St Barbara's Simberi stake sale unlocks a re-rating fund managers say has further to run

Paragon Funds details a risked sum-of-the-parts valuation of $2.75 billion against a $900 million market cap

31 Mar 2026 · 5 min read

St Barbara has re-rated sharply over the past year as it sold down stakes in its flagship Simberi gold project to Chinese and Papua New Guinean buyers, funding development of a sulphide expansion that one fund manager describes as worth several times the company's current market capitalisation.

Paragon Funds said in a Monthly Report in January 2026 that St Barbara has continued its impressive re-rating, now trading on a fully diluted market cap of around $900 million, roughly three times the fund's average cost base. The manager said the company recently sold 40% of its 5-million-ounce Simberi Gold Project to Chinese miner Lingbao Gold for $370 million in cash, and a further 20% to Kumul, the Papua New Guinea government's investment vehicle, for $100 million.

Paragon said the transaction significantly de-risks development of the Simberi sulphide expansion, with St Barbara now fully funded for its share of capex and project execution, and noted a key condition precedent, the extension of Simberi's mining lease to the end of 2038, was granted in January, clearing the path for financial close by the end of the first quarter of 2026.

On a risked sum-of-the-parts basis, St Barbara's valuation equates to $2.75b, a substantial value opportunity relative to its current $900m market-cap.

— Paragon Funds, Monthly Report, January 2026

The sum-of-the-parts case

Paragon laid out the valuation math in detail: at spot gold prices, Simberi carries a $4 billion net present value, implying $1.6 billion for St Barbara's remaining 40% stake, or $800 million once risked at a 0.5 times price-to-NPV multiple. The 100%-owned Atlantic Gold Project in Canada carries a $2.5 billion net present value, or $1.25 billion risked, and the manager said St Barbara is separately set to generate around $200 million of free cash flow during calendar 2027 from processing its Canadian stockpiles.

The manager pointed to further upside optionality too, noting that given Lingbao's scale, a $5.5 billion market capitalisation, and its growth ambitions, Paragon sees a strong likelihood of a future bid for the remaining 40% stake in Simberi at a material premium, and expects either further M&A activity or a material market re-rating of the Atlantic Gold asset as permitting momentum improves in Canada, drawing a comparison to neighbouring NexGold, which carries a market cap of around $500 million despite what Paragon considers an inferior asset.

How the thesis has evolved since the tax claim scare

The re-rating followed a period of real stress for the stock. Paragon Funds said in a Monthly Report in September 2025 that St Barbara's investment case was last discussed in August 2024, and that the stock had fallen 34% after receiving a baseless roughly $200 million tax claim on Simberi operations in December 2024. Despite the short-term setback, the manager said management continued executing their plan, and with the stock offering deep value and near-term catalysts, the weakness was used to double the fund's position.

At the time, Paragon said St Barbara enjoyed a strong re-rate in September, rising 53% to a market cap of around $650 million, and that the fund's primary interest has always been in the Simberi asset, where oxide production for FY26 was expected to be around 60,000 ounces, generating sufficient free cash flow to cover all expenditure before growth capex. The manager described the mineable 5-million-ounce sulphide resource with strong exploration upside as the real prize, an asset it expected to ultimately be pursued by a major gold producer, and noted St Barbara had already confirmed unsolicited approaches for Simberi and engaged Macquarie to run a sale process.

Given St Barbara's carry-forward tax losses, a Simberi asset sale would be largely tax-free. St Barbara's remaining assets include ~$100m in cash and investments, plus its Atlantic assets in Canada.

— Paragon Funds, Monthly Report, September 2025

What managers are watching next

By March 2026, Paragon said it had been selectively adding to its highest-conviction positions, including St Barbara, which it described as offering outstanding value and asymmetric risk-reward, alongside other holdings trading at metrics last seen at COVID lows and nearing GFC lows. With the PNG government now directly aligned as a Simberi partner, financial close on the sulphide expansion progressing, and the tax claim risk considered likely to prove immaterial given that alignment, the manager's stated watch-items are the outcome of the tax dispute and whether the Simberi sulphide project or the Atlantic Gold project attracts the further corporate interest Paragon expects.