Select Harvests' Almond Growth Story Trades at a Clear Valuation Discount

Strong profit growth, a reinstated dividend and a tightening global almond market haven't yet closed the gap to Select Harvests' broader market valuation multiple.

31 Aug 2026 · 3 min read

Select Harvests, Australia's largest vertically integrated almond grower, delivered a genuinely strong first-half result with underlying profit up 33 percent and a reinstated dividend, and fund managers increasingly argue the stock trades at a clear valuation disconnect given its low production costs, growing processing capacity and Asian market proximity relative to international competitors.

A vertically integrated grower with a clear cost advantage

Collins St Asset Management described Select Harvests, a Victoria-based company that grows, processes, packages and sells almonds and their derivatives and by-products, supplying supermarkets, health food stores, food manufacturers and retailers domestically and internationally, saying it had increased its investment in the company in recent months. The fund later named Select Harvests its preferred exposure to almonds, benefiting from lower production costs than many international competitors, proximity to Asian markets and growing processing capacity, also pointing to the reinstated dividend, ongoing buyback program and improving profitability, with the almond thesis resting on the same four-factor framework the fund uses for other commodity picks.

The firm's preferred exposure to almonds is Select Harvests, which benefits from lower production costs than many international competitors, proximity to Asian markets and growing processing capacity.

— Collins St Asset Management, Article, June 2026

A genuine profit inflection, backed by capital returns

Tamim Funds Management said Select Harvests, a vertically integrated almond grower, processor and seller, delivered first-half FY26 underlying net profit up 33 percent to A$29.1 million, on a forecast 2026 crop of 29,500 tonnes, 46 percent contracted at an indicative price of $10.21 a kilogram, with net debt at A$183 million expected to reduce in the second half given earnings and cash flow are weighted toward that period, as the board reinstated a 3.5 cent interim dividend and announced an on-market buyback. Seneca Financial Solutions noted the kind of returns on offer in the sector, citing Rivco's execution of a long-term lease with Select Harvests at a 5 percent rental yield in April.

H1 FY26 underlying NPAT rose 33% to A$29.1m on a forecast 2026 crop of 29,500t, 46% contracted at an indicative price $10.21/kg. The board reinstated a 3.5c interim dividend and announced an on-market buyback.

— Tamim Funds Management, Monthly Report, May 2026

A clear valuation disconnect

Collins St Asset Management said Select Harvests had reduced debt, initiated a buyback and improved its earnings outlook, yet trades on approximately 9 times FY27 forecast earnings, against a broader market multiple of around 17 times, representing a clear valuation disconnect.

Select Harvest has reduced debt, initiated a buyback, and improved its earnings outlook, yet trades on approximately 9x FY27 forecast earnings. Against a broader market multiple of around 17x, this represents a clear valuation disconnect.

— Collins St Asset Management, Quarterly Report, June 2026

A tightening supply-demand setup drives further gains

Collins St Asset Management said Select Harvests, a top-five holding, rose around 12 percent despite not yet reporting, on record Chinese almond demand, rising underlying almond prices, and a roughly 1 percent cut to the expected California crop, read as a tightening supply and demand setup for global almond prices.

What fund managers say they are watching next is delivery of the second-half weighted earnings and cash flow with continued debt reduction, further dividend and buyback capital returns, whether the valuation disconnect against the broader market closes, and how the tightening global almond supply and demand setup continues supporting prices.