Newmont Corporation: record cashflow and buybacks survive a gold price correction

A near-parabolic 2025 rally built Newmont into some funds' largest holdings on record free cash flow and an expanding buyback, before a sharp mid-2026 gold price correction and a community class action over its Cadia mine tested how durable that conviction really is.

30 Jun 2026 · 7 min read

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) spent much of 2025 rewarding fund managers handsomely as gold prices surged to record highs, before a sharp correction and a series of company-specific governance issues tested conviction through mid-2026. First Sentier Investors captured the scale of the initial rally in September 2025, noting a strong second-quarter update and record free cash flow of US$1.7 billion alongside EBITDA of approximately US$3 billion pushed the stock 48.5% higher, with the company doubling its buyback from US$3 billion to US$6 billion.

Newmont Corporation has committed to returning capital to shareholders through a combination of buybacks and dividends, reinforcing our confidence in its disciplined capital management and operational resilience. We remain attracted to the company as it is generating strong cash flow with no gold hedging.

First Sentier Investors, Quarterly Report, September 2025

Positions grow so large that managers start trimming

As the rally extended, several funds found themselves managing a genuine concentration problem. Clime Investment Management and Sterling Managed Investments both trimmed their Newmont positions in August 2025 for portfolio and risk management purposes following very strong price performance, while maintaining the stock as an attractive long-term holding given its reserve life, gold grade, diversification and balance sheet. Oracle Advisory Group described its own experience even more starkly in March 2026, noting Newmont, its largest holding by some margin, had ballooned to over 14% of the portfolio, prompting the fund to take profits even while it continued to believe the outlook for gold remained positive.

Tactical rotation as the sector gets crowded

Not every manager stayed the course through the run-up. Ten Cap sold its Newmont position in September 2025, rotating into Northern Star instead to capture relative value, before reversing course entirely by December, reallocating its gold exposure back from Northern Star into Newmont on the view that the company's cost reduction initiatives, pruning of lower-grade assets, and capital returns to shareholders would let it outperform other gold names. Alliance Bernstein and PM Capital both trimmed gold exposure in October 2025 following a sharp intra-month swing that saw Newmont hit a fresh all-time high before falling 21%, as concerns grew that the physical gold price had run too hard, too fast.

A CY26 guidance wobble, then a sharper correction

The first sign of a more durable pullback came with 2026 production guidance. Pendal Group reported in February 2026 that Newmont's strong Q4 beat was offset by weaker cost and production guidance for CY26, with roughly 200,000 ounces expected to come off consensus, even as the company's US$2.1 billion net cash position and a new capital allocation framework fixing dividends at US$1.1 billion a year kept the buyback story intact. The correction deepened sharply by June 2026: Alliance Bernstein and PM Capital both reported Newmont falling alongside a broader gold sell-off, with PM Capital noting local shares declined 11% in June, tracking a 12% drop in the physical gold price as stickier US inflation shifted rate-hike expectations and lifted the US dollar and Treasury yields.

We continue to believe Newmont remains well positioned over the medium term, supported by its diversified global asset base, strong balance sheet, significant free-cash-flow generation and disciplined capital-return framework.

Alliance Bernstein, Monthly Report, June 2026

Governance and community issues draw active engagement

Beyond the gold price, Newmont's post-Newcrest integration has brought company-specific issues to the fore. Paradice Investment Management disclosed in June 2026 that it had continued ongoing engagement with Newmont on safety performance after the company suffered another fatality, and had separately engaged on environmental management at the Cadia mine, a former Newcrest asset, seeking updates on safety system upgrades and how financial incentive structures were being reviewed. The fund noted the local community around Cadia has commenced a class action against Newmont, prompting it to seek to understand the company's due diligence on the asset's risks prior to the Newcrest transaction, as well as its responsiveness to community concerns regarding air and water pollutants since taking operational control.

What managers are watching next

With Blackwattle Investment Partners describing Newmont in March 2026 as the largest, lowest-cost and most diversified gold miner globally and Alphinity Investment Management naming it one of its most significant active bets given gold's role as geopolitical insurance, the catalysts fund managers are watching most closely are whether the gold price stabilises after its mid-2026 correction, the outcome of the Cadia community class action and Paradice's ongoing safety engagement, and whether Newmont's cost discipline and capital return framework continue to justify the premium positioning several of its largest holders have built.