IGO Limited's Long Wait for a Lithium Recovery Finally Pays Off
A dramatic spodumene price surge rewarded patient holders of IGO's Greenbushes stake, even as ongoing Kwinana refinery losses and a plant fire tested the rally.
7 Sep 2026 · 3 min read
In short
IGO Limited surged as much as 58% in December 2025 on a dramatic lithium price recovery, with spodumene prices rising 37% in a single month on supply concerns tied to CATL's Jianxiawo mine in China.
IGO's stake in the world-class Greenbushes lithium operation had delivered among the weakest returns of any First Samuel holding in recent years before the price recovery finally paid off.
A fire at Greenbushes' CGP3 plant caused less damage than feared, but ongoing losses at the Kwinana lithium refinery continue to eat into cash flows, even as IGO reinstated its dividend in August 2026.
IGO Limited surged as much as 58 percent in December on a dramatic lithium price recovery, driven by supply concerns at a major Chinese mine and improving demand, delivering fund managers a windfall after IGO's Greenbushes stake had been one of the worst-performing investments in recent years, before a fire at Greenbushes' CGP3 plant and ongoing losses at Kwinana tempered enthusiasm through 2026.
A long-suffering position finally pays off
First Samuel said it had remained patient with its investment in IGO, which after being a strong contributor to performance in FY23 had delivered among the weakest returns of any holding in recent years, with its lithium interests spanning a stake in the world-class Greenbushes operation and an interest through a joint venture in the Kwinana lithium refinery. Pendal Group said the stock fell 7.7 percent on a poor production result that was offset by improving lithium market dynamics, with Greenbushes going through a weak patch on lower grades expected to persist into the December quarter before rebounding in the second half if spodumene prices reached US$1,000 a tonne and IGO reduced cash burn at Kwinana. Ellerston Capital said the stock rose 26.1 percent as the spodumene price, after a 19 percent October gain, moved from US$977 to US$1,237 a tonne before settling at US$1,150, with sell-side analysts turning more positive on the lithium outlook given strong demand for energy storage systems running ahead of installation capacity. Oracle Advisory Group said IGO and Newmont were its best materials sector performers, describing Greenbushes as probably the single best lithium mine in the world, owned 49 percent by Albemarle and 51 percent through the Tianqi-IGO joint venture.
After being a strong contributor to performance in FY-23, the company has delivered among the weakest returns in recent years. IGO's lithium interests include a stake in the world-class Greenbushes Lithium Operation and an interest through a JV in the Kwinana Lithium refinery.
— First Samuel, Article, November 2025
Spodumene prices go parabolic
Solaris Investment Management, overweight, said the stock surged 58.3 percent alongside the broader lithium sector recovery, with improving Chinese demand and rising spodumene prices benefiting IGO's Greenbushes interest, further supported by balance sheet improvement and a deleveraging strategy. Spheria Asset Management said the stock returned 21 percent on no company-specific news, continuing its strong run driven by a broad improvement in lithium sector sentiment, with the spodumene price up more than 60 percent since the start of November. Ellerston Capital said spodumene rose from US$1,150 to US$1,575 a tonne, up a staggering 37 percent in a single month, with the widely held view of an expected 2026 oversupply now looking more like a deficit, premised on concerns over CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine in Yichun, Jiangxi.
The spodumene price went from US$1150/t to US$1575/t, up a staggering 37% this month. The widely held view of an expected oversupply in 2026 is now looking more like a deficit.
— Ellerston Capital, Monthly Report, December 2025
A fire, and continued Kwinana losses, temper the rally
Pendal Group said the stock rose 4.7 percent on a mixed result, with Greenbushes performing slightly better than expected and FY27 production guidance in line, while damage from a fire at the CGP3 plant was not as bad as feared, with the plant due to restart within days, though continued weakness at Kwinana kept eating into cash flows from Greenbushes. Pendal separately said the stock rose 2.6 percent on substantially improved financial results given the sharp lithium price improvement, with the dividend reinstated, a slight surprise given uncertainty around the timing of cash flows from the TLEA joint venture, noting IGO should benefit from a quicker than expected recovery at CGP3 following the fire, with resolving cash outflows at Kwinana the key remaining issue.
What fund managers say they are watching next is resolution of the ongoing losses at the Kwinana lithium refinery, the pace of CGP3's recovery following the fire, whether spodumene prices hold at elevated levels amid the CATL mine-driven supply concern, and delivery of the reinstated dividend given uncertain TLEA joint venture cash flow timing.
Questions
Why did IGO Limited surge 58% in December 2025?
IGO Limited surged as spodumene lithium prices rose 37% in a single month, driven by supply concerns over CATL's Jianxiawo mine in China combined with improving Chinese demand, benefiting IGO's stake in the world-class Greenbushes lithium operation.
Why has IGO Limited's Kwinana lithium refinery been a drag on performance?
IGO's joint venture interest in the Kwinana lithium refinery has continued generating losses, eating into cash flows from the otherwise strong Greenbushes operation, remaining a key issue fund managers are watching.
Did the fire at Greenbushes' CGP3 plant cause major damage?
No. Pendal Group notes the damage was not as bad as feared, with the plant due to restart within days, and IGO subsequently benefited from a quicker than expected recovery.
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