Nufarm's turnaround thesis builds on crop protection pricing and Omega-3 upside
A cyclical upswing in crop protection pricing, a rising fish oil price boosting its Omega-3 seeds business, and a sharper cost-out program have fund managers framing Nufarm as a turnaround story with earnings and balance sheet repair both playing out at once.
31 May 2026 · 4 min read
In short
Wilson Asset Management describes Nufarm as a turnaround story similar to prior cycles, arguing the share price could double from current levels if execution holds on improving earnings and balance sheet repair.
Maple-Brown Abbott initiated a position following the outbreak of the Iran/US conflict, citing a cyclical setup for crop protection pricing and rising fish oil prices boosting Nufarm's Omega-3 seeds business.
Asymmetric Asset Management reported Nufarm's share price gained 23% on a first-half result showing underlying profit up 35%, with the improved Seed Technologies division, the original basis for its investment, driving the outperformance.
Fund managers have begun framing Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF) as a genuine turnaround story through 2026, pointing to a combination of cyclical pricing tailwinds and a company-specific balance sheet repair program. Wilson Asset Management put the bull case most directly, describing Nufarm as a turnaround with improving earnings and balance sheet repair driving upside, and drawing a comparison to prior cycles the fund had seen play out for the company before.
Nufarm as a turnaround story, with improving earnings and balance sheet repair driving upside. Very similar scenario to prior cycles... if execution holds, the share price could double from here.
Wilson Asset Management, Article, April 2026
A geopolitical catalyst for crop protection pricing
The catalyst that drew in new capital was, somewhat unusually, a geopolitical event. Maple-Brown Abbott initiated its position in Nufarm following the outbreak of the Iran/US conflict, citing a cyclical setup for crop protection products driven by supply chain challenges lifting pricing, alongside rising fish oil prices boosting the company's Omega-3 seeds business. The fund said the subsequent company trading update showed the thesis starting to play out in practice: first-half earnings came in ahead of consensus, net debt fell around $130 million versus guidance for a flat outcome, and management announced an additional $50 million cost-out program for FY27.
The Seed Technologies division does the heavy lifting
Asymmetric Asset Management, holding a smaller position in the stock, reported the market's reaction to the same result was emphatic, with the share price gaining 23% after underlying profit grew 35% and both free cash flow and net debt metrics improved. The fund attributed the result's highlight to improved performance from the Seed Technologies division, which encompasses Hybrid Seeds along with an emerging Omega-3 platform and a bioenergy platform built around carinata seed, a renewable fuel source where Nufarm has partnered with bp to produce sustainable aviation fuel.
What managers are watching next
With balance sheet repair now visibly ahead of guidance and an additional cost-out program layered on top of a cyclical pricing upswing in crop protection, the case for further re-rating rests on whether the Seed Technologies platform, and its Omega-3 and sustainable aviation fuel optionality via the bp partnership, can continue to outperform the core crop protection business that first drew managers back to the stock.
Questions
Why do fund managers see Nufarm as a turnaround story?
Wilson Asset Management describes Nufarm as a turnaround similar to prior cycles, with improving earnings and balance sheet repair driving upside, arguing the share price could double if execution continues to hold.
What drove Maple-Brown Abbott to initiate a position in Nufarm?
Maple-Brown Abbott initiated its position following the outbreak of the Iran/US conflict, citing a cyclical setup for crop protection pricing driven by supply chain challenges and rising fish oil prices boosting Nufarm's Omega-3 seeds business.
What is Nufarm's Seed Technologies division?
Nufarm's Seed Technologies division encompasses Hybrid Seeds, an emerging Omega-3 platform, and a bioenergy platform built around carinata seed, which Nufarm uses in partnership with bp to produce sustainable aviation fuel.
6 managers, 12 comments, with each manager's latest recorded position.
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