Mineral Resources' turnaround gathers pace as Onslow hits full capacity

L1 Capital, Ten Cap and Pendal Group detail the balance sheet repair and lithium recovery behind the rally

6 Jul 2026 · 8 min read

Mineral Resources has gone from a governance crisis and a share price collapse of nearly 85% to one of the best-performing large-cap turnarounds on the ASX, as its Onslow Iron project reached full capacity and lithium prices staged a sharp recovery.

Ten Cap said in a Monthly Report in April 2026 that Mineral Resources shares rallied as the company produced a strong quarterly report for the March quarter, beating expectations across all three divisions, including mining services, while lithium prices and a resilient iron ore price helped cash flow generation and reduced previously heavy gearing levels.

Katana Asset Management made a similar point in a Monthly Report in April 2026, saying the lithium market re-rating is supporting MIN's profitability, while Onslow Iron's resilience through the recent Pilbara cyclone further validates the haul road, and that with ongoing balance sheet deleveraging, MIN is slowly moving into growth mode.

How L1 Capital's thesis held through the worst of it

The fullest account of how the business got here came from L1 Capital in a Quarterly Report in March 2026, which described Mineral Resources as a mining services provider and iron ore and lithium miner whose core competency is efficiently designing, building and operating mining assets. The manager said its Mining Services business, providing services to third parties such as Rio Tinto, has grown EBITDA at over 20% per annum over the past seven years and is on track to generate around $1 billion in annual EBITDA from FY27, underpinned by long-life contracts not directly impacted by commodity price volatility.

L1 Capital said that over the past 18 months the company had been divisive for investors, with the share price at its lows falling as much as around 85%, from roughly $90 to $15, driven by a rapidly falling lithium price, governance issues, ramp-up problems and rising capital costs at Onslow Iron. The manager said it took advantage of the extreme negative sentiment to accumulate a substantial position, becoming the largest shareholder outside founder Chris Ellison, while engaging extensively with the board and management on renewal, governance frameworks and balance sheet repair.

Since April 2025, when the shares reached lows of ~A$15/sh (currently ~A$58/sh), the company has seen material improvements across all aspects of its business, including underlying market conditions, operational delivery, balance sheet positioning and general corporate governance frameworks.

— L1 Capital, Quarterly Report, March 2026

Onslow Iron: from troubled ramp-up to nameplate capacity

The Onslow Iron project has been the single biggest driver of the recovery. L1 Capital said in a Monthly Report in October 2025 that the project achieved its nameplate 35 million tonnes per annum run rate over the prior three months, satisfying the conditions for an additional $200 million contingent payment tied to the earlier sale of a 49% interest in the haul road to Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners, a milestone the manager called a significant derisking event.

The manager's March 2026 Quarterly Report added detail on the scale of the achievement, noting Onslow has neither rail nor deepwater port access, requiring a dedicated 150-kilometre haul road and numerous transhipping boats, an operation without major precedent in Western Australia. At US$100 a tonne iron ore, L1 Capital estimated Mineral Resources' share of Onslow's EBITDA exceeds $1 billion a year, plus around $450 million from mining services contracts and haul road charges independent of commodity moves, for total project EBITDA of roughly $1.5 billion annually.

Balance sheet repair through asset sales

With leverage having peaked at around 5.9 times net debt to EBITDA in FY25, Mineral Resources moved through a series of asset sales to bring gearing back within its target range. L1 Capital's Quarterly Report in December 2025 detailed the sale of a 30% interest in the Wodgina and Mt Marion lithium assets to POSCO for A$1.2 billion, representing a roughly 45% valuation premium to consensus net asset value, alongside the earlier A$1.3 billion sale of a 49% interest in the Onslow haul road to Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners and an A$845 million sale of oil and gas tenements to Hancock Prospecting.

Pendal Group gave the most recent update on that deleveraging in a Newsletter in May 2026, saying Mineral Resources reported a strong Q3 result with FY26 production guidance upgraded again at both Wodgina and Mt Marion, and volume guidance also raised at Onslow and the Services division. Net debt dropped to A$4.5 billion, down A$400 million since the end of December, with the A$1.2 billion POSCO deal due to close in FY27, though the manager flagged diesel cost pressures coming through at both Onslow and the Pilbara operations and in lithium production.

Net debt dropped to A$4.5bn (-A$400m since end December), with the A$1.2bn Posco deal due to close in FY27.

— Pendal Group, Newsletter, May 2026

Governance refresh under a new chair

The governance overhaul that underpinned investor confidence began with the appointment of Malcolm Bundey as chairman. L1 Capital said in a Webinar in October 2025 that Bundey, effective from 30 June 2025, had hit the ground running, appointing four new non-executive directors including Lawrie Tremaine and Ross Carroll, describing the board renewal as a critical step forward, and noting Bundey had stated publicly a focus on inorganic investments to accelerate balance sheet strength.

So, whilst lithium prices grab headlines, the underlying business is quietly setting itself up for long-term value creation. Mineral Resources is increasingly becoming a more diversified business.

— L1 Capital, Webinar, October 2025

Not every manager was fully convinced by the governance progress at the time. Antares Capital said in a Monthly Report in October 2025 that it added to Mineral Resources on the back of continued evidence operations were improving, particularly at Onslow, while retaining reservations about MIN governance. Yarra Capital Management said in the same month it remained underweight the stock, as at current price levels the lithium assets continued to struggle to generate positive cash flow, adding pressure to an already stretched balance sheet.

Lithium's recovery, and how far it has come

The lithium price recovery that Ten Cap and Katana pointed to in April 2026 has been building since late 2025. L1 Capital said in its March 2026 Quarterly Report that lithium chemical prices had risen from around US$8,000 a tonne to US$23,000, while spodumene prices rose from around US$600 a tonne to roughly US$2,200, driven by surprising upside in energy storage demand and disruptions to Chinese lepidolite and other supply.

Lanyon Investment Fund described the mood shift in a Quarterly Report in December 2025, saying its largest position in Mineral Resources ended the year 32% higher, with shares remaining materially undervalued and a cooling of the widespread hysteria that had coincided with significant covering of an elevated short-sold position.

What managers are watching next

With Onslow at nameplate capacity, net debt down to A$4.5 billion, the POSCO lithium transaction due to close in FY27 and a refreshed board now over a year into its tenure, the managers who built positions through the depths of the sell-off, led by L1 Capital, say the remaining watch-items are further lithium volume growth from Wodgina and Mt Marion and confirmation the mining services division reaches its targeted $1 billion in annual EBITDA.