NexGen Energy's Uranium Rally Cools, but Takeover Speculation Heats Up

A sharp rally on surging uranium prices gave way to a sector-wide pullback, even as fund managers increasingly bet the world's best undeveloped uranium project ends up in BHP's or Cameco's hands.

11 Sep 2026 · 3 min read

NexGen Energy rallied more than 33 percent in a single month in January as uranium prices surged and its Rook I project neared federal approval, before a broad uranium sector de-rating pulled the stock back through June, and by September fund managers were framing it as a likely takeover target trading at a fraction of its estimated worth.

A rare tier-one asset in a resurgent uranium market

Argonaut Funds Management said it was most bullish on NexGen, describing its Arrow project in Canada's Athabasca Basin as an emerging global leader with final environmental approvals likely in the first half of 2026. Wilson Asset Management noted uranium prices rose 25 percent in January on an ongoing supply and demand imbalance and increasing focus on data centres, while Firetrail Investments said spot and long-term prices reached around US$100 and US$93 a pound respectively as NexGen further delineated a satellite orebody. Ten Cap said the company was expected to conclude the federal approval process for Rook I in February, a key de-risking milestone bringing renewed investor attention as permitting risk reduced. Milford Asset Management, calling NexGen its preferred uranium developer, said the stock rose 33.4 percent as sentiment toward nuclear power improved further, with governments and large technology companies seeking reliable, low-carbon power sources for AI and data infrastructure investment. Seneca Financial Solutions named NexGen its number two pick, likening it to a repeat of the De Grey Mining takeover, viewing the Arrow deposit's grade and scale as a rare tier-one asset, with Cameco seen as the logical acquirer given its nearby Athabasca Basin operations and need to refill a maturing production pipeline.

The Arrow uranium deposit's grade and scale are seen as a rare tier-1 asset, with Cameco viewed as the logical acquirer. Seneca sees a 30%+ takeover premium as achievable once the project de-risks.

— Seneca Financial Solutions, Article, January 2026

A broad sector pullback, not a company problem

Paradice Investment Management said the stock fell 13.1 percent as uranium equities consolidated following a very strong run, with the spot price sitting sideways at US$85 a pound, while the more important long-term contract price kept climbing to US$94 a pound, its highest level since 2008, with construction at Rook I continuing to progress. L1 Capital said its long position fell 17 percent alongside the broader uranium complex on general commodity risk-off sentiment, even as spot uranium prices actually rose modestly. Antares Capital said its overweight position detracted amid the broader sector de-rating despite no company-specific news, trimming as quantitative signals turned negative while still viewing the pullback as a potential opportunity to add. Ellerston Capital said the stock fell 13 percent for the quarter as spot prices cooled from earlier highs, a move it noted was counter to rising longer-term contract prices, which it views as more reflective of the sector's underlying supply and demand.

By September: the world's best undeveloped uranium project, priced for a takeover

Argonaut Funds Management said NexGen holds the highest-quality uranium project globally, low cost and very high grade, targeting production of up to 30 million pounds a year from around 2030 to 2032. Katana Asset Management went further, calling it the largest, highest-grade, best undeveloped uranium project in the world by a long margin, arguing that on a 10 times EBITDA multiple the stock would be worth around $50 a share against a current price near $15, and said it was reasonably confident NexGen would eventually be taken out by either BHP or Cameco.

If we were to place NexGen on a 10 times EBITDA multiple, it would place the stock on a valuation about $50 per share versus current price around about $15 per share. We're reasonably confident that it will be taken out by either BHP or Cameco.

— Katana Asset Management, Article, September 2026

What fund managers say they are watching next is completion of remaining federal and environmental approvals for Rook I, continued construction progress toward the targeted 30 million pounds of annual production, whether takeover speculation involving Cameco or BHP materialises into a formal approach, and whether the long-term uranium contract price, now at its highest since 2008, keeps decoupling favourably from the more volatile spot price.