Web Travel Group falls 30% on a Spanish tax audit echoing CTD fears
A strong first-half result and reaffirmed 2030 growth targets briefly built genuine momentum behind Web Travel Group, before news of a Spanish tax audit, and then agentic AI disruption fears, tested fund manager conviction in quick succession.
31 Mar 2026 · 6 min read
In short
Web Travel Group delivered 1H FY26 total transaction value up 22% and revenue up 20% to A$204.6 million, with Tamim Funds Management flagging the April 2026 convertible note redemption as the key catalyst for a further re-rate.
Web Travel Group shares fell 30% after the Spanish Tax Agency commenced an audit of its Spanish subsidiary, as investors drew comparisons to issues facing industry peer Corporate Travel Management, before recovering 19% once management reaffirmed FY26 guidance.
Web Travel Group is targeting A$10 billion in total transaction value by FY30 and around 50% EBITDA margins by FY27, with Wilson Asset Management noting a strong $238 million net cash position supporting further capital management.
Web Travel Group Ltd (ASX: WEB) spent late 2025 building genuine fund manager momentum behind a strong operating result, before a Spanish tax audit and then broader AI disruption fears tested that conviction within the space of a few months. Tamim Funds Management detailed the strength of the first-half FY26 result: total transaction value up 22%, revenue up 20% to A$204.6 million, EBITDA up 17% to A$94 million with a take rate around 6.5%, and bookings rising 18% to A$5.7 billion, with growth broad-based across regions led by a standout 36% increase in the Americas.
We see the upcoming convertible note redemption in April 2026 as the key catalyst to re-rate the stock further.
Tamim Funds Management, Monthly Report, November 2025
Guidance extends and confidence builds
Wilson Asset Management reported the first-half result beat consensus on both EBITDA margin, at 4.5% ahead of expectations, and TTV margin at 6.45%, beating guidance of 6.2-6.4%, supported by a strong $238 million net cash position and $699 million in liquidity that followed the completion of a $150 million buyback in the second half of FY2025. The company reaffirmed FY2027 targets of at least a 6.5% TTV margin and around a 50% EBITDA margin, alongside its longer-term A$10 billion FY2030 TTV target. Tyndall Asset Management added that the market had lacked confidence in the company heading into the result, meaning the beat and extended guidance materially improved sentiment around the high-growth outlook.
A Spanish tax audit triggers a 30% fall
That improving sentiment reversed sharply in February 2026. Wilson Asset Management reported the Spanish Tax Agency commenced an audit of Web Travel Group's Spanish subsidiary, covering direct taxes for April 2021 to March 2024 and indirect taxes for January 2022 to December 2025, with a material share price drop following as investors compared the news to issues currently faced by industry peer Corporate Travel Management. Ellerston Capital detailed the scale of the reaction, noting the stock fell 30% on the news, and that a subsequent investor call did not satisfactorily address the audit issue beyond noting the company had been audited previously and the disclosure was prompted by Spanish press reporting.
WEB didn't start the month well, following left of field news of the Spanish audit which saw its stock price fall 30%... The shares recovered by 19% post the analyst call, where WEB also reiterated FY26 guidance of $147-155m EBITDA, with a take rate of at least 6.5%.
Ellerston Capital, Monthly Report, February 2026
AI disruption fears compound the volatility
Just as the audit-driven fall began to recover, a fresh headwind emerged. Ellerston Capital noted the stock finished February on its lows, this time impacted by new agentic AI tools being released that affected many software companies across various sectors, including travel booking services like Web Travel Group, whose listed peers also suffered. Prime Value Asset Management added a further layer of context in March 2026, noting the broader travel industry had been sold off due to the Iran conflict, but argued geopolitical disruptions to travel historically have a relatively small impact on short-term profits given travellers' propensity to redirect to unaffected destinations, and an insignificant impact on the long-term valuation of travel businesses.
What managers are watching next
With Oracle Advisory Group among the fund managers continuing to hold the stock through the volatility, the catalysts fund managers are tracking most closely are the resolution or further disclosure around the Spanish tax audit, the April 2026 convertible note redemption that Tamim Funds Management flagged as a key re-rating catalyst, and whether Web Travel Group's underlying operating momentum, still targeting A$10 billion in TTV by FY30, reasserts itself once the audit and AI-disruption-driven noise clears.
Questions
Why did Web Travel Group shares fall 30% in February 2026?
Web Travel Group shares fell 30% after the Spanish Tax Agency commenced an audit of the company's Spanish subsidiary, with investors drawing comparisons to issues facing industry peer Corporate Travel Management, before the stock recovered 19% once management reaffirmed FY26 guidance.
What is Web Travel Group's long-term growth target?
Web Travel Group is targeting A$10 billion in total transaction value by FY30, alongside FY2027 targets of at least a 6.5% TTV margin and around a 50% EBITDA margin, which Wilson Asset Management said appeared achievable given the strength of its first-half FY26 result.
What is the key catalyst fund managers are watching for Web Travel Group?
Tamim Funds Management identifies the April 2026 convertible note redemption as the key catalyst to further re-rate the stock, alongside continued momentum in bookings and revenue growth across its major regional markets.
15 managers, 30 comments, with each manager's latest recorded position.
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