CSL's Rebound: Why Fund Managers Now Disagree on How Much Further It Can Run

After a brutal FY26, CSL's turnaround has fund managers arguing over how much of the recovery is already priced in.

12 Oct 2026 · 5 min read

CSL has climbed more than 90 percent from the low it touched earlier in 2026, and the fund managers who spent the past year picking over the damage from its Vifor acquisition are now arguing about something different: whether the rebound has run too far, too fast. A chief executive who retired the day before results were released, a large impairment charge and a string of downgrades gave way in August to a result the market judged good enough. Since then the stock has moved from the low $120s past $170, and the debate among the managers who follow it has shifted from how bad things could get to how much of the recovery is left to capture.

A rough year set a low bar

The scale of CSL's decline through FY26 is what made the rebound so sharp. Atlas Funds Management, naming CSL among its picks for a recovery over the next twelve months in an August article, pointed to a tough year in which the company overestimated demand for key products, revealed cost blowouts and endured a slow recovery in plasma collection, all culminating in the chief executive's retirement the day before results were released. The fund noted CSL's share price was sitting at roughly the same level as in 2016, despite the business having added close to US$1.9 billion in net profit over the intervening decade, a 150 percent increase. Atlas said the key near-term catalysts for CSL would be “the announcement of a new CEO, a recovery in plasma margins, and achieving profit guidance in 2027, thus improving management credibility.”

The key near-term catalysts for CSL will be the announcement of a new CEO, a recovery in plasma margins, and achieving profit guidance in 2027, thus improving management credibility.

— Atlas Funds Management, Article, July 2026

The result that changed the debate

CSL's FY26 result, released in August, came in broadly in line with an already heavily downgraded consensus. Pendal Group noted in its August newsletter that revenue fell 1 percent and net profit fell 2 percent for the year, but that the immunoglobulin and specialty portfolios grew in the second half and the Seqirus vaccines business held up in a tough market. Guidance points to 5 percent net profit growth in FY27, held back by the Vifor iron deficiency and nephrology unit, with the core business otherwise expected to grow at a double-digit pace. Pendal said consensus estimates were revised up 3 to 4 percent following the update, and pointed to a new $1.1 billion buyback as a sign of a solid balance sheet, while flagging that the upcoming chair and chief executive transition would need careful handling.

Ten Cap framed the Behring plasma division, the source of most of the year's disappointment, as the standout of the result, with sales coming in about 2 percent ahead of the prior year and management pointing to early signs of improving trends. The fund said CSL had moved from around 13 times FY27 earnings to about 15 times by the time of the result, still cheap relative to other large defensive companies, but flagged one risk to watch: an incoming chief executive who could reset guidance lower if the business begins losing market share again.

First Samuel offered a similar read on why a headline-poor result still sent the stock up more than 17 percent on the day. The fund noted CSL's large impairments, mostly tied to Vifor, confirmed what the market had already concluded, that the acquisition had destroyed shareholder value. What mattered, in First Samuel's view, was that expectations had already been cut so far that the result simply needed to show the deterioration was ending, and it did.

Pendal's August newsletter also pointed to a supportive competitive backdrop, noting that quarterly updates from CSL's two largest plasma rivals, Grifols and Takeda, painted a picture of a growing, rational market. Grifols was taking only a small amount of share in a market growing at a high single-digit pace, while Takeda's leading hereditary angioedema treatment was barely holding flat, which Pendal linked to share gains for CSL's newer product, Garadacimab, known as Andembry.

Bulls and profit-takers now disagree on the next leg

Not every manager thinks the re-rating is done. WaveStone Capital, rating CSL a buy in September, said it “sees a new management team taking out costs and making sound commercial calls,” and while the stock has re-rated to roughly 19 times earnings, the fund expects high single-digit earnings growth and room for a further re-rating from here.

Sees a new management team taking out costs and making sound commercial calls; the stock has re-rated to roughly 19x earnings, but WaveStone expects high single-digit EPS growth and room for a further re-rating.

— WaveStone Capital, Article, September 2026

Others are taking the opposite side of that trade. PM Capital said CSL rallied 39 percent after results and now trades near 20 times earnings, with the Behring division alone implying a multiple closer to 25 times, a level the fund views as at or beyond fair value, and it has effectively exited its exposure through written call options. Investors Mutual Limited made a similar move, noting CSL was among its strongest performers, up 39.4 percent and now more than 90 percent above its lows, and confirming it has been reducing its CSL position after the sharp share price rise, redeploying capital into Seven Group Holdings.

For now, CSL's investment case has shifted from a story about how deep the damage from Vifor would run to one about how much credit the market should give a business still mid-transition. The appointment of a permanent chief executive and chair, delivery on the 5 percent FY27 profit growth guidance, and evidence that Behring's margin recovery is durable rather than a single good quarter are the things fund managers say they are watching next, alongside how CSL's newer products continue to perform against Grifols and Takeda in the plasma and hereditary angioedema markets.