Fund Manager Summary on Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG)
In November 2025, Australian Eagle Asset Management commented that the share price had reached their valuation target and they exited their Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) position. Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) attracts a cautiously constructive consensus from fund managers: recent commentary places more weight on supportive iron ore market dynamics and a strong balance sheet but flags limited near-term upside after recent rallies and portfolio rebalancing by managers; Solaris in August 2025 disclosed a large position after the stock halved to around A$15–16 and iron ore eased to just over US$100/t (trading near US$102), citing slowed management churn, dividend support and a perceived price floor near US$90/t, Ten Cap in September and October 2025 noted strengthening conviction in resources with expectations of earnings upgrades as spot iron ore remained supported but trimmed FMG in October to lock gains and rotate into names with more attractive risk‑reward, and Australian Eagle’s November exit at about A$21.58 signals the stock has met some valuation targets; actionable insights are to monitor iron ore spot levels and any guidance revisions (structural tailwind if prices hold), track capital allocation and dividend policy given balance sheet strength, assess execution risk around scaled‑back green hydrogen ambitions and past management churn, and watch market rotation and relative valuations to time entries or rebalancing.
Commentary From The Managers
There are 4 insights from 3 fund managers regarding their investment in Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) available on Thesis Tracker.
Unlock Updates With ThesisTracker Pro
Don’t let information asymmetry undermine your investment returns. Join other engaged investors on ThesisTracker Pro.
Updates are made available to members within 12 hours of being released. The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Australian Eagle Asset Management
30 Nov 2025
$21.58
Summary
- Australian Eagle Asset Management believes Fortescue's share price now reflects its intrinsic value, and sold their investment because the shares reached our valuation target.
- Company profile: An integrated iron ore miner that is diversifying into green energy (renewables, hydrogen and decarbonisation initiatives).
- Valuation trigger: The exit was driven by valuation discipline — the market price met our target, reducing expected upside versus uncertainty.
- Commodity exposure: Earnings remain materially tied to iron ore prices and global steel demand, making returns cyclical and sensitive to macro conditions.
- Competitive position: Large-scale, low-cost operations provide a structural advantage, but margins can compress if prices or volumes deteriorate.
- Growth versus capital intensity: Green energy projects offer long‑term optionality but require significant capex and execution risk, which we weigh against near‑term cash returns.
- Capital allocation: Strong free‑cash‑flow potential supports shareholder returns and reinvestment, so future payouts or project spend will influence any re-entry decision.
- Risks monitored: Operational setbacks, execution risk on new energy ventures, regulatory/ESG pressures and demand shifts (notably China) remain key downside considerations.
- Ongoing stance: We will monitor operational performance, iron ore pricing and progress on green projects; a material reset in valuation or improved risk/reward could prompt reconsideration.
Ten Cap
31 Oct 2025
$21.29
Summary
- Ten Cap has trimmed their position in Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) to lock in gains after a strong performance.
- Despite this adjustment, Ten Cap remains constructive on iron ore.
- The fund is rotating into other resource names that offer more attractive risk-reward profiles.
Ten Cap
30 Sept 2025
$18.68
Summary
- Ten Cap maintains a positive outlook on the resources sector.
- Spot iron ore prices are well supported.
- Expectations for meaningful upgrades to earnings for both businesses are increasing.
- Ten Cap continues to hold its position based on these favorable market conditions.
Solaris Investment Management
11 Aug 2025
$19.42
Summary
- Michael Bell, chief investment officer of Solaris Investment Management, has taken a significant position in Fortescue Metals (ASX:FMG).
- Solaris was prompted to start buying when iron ore prices eased to just over $US100 a tonne.
- Current trading price of iron ore is around $102 a tonne in Singapore.
- Andrew Forrest has reduced his green hydrogen ambitions.
- The share price of Fortescue halved to around $15 per share, creating a buying opportunity.
- Solaris believes the balance sheet is strong and management churn has slowed.
- Solaris now holds a decent position in Fortescue, with expectations of strong dividend support.
- There is a perceived floor for iron ore prices near $US90 a tonne.
- Fortescue’s shares have rebounded over 30% from their April lows.
- Solaris seeks companies with improving industry dynamics, strong management, healthy balance sheets, and sustainable returns on equity.
The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG)?
Fund managers including Solaris Investment Management, Ten Cap and Australian Eagle Asset Management have invested in Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG).
Why do fund managers invest in Fortescue Ltd?
Fund managers invest in Fortescue Ltd due to its strong balance sheet, improved management stability, and solid dividend support. With iron ore prices finding a floor around $90 per tonne, the company shows promising growth prospects in the resources sector. As prices eased to favorable levels, some investors saw it as an opportunity for long-term gains. The rebound in share price from recent lows also reflects positive industry dynamics, making it an attractive option for cautious investment.
What happened to Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG)?
Fund managers have shown confidence in Fortescue Ltd (FMG) due to the stability of iron ore prices, anticipating upgrades in earnings. While they have locked in gains by reducing their positions after price increases, they maintain a positive outlook on FMG and the resources sector overall, suggesting a strategic shift towards other resource investments perceived as having better risk-reward profiles.
What is the short interest in Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG)?
The short interest in Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) is 2.18% which makes it the 122nd most shorted stock on the ASX. Of the 3.1B shares that Fortescue Ltd has on issue, 67.0M have been sold short.
What does Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) do?
Fortescue Ltd. engages in the development of iron ore deposits. It operates through the Metals and Energy segments. The Metals segment includes exploration, development, production, processing, sale, and transportation of iron ore, and the exploration for other minerals. The Energy segment is involved in the development of green electricity, green hydrogen, and green ammonia projects. The company was founded by John Andrew Henry Forrest in April 2003 and is headquartered in East Perth, Australia.