New Hope Corporation Rallies as Middle East Conflict Lifts Coal

Fund managers say disrupted oil and LNG supply chains have pushed Asian demand back toward thermal coal, benefiting New Hope

25 Jun 2026 · 4 min read

Thermal coal producer New Hope Corporation became one of the standout beneficiaries of the March 2026 Iran conflict, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted Qatari LNG supply pushed Asian buyers back toward coal.

A war in the Middle East reshapes energy markets

Ellerston Capital's March 2026 update laid out the mechanism: the Iran war that began on 28 February led to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, restricting around 8 million barrels per day of oil flow, roughly 7.5 per cent of global production. Oil prices rose around 50 per cent and gas prices doubled after damage to 17 per cent of Qatar's LNG production, which supplies around 20 per cent of global capacity. As a direct consequence, demand for thermal coal as an alternative energy source spiked, with the Asian benchmark price rising around 22 per cent, and New Hope among the major beneficiaries.

The Iran war which kicked off on 28th of February has created absolute havoc in energy markets. As a consequence, the demand for thermal coal as an alternative energy source spiked, with the Asian benchmark price rising ~22%. Thermal coal producers NHC, as well as other local peers, were major beneficiaries.

— Ellerston Capital, Monthly Report, March 2026

A sharp share price rally across multiple holders

Investors Mutual Limited reported New Hope was the best performer in its portfolio for the quarter, up 48 per cent, and used the strength to trim its position and redeploy capital, while remaining constructive on the long-term thermal coal outlook. Spheria Asset Management and BKI Investment Company both reported the stock up around 27 per cent for the month, with BKI noting a 67.1 per cent gain for the 12 months to March 2026, describing its holding as deliberate and disciplined, grounded in valuation, balance sheet strength and cash generation, while remaining mindful that energy transitions rarely proceed in a straight line. The rally moved sharply against Sage Capital's short position in the stock, which it flagged as having been directly hurt by the same Middle East-driven energy commodity spike.

A low-cost, well-managed miner drawing renewed interest

Seneca Financial Solutions' commentary through 2026 framed New Hope, alongside Stanmore, as a coal opportunity where pessimism may have gone too far, combining low-cycle pricing with cheap equity valuations and an established producer profile under a strong management team. By May 2026, Seneca reported New Hope had just pressed go on another buyback, describing it as a well-managed, low-cost miner well placed to capture further gains in the coal price.

We like New Hope, NHC. It's low cycle pricing combined with cheap equity valuations. New Hope is thermal out of New South Wales and Queensland. Really well-managed coal miner. They've just pressed go on another buyback. Plenty of dividends, as I'm sure the audience knows.

— Seneca Financial Solutions, Presentation, May 2026

A business built on Asian export demand

Longwave Capital's June 2026 update reminded investors of the structural exposure underpinning the thesis: despite all its assets being located domestically, New Hope's earnings are almost entirely tied to export coal markets rather than domestic Australian demand, with around 90 per cent of coal revenue generated from offshore or globally price-linked customers led by Japan, China and Taiwan. Longwave noted the company's growth remains far more sensitive to Asian seaborne thermal coal demand and Newcastle benchmark pricing than to anything happening in the domestic Australian market, with Japan temporarily lifting operational restrictions on coal-fired power stations to conserve LNG through the 2026-27 fiscal year adding to the tailwind.