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Fund Manager Summary on CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL)
In February 2026, ClearBridge Investments commented that CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL) had become an opportunistic buy after a 2025 sell‑off triggered by anti‑vaccine sentiment and a disruptive restructure, and that its US plasma franchise and long barriers to new capacity made the shares attractive enough to initiate a position for the first time in 15 years. Fund managers’ commentary converges on the view that CSL’s problems are largely company‑specific and that the business still has structural strengths, but they diverge on timing and conviction: Atlas views CSL as a rebound candidate in 2026, expecting margin expansion from plasma collection efficiencies, stronger cost controls and a potential late flu vaccine recovery after an unusually severe 2025 season that hospitalised 11 million Americans; Pengana sees core franchises intact with prospects for lower capex, stable revenue and expanding margins; Airlie has reduced exposure after two downgrades, citing persistent weakness in US flu vaccination, difficulty forecasting a plasma business that drives roughly 70% of earnings and albumin pricing pressure in China, and some managers point to management missteps including a surprise restructure, an 81% reported net profit decline and related governance disruption. The combined insight implies clear, actionable considerations: weigh current valuation against execution risk, monitor management’s delivery on R&D and cost controls (including the prior 15% workforce reduction), track plasma collection volumes, pricing dynamics (notably albumin in China) and US vaccination trends for vaccine demand recovery, and assess any further corporate actions or restructuring outcomes before increasing exposure.
Commentary From The Managers
There are 69 insights from 32 fund managers regarding their investment in CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL) available on Thesis Tracker.
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Commentary From The Managers
Pendal Group
16 Mar 2026
$140.66
Summary
- Pendal Group continues to hold CSL Ltd because the US$1.5 billion facility expansion signals management confidence in sustained demand growth for plasma therapies.
- CSL is expanding its Kankakee, Illinois facility, building on over US$3 billion invested in US operations since 2018.
- The expansion incorporates Horizon technology, designed to significantly increase plasma collection and therapy production capacity.
- Pendal sees the sustained capital investment as evidence of management conviction in CSL long-term earnings growth trajectory.
ClearBridge Investments
23 Feb 2026
$147.38
Summary
- ClearBridge Investments believes CSL is attractively priced after the 2025 sell‑off and initiated a position because the current share price factors in near‑term operational and governance issues while retaining exposure to its valuable US plasma franchise.
- First purchase in 15 years: began buying in November after anti‑vaccine sentiment in the US and a surprise restructuring announcement drove the stock sharply lower.
- Adverse timing and shock results: the position was started in November only to see shares plunge further when CSL reported an 81 per cent decline in net profits related to the restructure and the chaotic exit of CEO Paul McKenzie.
- Position significance: CSL is now the third‑largest holding in Birtles’ portfolio and has fallen a further 16 per cent since early December.
- Valuation stance: despite acknowledging current problems, ClearBridge views the stock as reasonably priced for the first time in a long time and sees value in the dislocation.
- Core investment thesis: bullish on the American plasma business because of a lack of major competitors and the long lead times required to build new collection and processing facilities, which underpin a durable competitive moat.
- Risk preference: prefer taking controversy within a clear competitive moat (US plasma) rather than paying premium multiples for businesses (eg, software) with more uncertain futures.
Airlie Funds Management
19 Jan 2026
$176.50
Summary
- Airlie Funds Management believes CSL remains attractively valued and reduced their position because of growing operational challenges and two back-to-back downgrades.
- Two consecutive downgrades have signalled deteriorating near-term outlook and prompted portfolio reassessment.
- Valuation appears compelling, but valuation alone does not offset the emerging execution and demand risks.
- Business-wide challenges are evident across multiple segments, increasing uncertainty about short-term performance.
- Most acutely in flu where US vaccination rates have shown no sign of bottoming, weighing on revenue visibility for that franchise.
- CSL is a blood plasma giant and represents one of the fund’s costlier investments, making its operational setbacks materially relevant to position sizing.
- Near-term focus is on monitoring vaccination trends and execution recovery before reconsidering any increase to exposure.
Airlie Funds Management
16 Jan 2026
$175.53
Summary
- Airlie Funds Management believes CSL remains a high-quality business, but reduced their position because confidence in forecasting the plasma business has fallen and the albumin outlook in China increases pricing risk.
- Plasma drives ~70% of earnings — the plasma business is the dominant earnings driver and the main source of recent volatility.
- We expected a positive outlook and meaningful cost-out opportunities, but the cost-out was needed to offset unexpected margin headwinds in plasma rather than to enhance margins.
- Plasma is very difficult to forecast — margin dynamics have been unpredictable, and our confidence in forecasting this business has declined materially.
- Much negative news appears priced in, which supports maintaining a position despite reduced conviction.
- Albumin in China is challenged — a weaker albumin outlook in China is likely to drive pricing pressure and weigh on margins.
- Positioning: still overweight but reduced the position to reflect lower forecast confidence and increased downside risk while retaining exposure to potential upside.
Atlas Funds Management
7 Jan 2026
$170.00
Summary
- Atlas Funds Management identifies CSL Ltd as a key recovery candidate for 2026.
- The firm emphasizes that CSL's challenges are primarily company-specific.
- Last year, CSL faced hardships due to a surprise corporate restructure and a 15% reduction in workforce.
- There was a notable decline in flu vaccine sales in the USA, coupled with negative sentiment towards the healthcare sector.
- Atlas expects margin expansion from improved efficiencies in plasma collection and better cost controls.
- The ongoing flu season is reportedly the worst in 25 years, with 11 million Americans hospitalized.
- This situation may lead to a late rebound in flu vaccine sales and enhanced acceptance in 2026.
Pengana Capital Group
31 Dec 2025
$172.65
Summary
- Pengana Capital Group believes the core franchises remain intact and continues to hold because lower capex, stable revenue and expanding margins should deliver better profitability and underlying cash flows despite recent strategic and management issues.
- Core business resilience: the underlying product franchises exhibit durable demand and competitive positions that support revenue stability while operational fixes are implemented.
- Cash flow upside from capex reduction: a shift to lower ongoing capital intensity should materially improve free cash flow generation versus prior expectations.
- Margin expansion potential: cost discipline, operational leverage and favourable product mix dynamics are expected to drive improving margins over time.
- Strategic and management issues acknowledged: recent execution and governance shortcomings have weighed on sentiment, but these do not, in Pengana’s view, invalidate the long‑term economics of the franchises.
- Execution is the key catalyst: visible actions on capital allocation, clearer strategic focus and delivery of operational improvements are the primary pathways to re‑rating.
- Risk awareness: continued execution risk, regulatory outcomes and demand volatility remain the main risks to the thesis, to be monitored as improvements materialise.
Airlie Funds Management
31 Dec 2025
$172.65
Summary
- Airlie Funds Management believes CSL remains attractively valued but has reduced their position because the company has disappointed with two back-to-back downgrades and faces acute weakness in its influenza franchise as US vaccination rates have shown no sign of bottoming.
- Downgrades: Recent guidance cuts signal near-term earnings pressure and reduced visibility on recovery timing.
- Valuation: Current multiple appears compelling versus history, supporting a cautious rebuilding thesis if operational trends stabilise.
- Business challenges: Issues are broad-based across the business, with the most material headwind in flu demand dynamics.
- Flu specifics: Subdued US vaccination uptake is a key risk that could keep revenue below prior expectations for multiple seasons.
- Portfolio action: Also reduced the overweight in Charter Hall after it re-rated from a PE of 10x to 25x as office sentiment improved, reflecting active rebalancing amid changing valuations.
Atlas Funds Management
8 Dec 2025
$185.50
Summary
- Atlas Funds Management continues to hold CSL Ltd due to recent developments.
- CSL has faced significant challenges, similar to those experienced by James Hardie.
- There have been a number of self-inflicted wounds impacting the company.
- Global healthcare stocks, including CSL, have been under pressure from Trump tariffs.
- CSL surprised the market with plans to spin off Seqirus and cut 15% of its workforce.
- This workforce reduction suggests that costs had become uncontrolled.
- Vaccine hesitancy in the U.S. has also affected CSL’s performance.
- CSL’s products are primarily non-discretionary, essential for life.
- There are ample opportunities for recovery anticipated by 2026.
- CSL is currently trading at 16 times earnings, which is a discount to the market.
- To improve, CSL likely needs to achieve around 7% growth.
- Expectations for CSL are currently very low, setting the stage for potential recovery.
Perennial Partners
30 Nov 2025
$183.64
Summary
- Perennial Partners continues to hold a positive outlook on CSL (+4.4%).
- CSL has encountered several challenges leading to a notable share price de-rating.
- Despite valid market concerns, CSL management is actively working to tackle these issues.
- The company is positioned to achieve double-digit earnings growth over the medium-term.
- Wisetech (+5.6%) is also highlighted as a positive investment.
Wilson Asset Management
30 Nov 2025
$183.64
Summary
- CSL is a global biotechnology company specializing in plasma therapies, vaccines, and treatments for rare diseases.
- Wilson Asset Management attended the Capital Markets Day in the US and met with CSL's management team.
- The team toured manufacturing facilities and plasma collection centres in Kankakee, Illinois, and Holly Springs, North Carolina.
- Encouraged by additional disclosures on demand drivers for immunoglobulin products.
- CSL's initiatives to grow market share were positively noted.
- Progress in reducing plasma collection and fractionation costs was highlighted.
- Insights gained have strengthened confidence in CSL’s earnings profile.
- Wilson Asset Management sees valuation support at the current share price.
Platypus Asset Management
24 Nov 2025
$182.95
Summary
- Platypus Asset Management notes CSL Ltd's evolution from a government entity to a leading global plasma therapeutic company since its privatisation in 1994.
- CSL's historical success has been attributed to a culture of operational excellence and strategic acquisitions.
- Recent operational missteps and a challenging acquisition have negatively impacted CSL’s long-term track record.
- CSL's disciplined approach to M&A and R&D investments has historically driven consistent earnings growth.
- Post-COVID-19, CSL faced challenges such as increased plasma collection costs and operational delays, affecting gross profit margins.
- The failed AEGIS-II trial resulted in a significant R&D write-down and a gap in the earnings growth pipeline.
- CSL's acquisition of Vifor Pharma did not meet expectations, further complicating its earnings trajectory.
- Recent performance has led to a series of earnings downgrades and a loss of investor confidence.
- CSL's stock has been derated, trading at multiples reminiscent of the GFC, indicating a need for improved execution and transparency.
- Investors are looking for clear evidence of CSL's return to its previous standards of discipline and operational excellence.
Wilson Asset Management
17 Nov 2025
$180.44
Summary
- Wilson Asset Management continues to hold its position in CSL Ltd.
- Deputy Portfolio Manager Anna Milne recently attended CSL's Capital Markets Days in the US.
- CSL is recognized as a global biotechnology company focused on plasma therapies, vaccines, and treatments for rare diseases.
- Meetings with the management team provided insights into demand drivers for immunoglobulin products.
- CSL's initiatives to grow market share were positively noted.
- Progress in reducing plasma collection and fractionation costs was encouraging.
- Overall, there is greater confidence in CSL's earnings profile.
- Current share price offers valuation support.
Pendal Group
3 Nov 2025
$176.99
Summary
- Pendal Group notes a downgrade in CSL Ltd's FY26 revenue and NPAT guidance at their AGM.
- Revenue growth expectations have been reduced from 4-5% to 2-4%.
- NPATA guidance has been adjusted from 7-10% constant currency to 4-7%.
- The forex tailwind has improved from $60M to $100M.
- Disappointment arises from the Seqirus business, particularly in US influenza vaccinations, tracking down 10-15%.
- This impact on revenue flows straight down the P&L due to the nature of influenza vaccination production.
- Negative outcomes reported by both Sanofi and GSK suggest a broader market issue.
- This marks the third or fourth consecutive down season in vaccination rates, 25%+ below peak levels.
- The upcoming flu season is projected to be a 15-year record for hospitalisations and mortality.
- The Chinese Government's changes to reimbursement for Albumin are prompting CSL to seek new channels and markets.
- Management sees the impact of this as secondary, affecting 1H more than 2H.
- Medium-term NPATA targets remain at double digits, though FY27 and FY28 are likely to see high-single-digit growth.
- The market had anticipated growth rates of 12-13%.
- CSL is not factoring in a recovery in the US flu vaccination market for the medium term.
- On a positive note, the plasma-based market remains strong, and the launch of Andembry is ahead of schedule.
- Cost savings have been identified to mitigate FY26 impacts, with the transformation program progressing well.
Prime Value Asset Management
31 Oct 2025
$178.50
Summary
- CSL underperformed following a weaker-than-expected company update at its 2025 AGM.
- CSL now expects 4-7% profit growth in FY26 due to lower demand for its flu vaccines in the US.
- The company has lowered its 'double-digit' growth expectations for FY27-28 to 'high single-digits'.
- Prime Value Asset Management reduced investments in CSL substantially during the June quarter this year.
- They will monitor the progress of CSL’s core plasma collection business for better growth prospects.
- CSL’s valuations have declined to very attractive levels compared to its history.
Clime Investment Management
31 Oct 2025
$178.50
Summary
- CSL detracted from performance in October, falling 10% after a trading update at the AGM.
- Management lowered revenue and profit growth expectations for FY26, impacting market confidence.
- The decision to cut FY26 guidance just two months after the August result has shaken confidence, including that of Clime Investment Management.
- Clime reduced its CSL holding in July to fund the purchase of another healthcare company, though they feel it wasn't enough.
- With the share price now ~40% below its level 12 months ago, the market is pricing current earnings as unsustainable.
- Clime disagrees with this view and therefore retains its position in CSL.
Pendal Group
31 Oct 2025
$178.50
Summary
- Pendal Group continues to hold due to CSL's recent downgrade of FY26 revenue and NPAT guidance driven by soft vaccine demand in the US.
- The changes in pricing structure for albumin in China have also impacted forecasts.
- Despite the disappointing news, the market's sharp reaction indicates skepticism towards management's outlook.
- Research from Pendal Group indicates that underlying demand for CSL's products remains robust, particularly in the plasma market.
- Management has implemented changes following disappointing earnings, including cost-cutting measures and adjustments to R&D.
- The resumption of the buyback program reflects improved capital discipline.
- CSL's stock is currently valued at a depressed level, suggesting significant upside potential if management can reassure the market.
ELM Responsible Investments
31 Oct 2025
$178.50
Summary
- CSL faced significant headwinds in October, with a notable 15% decline in share price due to earnings and revenue forecast downgrades.
- Plans to spin off CSL Seqirus, the vaccines division, have been postponed, originally intended for mid-2026.
- Reported unprecedented volatility in the US influenza vaccine market, with sharper-than-expected drops in vaccination rates.
- Revisions to Seqirus revenue projections for FY26, reflecting lower-than-anticipated US influenza vaccination rates.
- Despite challenges in the vaccines business, CSL's core plasma therapies unit, CSL Behring, remains solid.
- Concerns about governance and execution need addressing moving forward.
- CSL's strong positioning in plasma-derived therapies, extensive global collection network, and robust R&D pipeline suggest potential for long-term value creation once the vaccines division stabilizes.
Sterling Managed Investments
31 Oct 2025
$178.50
Summary
- CSL detracted from performance in October, falling 10% after a trading update at the AGM.
- Management lowered revenue and profit growth expectations for FY26.
- The decision to cut FY26 guidance shook market confidence, including that of Sterling Managed Investments.
- Sterling Managed Investments reduced their CSL holding in July to fund the purchase of another healthcare company.
- In hindsight, the reduction was not sufficient given the current share price drop.
- CSL's share price is now ~40% below its level 12 months ago, despite broadly unchanged earnings.
- The market seems to be pricing current earnings as unsustainable, a view Sterling Managed Investments disagrees with.
- Therefore, Sterling Managed Investments retains its position in CSL Ltd.
Sage Capital
31 Oct 2025
$178.50
Summary
- Sage Capital has built a long position in CSL (ASX: CSL) following recent share price weakness.
- There is significant underlying value in CSL's core immunoglobulin business.
- A surprise downgrade on US vaccination rates raises concerns about earnings visibility.
- Despite challenges, CSL remains compelling value due to potential earnings upside.
- Margins are expected to return to historical levels with cost reductions and efficiencies from Horizon 1 & 2 programs.
Perpetual Asset Management
31 Oct 2025
$178.50
Summary
- CSL detracted from portfolio performance in October with a stock decline of 9.9% following the Annual General Meeting.
- Management downgraded guidance, adjusting medium-term growth expectations from double-digit to high single-digit expansion.
- US influenza vaccination rates deteriorated beyond expectations, influenced by politicisation, a shift to retail pharmacy administration, and concentrated procurement power.
- Seqirus demerger indefinitely deferred pending improved market conditions, affecting future growth prospects.
- Operational setbacks and margin uncertainty have led to a reassessment of CSL's growth trajectory.
- The business now exhibits a materially weaker earnings profile compared to its historical double-digit growth performance.
- While the core plasma franchise remains exceptionally high quality, the market is reassessing CSL's valuation as an industrial business rather than a growth company.
- This shift in perception may lead to a lower valuation multiple than previously commanded.
Wilson Asset Management
30 Sept 2025
$198.20
Summary
- CSL is a global biotechnology company focused on plasma therapies, vaccines, and treatments for rare diseases.
- FY2025 results announced in August were well below expectations, impacting market perception.
- The market is concerned about lower long-term growth prospects for CSL's Behring franchise.
- There is speculation regarding the possible spin-out of the Seqirus division.
- The healthcare sector is under pressure, with a market preference for more cyclical exposures.
- Wilson Asset Management believes the current share price reflects the risks and opportunities facing CSL.
- Without new information, there is no conviction to increase holdings in CSL at this time.
Yarra Capital Management
30 Sept 2025
$198.20
Summary
- Yarra Capital Management continues to hold an underweight position in CSL Ltd due to recent underperformance.
- CSL announced a significant corporate restructure, including plans to spin off its Seqirus vaccine division.
- The company will close plasma centres and consolidate R&D operations as part of its strategy.
- These measures aim to streamline operations and generate long-term efficiencies.
- However, they highlight an increased competitive landscape and ongoing uncertainty regarding long-term earnings.
- Yarra Capital Management believes earnings growth from the core blood plasma division will face challenges.
- Challenges include elevated and persistent cost pressures and increased product competition.
- There is a noted shift in product growth away from higher margin specialty products.
- Longer-term product substitution risk adds to the uncertainty surrounding CSL's earnings trajectory.
Pendal Group
30 Sept 2025
$198.20
Summary
- Pendal Group notes that CSL has experienced a decline following a disappointing earnings report in August.
- Ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs and pricing in the US is impacting market perceptions.
- Despite challenges, CSL is well positioned due to its significant production presence in the US.
- Management is actively addressing market concerns about the structural outlook for the plasma market.
- A new licensing deal indicates a more cautious approach to R&D investment.
- Pendal Group believes the valuation is compelling for CSL, which is expected to achieve low double-digit compound annual growth rates in earnings over the next three years.
Sterling Managed Investments
30 Sept 2025
$198.20
Summary
- Sterling Managed Investments continues to hold CSL Ltd as a core position in their portfolios.
- CSL experienced selling pressure in September following a poorly received FY25 result.
- The company’s wealth-creation outlook has softened due to a slowdown in Behring, which contributes 70% of group earnings.
- There are headwinds in CSL’s influenza division attributed to lower vaccination rates.
- Despite challenges, CSL maintains a market leadership position in plasma therapies.
- CSL is strongly capitalised, allowing for investments in growth and capital management through share buybacks.
- CSL's weighting in Sterling’s portfolios is lower than historically.
- CSL is expected to update the market on earnings guidance for FY26 during their AGM in late October.
Airlie Funds Management
30 Sept 2025
$198.20
Summary
- Airlie Funds Management notes a significant decline in CSL's stock, falling 16% after FY25 results were released.
- Concerns have arisen regarding the medium-term growth rate of earnings for the Behring division, which is expected to be slower than anticipated.
- Despite modest earnings revisions, CSL's valuation has de-rated significantly.
- Management maintains that there is robust demand for CSL’s core plasma proteins, yet market skepticism persists.
- The company’s current competitive position is uncertain, leading to CSL being viewed unfavorably until financial results improve.
- CSL is currently trading at 16x FY27 P/E, which appears attractive for a company of its caliber.
- In light of these factors, Airlie Funds Management has decided to add to their position in CSL during this period.
Infinity Asset Management
30 Sept 2025
$198.20
Summary
- Infinity Asset Management has reduced their positions in CSL (CSL).
- FY25 results and FY26 outlook are impacted by key issues in Ig/plasma and Behring margins.
- Demand remains healthy, but near-term Ig growth is now projected at mid- to high-single digits, down from high-single digits.
- CSL is avoiding low-margin tenders, including a loss in the UK, while managing US Part D headwinds.
- Challenges include a tougher tender environment and a negative Ig product mix, with more PRIVIGEN versus higher-margin HIZENTRA.
- Product rollouts are slower than planned, and there are elevated labor costs associated with the RIKA rollout.
- Gross-margin recovery is expected to be bumpier and delayed, with management now only committing to year-on-year improvement.
- FX volatility and the closure of 22 US plasma collection centers (about 7% footprint) will not materially benefit FY26 earnings.
- Investor sentiment is likely to remain subdued in the near term.
- Despite sharp downgrades to FY26, FY27 consensus forecasts remain lofty, with potential risks of further downgrades to the ~14% NPAT growth.
- As a result, Infinity Asset Management has reduced their position by half.
- Regaining confidence will require material improvement in execution, delivery of the cost-out strategy, and clarity on the proposed demerger of Seqirus.
Flagship Investments
30 Sept 2025
$198.20
Summary
- Flagship Investments has recently added CSL Limited (CSL) back into the portfolio.
- CSL is recognized as a leading Australian biotechnology company.
- The company specializes in providing IG and specialty blood plasma products.
- These products are essential for the treatment and prevention of rare diseases.
- Flagship Investments views CSL as a key player in the multinational specialty pharmaceuticals market.
- The fund manager initiated a position in CSL due to its strong market position and growth potential.
Cooper Investors
30 Sept 2025
$198.20
Summary
- CSL sold off sharply after the FY25 result, indicating a material derating and loss of confidence in management's execution and strategy.
- CSL Behring margin recovery is delayed, with contributing factors including:
- Costs from new collection centre systems
- Slower plasma collection cost reduction
- Weaker uptake of new high-margin products
- Part D reforms in the USA
- Currency movements
Management maintains that gross margin will return to pre-COVID levels, with an estimated underlying margin expansion of ~1.5% after adjustments. - IG market growth shows underlying resilience, with an estimated growth rate closer to double digits in 2H25 when excluding certain impacts. Demand-supply balance remains intact, supporting potential double-digit EPS growth in the medium term.
- R&D reset aims for a tighter, more commercial approach to increase R&D spending efficacy, with meaningful potential upside if productivity improves.
- Seqirus demerger will simplify the organization, allowing greater focus and capital efficiency for each business segment.
- Despite recent underperformance, it appears overdone relative to fundamentals, although tariffs and pricing initiatives in the US remain risks.
- Cooper Investors believes many issues are transitory or self-inflicted, with identifiable fixes being pursued, making risk-adjusted value latency attractive for patient investors.
Maple-Brown Abbott
30 Sept 2025
$198.20
Summary
- Maple-Brown Abbott maintains an overweight holding in CSL.
- The stock experienced a significant decline of 17% following its full year results.
- Results were in line with expectations and only included a modest downgrade in earnings guidance.
- CSL is now trading at a lower multiple than the market average for the first time.
- The company retains a strong competitive position.
- Expectations for high single-digit earnings growth remain intact.
Selector Funds Management
30 Sept 2025
$198.20
Summary
- Selector Funds Management highlights CSL's strategic partnership with VarmX BV to develop a new treatment for blood coagulation.
- CSL's agreement includes an up-front payment of US$117m for an exclusive option to acquire VarmX.
- The partnership aims to address a critical unmet medical need for over 20m global patients on Factor Xa inhibitors.
- VarmX's asset, VMX-C001, has received FDA fast track designation, indicating its potential impact.
- CSL will fund the global Phase 3 trial and support late-stage product development and commercial activities.
- Further payments of up to US$388m are contingent on milestones and regulatory approvals, with a product launch anticipated in 2029.
- CSL announced a leadership change with Mr. Ken Lim appointed as Chief Financial Officer effective October 2025.
- The company maintains a strong market capitalisation of $97b.
Equity Trustees Asset Management
30 Sept 2025
$198.20
Summary
- Equity Trustees Asset Management notes that the stock sold off aggressively following the FY25 result.
- Despite this, CSL announced earnings in line with expectations.
- The company revealed a US$500m+ cost out program.
- Additionally, a US$500m per annum multi-year buyback program was introduced.
- The core Behrings division performed slightly weaker than expected.
- In contrast, the Vifor and Sequiris divisions exceeded expectations.
- The market raised concerns about the necessity of the cost out program to meet earnings guidance.
- There were also questions regarding CSL's future growth rates.
- CSL aims to return to pre-COVID margins, although the timeline for this has been extended.
Elston Asset Management
25 Sept 2025
$197.99
Summary
- Elston Asset Management notes that large-cap defensive healthcare leader CSL has been derated due to margin compression, R&D missteps, and competitive fears.
- There are clear cost-out and growth catalysts into FY26–27.
- The 2H slowdown in Behring/IG sales was attributed to a below market growth rate, with 3-4% lost due to lower-margin tenders CSL chose not to pursue.
- Questions were raised regarding IG supply demand dynamics and competitive dynamics.
- Gross margin pressures stem from post-COVID plasma cost inflation, donor fees, and slower-than-expected margin recovery.
- R&D credibility has been affected by the CSL112 failure, leading to questions about productivity and pipeline delivery.
- Macro overhangs include US Part D reform drag and tariff risk headlines.
- CSL's fundamentals remain attractive with a scale & oligopoly structure, where the top 3 global plasma players control ~85% of volumes.
- CSL is the lowest-cost operator with around ~30% market share.
- Margins are stabilising, with FY25 Behring EBITDA margin at 45.4% (+89 bps YoY).
- Cash generation is strong, with FY25 FCF at US$3.6bn (+29% YoY) and NPATA +14% CC.
- Valuation is at a FY1 P/E of ~20x, at the low end of CSL’s 10-year trading range despite a high-single-digit to low-teen EPS growth outlook.
- The balance sheet shows net debt/EBITDA at 1.5x, allowing room for shareholder returns, including a planned A$750m buyback from FY26.
- Turnaround catalysts include Behring gross margin recovery through a $500m cost savings program.
- Pipeline unlocks from Andembry (HAE), Garadacimab (HAE), and nephrology developments are anticipated.
- The Seqirus demerger planned for FY26 is expected to unlock value and simplify the structure.
- Capital management strategies, such as buybacks, signal confidence in cash flow and balance sheet strength.
- Key signals to watch include the IG growth trajectory and progress toward ~57% gross margin.
- Evidence of tender outcomes in a rational market is crucial for maintaining pricing discipline while keeping market share.
- Pipeline readouts and clarity on the Seqirus separation will be important indicators.
- Despite near-term noise, CSL’s cost leadership and rational market structure remain intact, with expected sustainable earnings growth of ~10%.
- The current valuation at ~19x FY1 P/E presents a solid entry point.
Blackwattle Investment Partners
31 Aug 2025
$210.27
Summary
- Blackwattle Investment Partners notes a delay in gross margin recovery expectations, impacting performance.
- The anticipated benefits from Rika Plasma technology and productivity enhancements have not materialized, disappointing investors.
- Results were affected by U.S. CMS drug price cuts and increased competition in the plasma sector.
- Despite these challenges, strong plasma demand and improving free cash flow are positive indicators.
- A significant valuation de-rating makes CSL increasingly attractive in the eyes of Blackwattle Investment Partners.
Ten Cap
31 Aug 2025
$210.27
Summary
- Ten Cap updates their investment thesis on CSL Ltd.
- Profit-taking was executed prior to results due to a ~15% outperformance in July.
- This action aligns with Ten Cap's disciplined approach to event risk.
- Emphasis on position sizing during a volatile reporting season.
- Ten Cap continues to monitor market conditions and adjust strategies accordingly.
SG Hiscock & Company
31 Aug 2025
$210.27
Summary
- SG Hiscock & Company notes that CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) was a major detractor in August, with shares dropping significantly following disappointing FY25 results.
- The stock fell -16.9% on the day of the results release, as management delayed the timeline for restoring CSL Behring’s gross margins to pre-COVID levels until FY29.
- FY25 results indicated revenue of US$15.6bn (+5% YoY at constant currency) and NPATA of US$3.2bn (+14% at constant currency), aligning with guidance but impacted by a lower effective tax rate.
- Behring revenue increased by 6%, but immunoglobulin growth of +7% fell short of forecasts; Kcentra sales decreased -16% due to rising competition.
- Specialty products remained flat, raising investor concerns about future margins; Seqirus grew by 2% but is under structural pressure, while Vifor saw an 8% gain driven by Tavneos and Velphoro.
- Management announced a cost-out program exceeding US$500m, including a potential 15% headcount reduction and R&D consolidation, with savings aimed at growth priorities.
- A demerger of Seqirus is planned before the end of FY26, creating a standalone ASX-listed vaccine business, alongside a reintroduction of an on-market buyback of A$750m in FY26.
- Despite these initiatives indicating a transformation commitment, uncertainty around reinvestment priorities and the prolonged margin recovery timeline contributed to negative market sentiment.
- Looking ahead, CSL projects FY26 NPATA of US$3.45–3.55bn at constant currency (+7–10% growth), supported by ongoing demand for core plasma therapies and new product contributions.
- Execution risks remain high due to plasma competition, tariff threats, and dependence on new product uptake, impacting sentiment.
Tyndall Asset Management
31 Aug 2025
$210.27
Summary
- Tyndall Asset Management notes that CSL detracted from performance in August.
- Reported a disappointing FY25 result.
- While revenue growth remained resilient, concerns arose regarding softness in the immunoglobulin franchise.
- Management removed the timeline for Behring gross margin guidance, raising investor concerns.
- Tyndall Asset Management continues to hold its position in CSL due to long-term potential despite recent challenges.
Pendal Group
31 Aug 2025
$210.27
Summary
- Pendal Group notes that CSL’s FY25 result was at the top end of guidance and aligned with market expectations.
- Management indicated adjustments in the US pricing structure leading to earnings downgrades of 2% in FY26 and 4% in FY27.
- Concerns regarding a structural deterioration in CSL’s core plasmabased business are viewed as overdone by Pendal Group.
- No signs of softening demand have been observed, maintaining expectations of improved margins and return on equity.
- CSL announced cost-cutting measures and a buyback.
- Pendal Group finds the valuation compelling, projecting low double-digit compound annual growth rates in earnings over the next three years.
Yarra Capital Management
31 Aug 2025
$210.27
Summary
- Yarra Capital Management continues to hold an underweight position in CSL Ltd.
- CSL, the ASX’s largest diversified biotech company, has underperformed following a significant corporate restructure.
- The company announced plans to spin off its Seqirus vaccine division, close plasma centres, and consolidate R&D operations.
- These measures aim to streamline operations and generate long-term savings but involve near-term costs of up to US$770 million.
- The restructuring introduces uncertainty regarding CSL's longer-term earnings trajectory.
- Yarra Capital Management believes that earnings growth from CSL's core blood plasma division will face greater challenges.
- Challenges include elevated and persistent cost pressures, increased competition, and a shift in product growth.
- There is also a risk of longer-term product substitution away from higher-margin specialty products.
Hyperion Asset Management
31 Aug 2025
$210.27
Summary
- Hyperion Asset Management notes a mixed FY25 result for CSL Ltd. (CSL), highlighting weaker-than-expected growth in the core immunoglobulin business.
- The underperformance is attributed to short-term/one-off factors, including the loss of a large UK tender and the impact of US Medicare Part D reforms.
- More conservative guidance has been provided regarding the timing of the Behring gross margin recovery, though not the quantum.
- This mixed performance was partially offset by strength in the Vifor business.
- The Seqirus demerger into a stand-alone ASX-listed company was unexpected but appears well-considered within the new operating model.
- The new model focuses on removing complexity by integrating the commercial and medical functions of the Behring and Vifor businesses.
- This integration aims to enable closer collaboration between R&D, business development, and commercialisation teams.
Selector Funds Management
31 Aug 2025
$210.27
Summary
- Selector Funds Management continues to hold a positive outlook on CSL Ltd, recognizing its position as a global plasma leader with a 30% share of the immunoglobulins market.
- CSL is undergoing significant restructuring, including cutting 3,000 jobs (15% of its workforce) to enhance productivity.
- The company is spinning off its vaccine business, Seqirus, to focus on a more streamlined operation aimed at accelerating innovation.
- Management acknowledges the need to pivot strategically to improve clinical and commercial execution, despite the associated short-term costs.
- CSL's gross margins have declined from 57% to the low 50% due to increased costs from donor fees and manufacturing inefficiencies.
- There is a commitment from CFO Joy Linton to restore gross margins to previous highs, with potential for further improvements through the Horizon 2 project.
- Despite a 21% drop in share price post-results and a 24% decline for the year, the market reaction reflects uncertainty around CSL's restructuring efforts.
- CSL's current valuation stands at A$103 billion, trading at a multiple of 18x with projected operating profits for FY25 of A$5.6 billion.
Clime Investment Management
31 Aug 2025
$210.27
Summary
- CSL was a detractor to performance in August, falling over 20% after a poorly received FY25 financial result and outlook.
- The main issue was a slowing in growth from their core plasma business, Behring.
- Guidance for FY26 indicated a 5% increase in EPS, below expectations of 10%.
- CSL is responding to moderated revenue growth by right-sizing costs.
- The market perceives that CSL's best years are in the past.
- Despite this, a 20% share price fall resulting in CSL being valued at a discount to the market seems excessive.
- CSL remains a strong business with strong value creation features.
- Clime Investment Management continues to see CSL as a core holding in an Australian shares portfolio.
ECP Asset Management
31 Aug 2025
$210.27
Summary
- ECP Asset Management notes that CSL Limited (CSL) underperformed in August due to headwinds in the US healthcare regulatory system.
- While FY26 guidance was within expectations, CSL downgraded its long-term Behring GP margin guidance due to ongoing FX headwinds and a slower ramp of new high-margin products.
- CSL is initiating a transformation project that includes a significant reorganization of its R&D function.
- The company aims to reduce its cost base by $500 million and will demerge its vaccine division.
- CSL plans to undertake a $500 million buyback.
- Despite challenges, CSL remains a leading global rare disease franchise with declining capex and a strong earnings growth profile.
Infinity Asset Management
31 Aug 2025
$210.27
Summary
- Infinity Asset Management continues to hold an overweight position in CSL Ltd (CSL).
- CSL’s stock declined 21.4% in August.
- The FY25 result and FY26 outlook are impacted by key issues facing Ig/plasma and Behring margins.
- Despite a healthy demand backdrop, near-term Ig growth is now expected to be mid- to high-single digit instead of the previously anticipated high-single digit.
- CSL is avoiding low-margin tenders, including a loss in the UK, which affects growth.
- Challenges include US Part D headwinds and a tougher tender environment.
- The negative Ig product mix features a shift towards more PRIVIGEN versus higher-margin HIZENTRA.
- Product rollouts are slower than planned, and elevated labor costs are associated with the RIKA rollout.
- Management anticipates a bumpier gross-margin recovery, now committing only to year-on-year improvement rather than the previous target of ~57% by FY28.
- FX volatility and the closure of 22 US plasma collection centres (about 7% of the footprint) are not expected to materially benefit earnings in FY26.
- As a result, investor sentiment is likely to remain subdued in the near-term, prompting a reduction in exposure post reporting season.
Seneca Financial Solutions
31 Aug 2025
$210.27
Summary
- CSL shares fell sharply in August, underperforming the broader market.
- FY25 earnings growth reported with revenue up by 5% and NPAT up by 17%.
- The sell-off was triggered by weaker-than-expected FY26 guidance.
- Investors are concerned about slower immunoglobulin growth, margin headwinds, and restructuring costs.
- Analysts noted FX pressures and delays in gross margin recovery.
- Execution risks were highlighted in CSL Behring.
- The company announced a demerger of Seqirus and projected US$700–770m in restructuring costs.
- Seneca Financial Solutions continues to hold because of the long-term potential despite short-term challenges.
Pendal Group
31 July 2025
$270.90
Summary
- CSL rebounded after a period of weakness due to uncertainty in the US pharmaceutical market pricing outlook.
- Pendal Group continues to see CSL as well placed to navigate the current landscape.
- CSL has the capability to expand its existing US manufacturing capacity.
- Recent investments in new technology and a reduction in capex provide scope for margin expansion.
- This strategy underpins improved returns on capital and potential valuation re-rating.
Wilson Asset Management
31 July 2025
$270.90
Summary
- CSL is a global biotechnology company focused on plasma therapies, vaccines, and treatments for rare diseases.
- In July, CSL experienced significant inflows into healthcare, benefiting from the unwind of Australian bank positioning.
- Previous setbacks have led to an inflection point for CSL, encouraging a more disciplined approach to capital allocation.
- This disciplined approach is expected to unlock meaningful cost-out opportunities in the near term.
- While tariff implications remain uncertain, market tolerance is increasing as uncertainty is being priced in.
- CSL operates in an industry with dynamics that are largely uncorrelated to the economic cycle, demonstrating resilience through consistent performance.
- With a long-term growth profile and earnings growth exceeding 10% per annum, CSL is viewed as attractively valued.
- Wilson Asset Management continues to hold CSL due to its potential for renewed investor interest and performance ahead.
Milford Asset Management
31 July 2025
$270.90
Summary
- CSL Ltd was the top contributor to Fund performance, rising 13.1% and contributing 90bps.
- CSL has successfully navigated challenges and is positioned for consistent earnings growth.
- The core Behring business is a key driver of this growth.
- CSL is not well owned by the market, trading at 22x earnings, which is attractive relative to other large ASX companies.
- There are some risks to consider, including struggles in the flu vaccine business due to low vaccination rates in the US.
- Uncertainty exists regarding the US Government’s drug pricing policies and their potential impact on Behring.
- Milford Asset Management continues to hold CSL, believing it has a very good outlook, while cautioning about potential short-term setbacks related to drug pricing.
Yarra Capital Management
31 July 2025
$270.90
Summary
- Yarra Capital Management continues to hold an underweight position in CSL Ltd.
- CSL, the ASX’s largest biotech company, showed a rebound in July, recovering some of its year-to-date underperformance.
- The recent outperformance is attributed to investors adjusting expectations regarding the impact of US government healthcare policy reforms.
- Key reforms include pharmaceutical import tariffs and Most Favoured Nation pricing outcomes.
- Despite the rebound, Yarra Capital Management maintains an underweight stance due to anticipated challenges in earnings growth.
- Challenges are expected from the core blood plasma division, which constitutes approximately 65% of group earnings.
- Factors contributing to these challenges include elevated and sticky cost pressures and increased competition.
- There are concerns over relative product growth rates moving away from higher-margin specialty products.
- Long-term risks include potential product substitution.
Tyndall Asset Management
31 July 2025
$270.90
Summary
- CSL (CSL) contributed positively to performance in July.
- A draft trade accord between the US and Switzerland was reported, suggesting preferred treatment for Switzerland to avoid pharmaceutical tariffs.
- The stock rallied due to this news, as Bern is where manufacturing is finalized, including the “fill and finish” process.
- Tyndall Asset Management continues to hold CSL as they believe in the positive implications of the trade accord.
SG Hiscock & Company
31 July 2025
$270.90
Summary
- SG Hiscock & Company continues to hold CSL due to its strong fundamentals despite recent stock weakness.
- Concerns around US tariffs on pharmaceuticals have impacted market sentiment.
- Headwinds in the flu business due to competition and a weaker flu season have been noted.
- Recent competitor results and industry data indicate robust demand for plasma-derived IG therapies.
- CSL is considering rebalancing R&D investments between internal activities and external partnerships.
- This strategy follows several late-stage setbacks in R&D product developments.
- SG Hiscock & Company anticipates more updates from CSL at its full year result in August.
- A disciplined allocation of capital and reduced execution risk is viewed as a positive step for the company.
Blackwattle Investment Partners
31 July 2025
$270.90
Summary
- CSL (CSL) has rebounded after a prolonged period of underperformance.
- News of planned cuts to R&D spending was positively received, following setbacks such as the failed Phase 3 trial of CSL112.
- CSL invests approximately 10% of revenue in R&D, which is higher than peers like Grifols (6%) but below large pharma (15–22%).
- The company is pivoting towards late-stage partnerships to lower trial risk.
- CSL’s economics are tied to plasma collection and fractionation infrastructure, making patent cliffs less impactful.
- There are risks around tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals and drug pricing in the USA, which could affect cash flow and valuation.
- However, CSL has significantly de-rated in valuation, and there is a renewed management focus on improving returns through efficiency programs.
- If tariff and drug price reform risks diminish, investors may once again assign a premium valuation to CSL due to its strong market position and attractive demand growth profile.
Maple-Brown Abbott
11 July 2025
$240.92
Summary
- Maple-Brown Abbott notes that CSL has significantly decreased in its market share, dropping from over 10% during COVID to 4.5% today.
- The fund manager observes that CSL's valuation peaked at close to 50 times forward earnings in 2020, coinciding with historically low interest rates.
- Since then, CSL has experienced a challenging five years, leading to a considerable derating of its stock.
- Currently, CSL is valued at 23-24 times earnings, which reflects its potential for decent growth.
- For the first time in a long while, Maple-Brown Abbott indicates a willingness to buy into CSL.
Alliance Bernstein
30 June 2025
$239.48
Summary
- Alliance Bernstein notes an underweight position in global biotechnology company CSL.
- Recent uncertainty regarding US drug pricing reforms has negatively impacted sentiment.
- The potential for pharmaceutical tariffs has also contributed to caution among investors.
- As CSL is a US dollar earner, the strength of the Australian dollar poses a headwind for the stock.
Oracle Advisory Group
30 June 2025
$239.48
Summary
- Oracle Advisory Group reports positive 1HFY25 results for CSL.
- Growth rate of CSL Behring stabilizing at 10%.
- Improvements in Behring margins expected from FY26 due to cost reductions.
- Factors contributing to margin improvements include optimised donor fees, RIKA blood collection programs, and other efficiencies.
- New high-margin products like Hemgenix and IG yield improvements will aid gross margin enhancements.
- Seqirus experienced a temporary 10% revenue decline in 1HFY25, but growth is expected to rebound in the second half.
- Seqirus is projected to achieve a low to mid-single-digit growth rate.
- CSL Vifor saw a 5% growth with expectations for further improvement due to new product launches.
- Overall, CSL Vifor is anticipated to grow at a mid to high single-digit rate.
- Stock considered attractively priced in the high $240s, prompting a top-up.
Flagship Investments
30 June 2025
$239.48
Summary
- Flagship Investments sold their investment in CSL Limited.
- The decision was made pending clarification on vaccination approvals by the FDA.
- Concerns regarding tariff arrangements with the US were also a factor.
- The US is a major market for CSL's products.
Clime Investment Management
30 June 2025
$239.48
Summary
- Clime Investment Management trimmed their position in CSL to fund new positions and portfolio changes.
- CSL remains a core holding due to its sound business fundamentals and pricing below earnings prospects.
- CSL's stock fell 3% in June, impacting relative performance.
- Despite reaffirming earnings guidance at the Macquarie conference, CSL faces negative investor sentiment, particularly regarding its Seqirus flu business.
- Seqirus contributes less than 15% to CSL's group earnings, indicating it is a small part of the overall business.
- The primary value driver for CSL is the Behring plasma business, which holds a market leadership position.
- This business benefits from a growing backdrop due to increased incidences of immune and autoimmune diseases.
- Despite some maturation in CSL's business and mixed results from the Vifor acquisition, Clime believes CSL is a privileged business compared to others on the ASX.
- With a 21x P/E ratio, CSL is viewed as a suitable core holding in Clime's Australian shares portfolios.
Yarra Capital Management
30 June 2025
$239.48
Summary
- Yarra Capital Management maintains an underweight position in CSL Ltd, the largest diversified biotech company on the ASX.
- This underweight stance has contributed positively to returns amid growing challenges facing the company.
- Key pressures impacting medium-term profit growth include:
- Increased competition in the core plasma business.
- Subdued demand for flu vaccinations in the USA, affecting the Seqirus business.
- Potential negative impacts from pending US pharmaceutical tariffs, particularly on the profitability of the Vifor division.
Pendal Group
30 June 2025
$239.48
Summary
- Pendal Group continues to hold an overweight position in CSL.
- CSL has experienced soft performance with uncertainty around pricing in the US market.
- The risk associated with pricing is viewed as overdone due to flexibility in supply chains.
- CSL maintains a strong competitive position in the industry.
- Future recovery in return on capital is anticipated, driven by lower capex.
- Higher margins in the core plasma business are expected as new technology investments take effect.
- The company is focusing on efficiency and cost reduction.
- This focus is believed to support earnings growth and a potential valuation re-rating.
Clime Investment Management
28 Feb 2025
$260.57
Summary
- Clime Investment Management notes that CSL was a detractor in February following its 1H profit result.
- CSL reported earnings growth of +5%, which fell short of market expectations for higher growth.
- The company reiterated guidance for a +10% growth in profit for the full FY25 year.
- Market skepticism exists regarding CSL's ability to achieve this guidance.
- Approximately 60% of CSL's full-year profit is generated in the 1H, necessitating a strong performance in the 2H.
- Clime Investment Management continues to hold its position in CSL, monitoring the company's performance closely.
Oracle Advisory Group
31 Dec 2024
$281.58
Summary
- Oracle Advisory Group updates their investment thesis on CSL Limited (CSL).
- The Behring division has shown some margin expansion.
- Continued to trim CSL holdings due to lacklustre growth in the Vifor and Sequirus divisions.
- Recent pipeline failures have also influenced their position.
Cooper Investors
31 Dec 2024
$281.58
Summary
- Cooper Investors added to their CSL Ltd (CSL) position during the December quarter.
- The market reacted negatively to CSL’s R&D Investor Briefing and potential challenges from US Health Policy.
- At the R&D briefing, CSL announced late-stage product setbacks and discontinued clinical trials.
- CSL112 did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint in a February 2024 update.
- Despite setbacks, CSL has a robust product pipeline with 21 programs across six therapeutic areas.
- Cooper Investors is attracted to CSL’s Growth and Stalwart attributes.
- Near-term earnings growth is expected to be in the mid-teens, driven by recovery in Immunoglobulin (IG).
- Gross margin improvement is anticipated through the rollout of RIKA.
- CSL management is now focused on demonstrating returns on capital from recent investments.
- Cooper Investors believes this focus should be reflected in shareholder returns.
Equity Trustees Asset Management
30 Sept 2024
$286.28
Summary
- CSL’s result was slightly better than expectations
- Outlook fell short of market forecasts
- Business is travelling well, especially for the Behring division
- Gross margin expansion expected to increase strongly into FY25 and beyond
- Growth expected to continue across all indications
- Seqiris division continues to hold share in a tough market
- Vifor is stabilising post CV19 impact and regulatory changes
- CSL offers a strong growth outlook over the next 2-3 years
- Current prices present potential value
Oracle Advisory Group
30 Sept 2024
$286.28
Summary
- Oracle Advisory Group has trimmed their position in CSL Ltd.
- The gross margin improved by 120bps at the key Behring division.
- There is lacklustre growth in other divisions – Vifor and Seqirus.
- The potential blockbuster CSL-112 has failed.
- Hemgenix launched, but immediate pipeline upside is modest.
- Garadacimab is ready for regulatory submissions.
- Overall, Oracle Advisory Group continues to hold a cautious outlook on CSL.
Clime Investment Management
30 Sept 2024
$286.28
Summary
- CSL fell over the month on limited news flow.
- Recent industry data supports a double digit growth outlook for CSL's key plasma franchise.
- Soft performance interpreted as large investors repositioning from defensives to cyclicals.
- China stimulus news late in the month influenced market shifts.
- Strong AUD against USD presented a headwind for CSL, which reports earnings in USD.
- Clime Investment Management continues to hold CSL due to its growth prospects.
Clime Investment Management
31 Aug 2024
$305.74
Summary
- Clime Investment Management sold their investment in CSL Ltd on valuation grounds.
- The Behring division showed promising signs of margin recovery and growth in higher-margin specialty products.
- However, the timeline for a full return to pre-COVID margins is estimated to be 2-4 years away.
- Ongoing struggles with Vifor included lackluster top-line growth and rising generic competition.
- CSL was trading at a significant premium to global peers.
- Given the near-term challenges ahead, Clime exited the position.
- The fund manager believes the stock no longer offered compelling value despite its long-term potential.
Clime Investment Management
30 June 2024
$292.60
Summary
- CSL's strong share price performance in June, up over 5%, was driven by market expectations of solid Behring performance.
- Growth in plasma collections should underpin a double-digit recovery in earnings.
- Stabilisation in bond yields positively impacted the share price.
- Clime Investment Management continues to see value at current levels.
Cooper Investors
31 Mar 2024
$285.67
Summary
- CSL (CSL) underperformed in the quarter due to the failure of drug candidate CSL112 in phase 3 trials.
- CSL112 did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint of reducing Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in heart attack survivors.
- Disappointment surrounding CSL112 trial results was magnified by earlier futility milestones.
- Sales growth expectations for Vifor, acquired for US$11.7bn, have been downgraded amid various headwinds.
- Vifor is facing earlier than anticipated generic competition and US insurer step edits affecting patient access to treatments.
- New products from Vifor, including Korsuva, have not met expectations.
- Management remains optimistic about Vifor's medium-term prospects, focusing on iron franchise expansion and new geography opportunities.
- Despite challenges, these issues do not undermine Cooper Investors' CSL investment thesis.
- CSL112 was not included in base valuation due to trial risks, but its failure represents meaningful value latency.
- Vifor accounts for approximately 13% of earnings, and expectations were already conservative.
- Upside potential from Behring (plasma) and, to a lesser extent, Sequiris (vaccines) is anticipated to drive long-term growth.
- Market may not fully recognize Behring’s multi-year economic improvements from operational efficiencies.
- Behring margins are expected to return to and exceed pre-Covid levels.
- No value is currently reflected in share price for opportunities surrounding self-amplifying mRNA vaccines.
- CSL and partner Arcturus to launch the world's first sa-mRNA vaccine in Japan later this year.
Clime Investment Management
31 Jan 2024
$301.70
Summary
- CSL Limited has seen a strong performance, increasing over 20% from its lows in the last quarter.
- The Healthcare sector experienced a sell-off in 2023, allowing Clime Investment Management to capitalize on buying opportunities.
- Despite the recent strong performance, Clime has reduced exposure to CSL Limited.
- Clime Investment Management remains convicted in the company's strong outlook.
- CSL Limited continues to hold a core position in Clime's investment portfolio.
Cooper Investors
30 June 2023
$277.38
Summary
- Fund holding: CSL (CSL) remains a key position for Cooper Investors.
- Market update: Recent guidance for FY23 constant currency earnings is largely in-line with previous projections.
- FX impacts: Unfavourable FX effects have increased compared to earlier outlooks.
- FY24 guidance: New guidance is ~12% below market estimates, leading to some underperformance.
- Market sentiment: Previous enthusiasm regarding the recovery in Behring margins has been reassessed.
- Operational challenges: Higher donor fees and lower volumes during COVID have negatively impacted operating leverage.
- Donor fees outlook: Management does not expect donor fees to return to pre-COVID levels.
- Recovery timeline: Margin recovery is now expected to take 3–5 years (FY26–28).
- No structural concerns: The update indicates no structural issues within the plasma business.
- Improving collections: Plasma collections continue to improve and demand remains robust.
- Operational efficiencies: CSL is pursuing operational efficiencies that should enhance medium to long-term margins.
- Market outlook: Some operational efficiencies may not yet be reflected in the company’s outlook.
- Margin expectations: Recovery of margins can happen within the guided timeframe, potentially exceeding pre-COVID levels if specialty products succeed.
- R&D portfolio: An attractive late-stage R&D portfolio provides additional confidence in the investment thesis.
Cooper Investors
31 Mar 2023
$288.30
Summary
- CSL remains a step ahead of peers: Significant expansion in plasma fractionation and purification facilities over the past 2-3 years enhances capacity for topline growth.
- Focus on operational efficiencies: Automation, quality control, and yield gains are prioritized, which supports margin expansion and higher returns.
- Advanced preparations for CSL112: The therapy is pending successful Phase 3 trials, with results expected early CY24, indicating strong confidence from CSL.
- CSL Vifor's manufacturing process offers protection against patent expiry: While competitive moats may not be as robust, complexity in the manufacturing process limits generic competition.
- Investment for growth: Construction of a "multicube" facility aims to increase reactor capacity by 50%.
- Longer investment time horizon: Reflects industry factors and the strength of CSL's strategy and management.
- Positive operating trends: Plasma earnings are recovering, and Vifor sales benefit from geographic and indication expansion.
- Key value latencies: Operational efficiencies in the plasma business are expected to boost margins above historical levels, alongside a robust late-stage R&D pipeline.
The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL)?
Fund managers including Cooper Investors, Oracle Advisory Group, Equity Trustees Asset Management, Maple-Brown Abbott, Pendal Group, Yarra Capital Management, Clime Investment Management, Alliance Bernstein, SG Hiscock & Company, Wilson Asset Management, Flagship Investments, Blackwattle Investment Partners, Milford Asset Management, Ten Cap, Infinity Asset Management, Tyndall Asset Management, Seneca Financial Solutions, Hyperion Asset Management, Elston Asset Management, ECP Asset Management, Airlie Funds Management, Selector Funds Management, Sage Capital, Prime Value Asset Management, Perpetual Asset Management, Sterling Managed Investments, Atlas Funds Management, Perennial Partners, ELM Responsible Investments, Platypus Asset Management, Pengana Capital Group and ClearBridge Investments have invested in CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL).
Why do fund managers invest in CSL Ltd?
Fund managers invest in CSL Ltd due to its robust core business in plasma therapies, despite recent challenges in the influenza vaccine segment. Key factors include a strong market position in high-demand plasma-based products, ongoing cost efficiencies, and significant R&D investments. Recent downgrades have created attractive valuations, presenting a potential upside as the company aims for medium-term profit growth. While concerns exist regarding its earnings visibility, the core operations remain solid, indicating a resilient risk/reward profile.
What happened to CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL)?
Fund managers are investing in CSL Ltd despite recent challenges, viewing it as a strong opportunity for future growth. Key reasons include CSL's leadership in the plasma therapy market, where it maintains a dominant position among global competitors. The company is implementing a $500 million cost reduction program and pursuing targeted R&D initiatives, which are expected to enhance profitability and drive sustainable earnings growth. Despite near-term uncertainties, such as a slowdown in the influenza vaccine sector and margin pressures, CSL's fundamentals remain attractive. Analysts highlight the potential for a turnaround, particularly with upcoming market opportunities and strategic initiatives aimed at restoring growth and managing costs.
What is the short interest in CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL)?
The short interest in CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL) is 0.47% which makes it the 284th most shorted stock on the ASX. Of the 485.2M shares that CSL Ltd has on issue, 2.3M have been sold short.
What does CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL) do?
CSL Ltd. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the manufacture, marketing, and distribution of biopharmaceutical and allied products. It operates through the following segments: CSL Behring, CSL Seqirus, and CSL Vifor. The CSL Behring segment provides plasma products, gene therapies, and recombinants. The CSL Seqirus segment includes predominantly influenza related products and provides pandemic services to governments. The CSL Vidor segment focuses on the distribution of products in the therapeutic areas of iron deficiency and nephrology. The company was founded on November 2, 1961 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
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