent and copper 17 percent, though it sees better long-term value in gold peers Genesis Minerals, Vault Minerals and Bellevue Gold, preferring Capstone Copper for copper exposure.

We continue to see Greatland as the most undervalued gold producer on the ASX and expect a rerating to take place as the market gains confidence.

— Firetrail Investments, Monthly Report, September 2025

A detailed Havieron pre-feasibility study, and opportunistic acquisition timing

Ellerston Capital said Greatland released a pre-feasibility study for the Havieron gold project near its existing Telfer operation, with total capital expenditure of $1.738 billion in line with expectations, a throughput rate of 3.9 million tonnes a year averaging nine years of 266,000 ounces of steady annual production, noting Telfer has historically been a high-cost operation that failed to generate meaningful free cash flow under prior owners. Oracle Advisory Group said Greatland bought Newmont's Telfer mine in 2024 along with a 70 percent stake in Havieron, having already owned the other 30 percent, as Newmont looked to offload non-core assets, with gold trading at half its current price when Greatland made the acquisition, calling it good timing.

Greatland bought Newmont's Telfer mine in 2024 and their 70% stake in the Havieron project, as Newmont looked to offload non-core assets. Gold was at half the price when Greatland bought these assets, so it was good timing for the company.

— Oracle Advisory Group, Quarterly Report, December 2025

A closing valuation quirk, and long-term growth conviction

Seneca Financial Solutions offered a wry note of caution about the $8 billion market-capped company highlighting the higher-grade component in its West Dome open-pit ore reserve at just 0.53 grams per tonne gold, joking it would hate to see the low-grade component. Argonaut Funds Management said it took a large position after Greatland, then UK-listed, acquired the Telfer and Havieron assets from Newmont at a time the market was split on whether Telfer was an asset or a liability, conviction that paid off once the listing moved to Australia, seeing it capable of growing gold output from a current 150,000 to 250,000 ounce range toward 500,000 to 700,000 ounces by 2030, with dividends likely to follow.

What fund managers say they are watching next is delivery of Havieron's nine-year, 266,000 ounce steady production profile, whether Telfer's historically high-cost operation finally generates meaningful free cash flow given the gold price surge, progress toward the 500,000 to 700,000 ounce production target by 2030, and whether reserve grade quality proves a genuine constraint as Seneca's comment suggests.