OFX Has a $1.00 Offer on the Table, but the Market Doubts It Will Close

A strategic review delivered an all-cash bid from UK-based Equals Group, yet financing delays and weaker trading have left fund managers weighing the value of OFX's licences and new platform against the risk the deal falls away.

30 Sep 2026 · 3 min read

A takeover that has not yet closed

The story of OFX in 2026 is a strategic review that delivered a takeover offer, followed by a long wait to see if it completes. In July, UK-based Equals Group agreed an all-cash proposal at $1.00 per share, which Forager Funds said was a 108 per cent premium to the price before the deal was announced. By late September, Equals' debt financing was taking longer than expected, exclusivity had been extended to 30 October and OFX had downgraded its outlook. Forager summed up the gap between the parties and the market: the boards still expect it to happen, “but the market is telling you otherwise at the moment.”

Ryder Capital, a substantial holder, said Equals has substantively completed its confirmatory due diligence while it finalises debt funding, and that the share price at quarter end reflected the market's uncertainty around completion.

Why buyers are still interested

Managers who hold OFX argue the underlying assets are worth more than the market credits. Forager said in September it continues to believe that OFX's client base, platform and global licences represent an attractive target for Equals and other would-be acquirers, and topped up its holding. Tamim Funds Management noted Equals is owned by a consortium of private equity groups and is largely Europe-centric, so OFX would add APAC and North American diversification. “We view the transaction as highly likely to proceed,” Tamim said, though it took some profit above 80 cents.

We view the transaction as highly likely to proceed.

— Tamim Funds Management, Monthly Report, July 2026

The price on the table is modest relative to the scale of the business. Selector Funds Management said the offer represents a $247 million equity value and $233 million enterprise value, or 9.2 times EV to EBITDA and 0.8 times sales.

The trading problem

The bear case is in the operating numbers. Forager said in May that net operating income fell 9 per cent over the year, leaving the business roughly breakeven, and in its annual report noted OFX has lost market share while working through a major technology transition. Selector reported first quarter FY27 net operating income down 20 per cent, with corporate revenue down 22 per cent and corporate active clients down 6.6 per cent. Renaissance Asset Management said OFX no longer expects to grow net operating income or corporate active clients in FY27, citing more challenging trading conditions.

OFX 2.0 and the new platform

The strategic case rests on the new client platform. Selector said migration of existing corporate clients onto it is complete across all major markets, with non-FX revenue rising to $0.8 million and interest from client wallet balances up 19 per cent to $2.4 million in the quarter. Ryder said earlier in the year that products such as cards should drive non-FX revenue growth and that wallet balances should support interest income. Forager framed the stakes back in January: if the platform did not succeed, the business could be very valuable in the hands of a larger, scaled FX player. In June, it put it more bluntly: “If public markets won't recognise the value on offer, another owner may.”

If public markets won't recognise the value on offer, another owner may.

— Forager Funds, Annual Report, June 2026

What managers are watching next

Everything now hinges on Equals securing debt financing and moving to a binding scheme before exclusivity expires on 30 October. Selector noted the scheme was expected to take 9 to 12 months once agreed, during which OFX aims to establish a valuation reflecting its new platform. If the deal falters, managers will be watching whether other would-be acquirers emerge, as Forager suggests, or whether OFX must prove its turnaround on its own amid weakening trading.