WiseTech Global's Sell-Off Splits Fund Managers Between Structural Risk and Deep Value

Governance concerns and a CargoWise customer scare have some fund managers selling and others calling it one of the ASX's cheapest quality compounders.

22 Sep 2026 · 6 min read

WiseTech Global has spent 2026 as one of the ASX's most contested stocks, falling from the low $40s in April to the low $30s by July as governance concerns around founder and executive chair Richard White collided with a genuine scare over customer losses in its core CargoWise logistics software. Fund managers are split almost down the middle, between those calling it a structurally impaired business and those calling the sell-off a buying opportunity in one of the country's highest-quality technology franchises.

A wall of worry, and a shrinking group of true believers

The immediate trigger in June was news that a large freight forwarder would migrate off the CargoWise platform, on top of governance concerns that had already dogged the stock for around 18 months. Market Partners argued the market was reading the customer loss too simply, pointing out WiseTech was leaning into AI-driven cost cuts and product development efficiency, while First Sentier Investors stayed bullish on the back of the e2open acquisition and forecast earnings growth of 50 percent the following year. Datt Capital called WiseTech one of the highest-quality businesses on the ASX, citing EBITDA margins above 40 percent and a management team that reinvests capital at high incremental returns.

Conviction proved fragile. Ten Cap disclosed a long position in WiseTech in June, only for portfolio manager Jun Bei Liu to say the fund had since exited, describing the stock as almost uninvestable given the number of open questions across the business. Paradice Investment Management took the opposite path, adding to its position as the stock fell 13 percent on governance concerns and softer guidance, judging the underlying logistics software franchise still high quality at a more attractive valuation. Others cut and ran: Smallco Investment Manager significantly reduced its holding on concerns about revenue momentum as the new commercial pricing model rolled out, and DS Capital exited at a loss on worries that cheaper new entrants could disrupt the business. Meanwhile Australian Eagle Asset Management's short position, held for about a year on concerns over client retention, was among the biggest contributors to its hedge fund's performance in May.

The bears make a structural case, not just a sentiment call

By July, the sell case had hardened into something more specific than governance headlines. Atlas Funds Management rated the stock a sell, arguing the core business model questions were unlikely to be resolved within six to nine months even with a board refresh. Vertium Asset Management, also a seller, pointed to two structural pressure points: e2open, now around a third of group profit, operating in a US market where competitors are taking share, and CargoWise, the other major profit pool, already seeing one large customer pull back its IT spend, a decision Vertium worried other well-resourced logistics players could copy using AI-assisted, in-house alternatives.

There's two structural issues happening with WiseTech that could put pressure on its earnings for the foreseeable future.

— Vertium Asset Management, Article, July 2026

Katana Asset Management took a more balanced view of the same facts, describing WiseTech as beaten up but interesting on valuation, with a PEG ratio below one and governance issues slowly being addressed, while flagging it as a high risk, high reward position sized accordingly.

August results deepen the debate over earnings quality

WiseTech's August result gave both camps more to work with. Pendal Group's newsletter noted revenue missed by 0.7 percent while EBITDA beat by 2.9 percent, and that FY27 guidance sits 2.8 percent below consensus on revenue but 1.3 percent ahead on EBITDA, weighted heavily to the second half. That guidance again leans on an organic reacceleration in CargoWise built around a new product, VerifyWise, that is not yet fully built out, an inflection Pendal noted had also been promised, and missed, in both FY25 and FY26.

We see a risk that the product-led growth strategy does not deliver the organic growth expected, requiring greater spending on sales and marketing which could put pressure on margins.

— Pendal Group, Newsletter, August 2026

Seneca Financial Solutions raised a separate concern about earnings quality, noting WiseTech has redefined its underlying-earnings metric to exclude restructuring and divestment costs despite being a serial acquirer of more than fifteen businesses since 2013, and cautioned investors to be wary of companies that change earnings definitions from year to year. Solaris Investment Management said the stock detracted from its performance over the period as the market's enthusiasm for the former growth story cooled against weaker headline earnings.

The bulls are doubling down on quality and cheap valuation

Datt Capital has emerged as the most consistent bull through the volatility. In August it rated the stock a buy, pointing to resilient EBIT margins of around 46 percent, cost synergies from the e2open acquisition delivered roughly a year ahead of guidance at an annualised $115 million, and customer attrition still below 1 percent through the new pricing model transition. Datt viewed the post-result share price fall as an overreaction to typically conservative guidance, argued founder Richard White's influence has diminished following new board appointments, and saw limited fallout from a regulatory investigation given Australia represents only around 10 percent of group revenue. The fund also noted the stock was trading near its cheapest-ever forward multiple against a historical range of 30 to 40 times earnings.

By September, Datt was leaning further into the bull case, arguing WiseTech remains one of the ASX's highest-quality technology companies despite its governance troubles, pointing to a materially refreshed board and management team, synergy extraction from e2open that has outperformed the company's own guidance, and a genuinely exciting product roadmap centred on customer identity verification tools that could open the door to a supply chain finance business in a multitrillion-dollar global market. Datt said WiseTech trades at around half the multiple of its Nasdaq-listed peers and would not be surprised to see a Nasdaq dual listing in the near term.

WiseTech's product portfolio is genuinely exciting, with customer identity verification products providing the foundational element of the company's move into offering its own supply chain finance solutions.

— Datt Capital, Article, September 2026

The dividing line among fund managers now runs less through governance, which several note is being actively addressed through board changes, and more through whether WiseTech's new pricing model and VerifyWise product can finally deliver the CargoWise reacceleration management has promised in three consecutive years. Bulls like Datt Capital and Paradice see a high-quality compounder trading cheaply enough to absorb the uncertainty. Bears like Atlas and Vertium see structural pressure in both major profit pools that a board refresh alone cannot fix. What happens through the second half of FY27, when that reacceleration is now guided to land, looks likely to settle the argument.