Stanmore Resources' Discipline Pays Off as the Coal Cycle Turns

Fund managers say consistent execution through the downturn positioned Stanmore to benefit fully as steelmaking coal prices recovered

30 Jun 2026 · 4 min read

Steelmaking coal miner Stanmore Resources held firm on production and costs through a prolonged coal price downturn, and fund managers say that discipline is now paying off as prices recover and takeover speculation swirls around a nearby coal asset.

Consistent execution through a coal price downturn

PM Capital's December 2025 update described Stanmore as resilient despite low commodity prices that had forced peers, including several industry giants, to idle underperforming assets, defer capital expenditure, or high-grade their mines by cherry-picking the best reserves. Stanmore, by contrast, maintained consistent mine plans and capital expenditure, positioning it to benefit fully from any improvement in prices. Blackwattle Investment Partners echoed the assessment in January 2026, describing Stanmore's reputation for reliable operating metrics under a high-quality management team, even as metallurgical coal prices sat at the low end of historic ranges with little new supply coming online.

Stanmore has maintained consistent mine plans and capital expenditure programs and is therefore well positioned to benefit from any improvement in commodity prices.

— PM Capital, Quarterly Report, December 2025

A turning cycle brings dividends back

PM Capital's January 2026 update showed shares up 30 per cent that month as the cycle began to turn and benchmark coal prices moved higher, positioning Stanmore to generate substantial free cash flow at spot prices and resume fully franked dividends. That promise was delivered in February, when PM Capital's March quarterly update confirmed Stanmore had declared a dividend of around 5 per cent, or $0.125 per share, well ahead of market expectations, with shares up 23 per cent for the March quarter.

A Middle East conflict adds an indirect tailwind

PM Capital's March 2026 monthly update noted disruption to Middle East LNG supplies into Asia had supported thermal coal markets and, indirectly, steelmaking coal markets, since some steelmaking coal grades can be diverted to thermal use. Seneca Financial Solutions framed Stanmore, alongside New Hope, as a coal opportunity where pessimism may have gone too far, combining low-cycle pricing with cheap equity valuations, and by May 2026 highlighted that Stanmore traded at a big discount to peers like Whitehaven despite being a well-managed, low-cost coking coal miner.

Takeover speculation creates a capital raising overhang, then resolves

PM Capital's April 2026 update flagged a new source of volatility: media speculation that Stanmore was among the bidders for Anglo American's steelmaking coal assets in the same Bowen Basin, a deal that could have required a dilutive capital raising if successful. Seneca Financial Solutions confirmed shares fell on the same rumours despite strong underlying operational performance. That overhang lifted in May 2026, when PM Capital reported shares rising 19 per cent after confirmation the Anglo American assets would be sold to an alternate bidder, a decision PM Capital said was the right one for Stanmore given the strength and consistency of its existing mines.

Stanmore Resources increased 19% after confirmation that Anglo American's Queensland steelmaking coal assets would be sold to an alternate bidder, removing a potential overhang on Stanmore shares from a potential capital raise. We believe management made the right decision to pass on the opportunity, given the strength and consistency of Stanmore's own mines.

— PM Capital, Monthly Report, May 2026