Nufarm's Turnaround Finally Delivers Its First Good News in Years

A cyclical pricing recovery for crop protection products, boosted by rising fish oil prices, is driving earnings upgrades and rapid balance sheet deleveraging.

30 Sep 2026 · 3 min read

Nufarm delivered the first genuinely good news in years for long-suffering shareholders, with first-half FY26 EBITDA guidance up 17 percent and full-year guidance up 26 percent, as a Middle East conflict-driven cyclical setup for crop protection products and rising fish oil prices combined to accelerate earnings growth and rapid balance sheet deleveraging.

A turnaround story finally starting to play out

Wilson Asset Management's Oberg sees Nufarm as a turnaround story, with improving earnings and balance sheet repair driving upside, describing a very similar scenario to prior cycles and suggesting the share price could double from here if execution holds. First Samuel said Nufarm reported the first good news in the stock for a number of years, with first-half FY26 EBITDA guidance of A$239 million to A$244 million representing around 17 percent growth year on year, net debt decreasing A$130 million to A$1.23 billion with last-twelve-month leverage at 3.6 times, full-year EBITDA forecast at A$381 million, up 26 percent on FY25, with leverage expected to fall to around 2.1 times by year-end as chemical pricing showed genuine improvement.

First-half FY26 EBITDA guidance of A$239-244 million represents approximately 17% growth year-over-year. Net debt decreased A$130 million to A$1.23 billion, with last-twelve-month leverage at 3.6x. Full-year EBITDA is forecast at A$381 million, up 26% on FY25.

— First Samuel, Article, April 2026

A cyclical setup driven by conflict and fish oil prices

Maple-Brown Abbott said Nufarm became a recent investment following the outbreak of the Iran-US conflict, seeing a cyclical setup for crop protection products driven by supply chain challenges lifting pricing, alongside rising fish oil prices boosting the company's Omega-3 seeds business, driving material earnings upgrades and rapid balance sheet deleveraging, with the subsequent trading update showing the thesis starting to play out. Asymmetric Asset Management, holding a small position, said interim results were positively received, with the share price gaining 23 percent, underlying profit growing 35 percent, and both free cash flow and net debt metrics improving, with the highlight being improved performance from the Seed Technologies division, the basis for its original investment, encompassing Hybrid Seeds alongside an emerging omega-3 platform.

I see a cyclical setup for crop protection products (driven by supply chain challenges lifting pricing) and rising fish oil prices (boosting their Omega-3 seeds business) driving material earnings upgrades and rapid balance sheet deleveraging.

— Maple-Brown Abbott, Article, May 2026

Takeover speculation, then a valuation-driven exit

Asymmetric Asset Management said Nufarm contributed positively with a double-digit gain despite the absence of company-specific news, possibly benefiting from media speculation that potential acquirers remain interested in its Seed business. Ryder Capital said it exited its position on valuation grounds after a strong re-rating over the prior three months, while continuing to trim other selective holdings.

What fund managers say they are watching next is whether the crop protection pricing improvement and Omega-3 fish oil tailwind continue supporting earnings, delivery of the roughly 2.1 times leverage target by year-end, whether takeover speculation around the Seed Technologies division materialises into a formal approach, and whether the doubling thesis Wilson Asset Management outlined continues playing out.