Tuas's Spectrum Scandal: A Collapsed Deal and a Fund Manager Divide

A regulatory suspension in Singapore wiped out most of Tuas's value in a day, leaving fund managers split on whether the market overreacted.

30 Sep 2026 · 3 min read

Tuas fell as much as 65 to 70 percent in a single month after Singapore's telecommunications regulator suspended its review of the company's proposed S$1.43 billion acquisition of rival M1, citing allegations that its Simba mobile network had used radio frequency spectrum it was not authorised to use. The deal collapsed as a result, and fund managers have spent the months since debating whether the market's brutal reaction fairly prices a worst-case regulatory outcome or has overreacted to an allegation that remains largely unproven.

A shock regulatory suspension, then a lapsed deal

QVG Capital said Singapore's Infocomm Media Development Authority put approval of the M1 acquisition on hold after concluding Tuas may have used radio frequency bands it was not authorised to use, a potential breach of the Telecommunications Act and its own licence conditions. Tamim Funds Management said the update was thin on detail, arrived just two days before the M1 agreement was due to expire, and took the market entirely by surprise. Paradice Investment Management, Smallco Investment Manager and Ausbil Investment Management all confirmed that once approval conditions could not be satisfied by the extended deadline, the S$1.43 billion transaction with M1 lapsed, with vendor Keppel allowing the agreement to expire. Pengana Capital Group said the limited information provided left no way to measure the true impact, and it sold its relatively small position as a result.

It is rare to see an ASX200 company with TUA's pedigree tank -70% in a day.

— Tamim Funds Management, Monthly Report, May 2026

How bad could the breach actually be?

Blackwattle Investment Partners argued the market had priced the stock close to a worst-case outcome, while its own view is that Tuas's operational licence likely remains intact, with any penalty payable as a fine from the company's cash balance, and said it retains conviction in the underlying business. Ausbil Investment Management took a similarly measured position, saying any confirmed governance breach would be serious but that there is not yet enough information to gauge its severity, and that the share price already appears to reflect a near worst-case scenario including the possibility of licence cancellation.

It is likely that TUA's operational licence remains intact with a fine that can be paid by its cash balance, and we retain conviction in the underlying business.

— Blackwattle Investment Partners, Monthly Report, May 2026

Some funds walked away, others saw an opportunity

Lennox Capital Partners, which held neither Tuas nor unrelated laggard Tabcorp, said both outcomes reinforced its focus on quality businesses with sound governance and predictable earnings. Smallco Investment Manager noted the scale of the damage to its portfolio, describing Tuas, backed by founder David Teoh of former TPG fame, as by far its largest quarterly detractor. Spheria Asset Management took the opposite approach, saying it had kept Tuas on a watchlist through what it called an unimaginable share price retracement before initiating a position on a valuation it considers attractive relative to the downside risk. Paradice Investment Management, while acknowledging the setback, noted Simba remains a profitable, fast-growing business regardless of the regulatory cloud hanging over it.

What fund managers say they are watching next is the outcome of the IMDA's investigation into the alleged unauthorised spectrum use, whether any penalty is limited to a fine as Blackwattle expects or extends to more serious licence consequences, whether Simba's underlying mobile business keeps growing through the uncertainty, and whether Tuas revisits M&A ambitions once the regulatory cloud eventually clears.