Fund Manager Summary
The fund managers believe that Fleetwood Ltd presents a compelling investment opportunity with significant potential for earnings growth driven by its Community Solutions division, particularly the Searipple Village asset. They anticipate an increase in occupancy rates from 34% in FY24 to 65% in FY25, which could elevate EBIT from $11.5 million to approximately $28 million. The managers highlight that securing additional contracts could push occupancy to 100%, resulting in EBIT exceeding $40 million. They project an EPS of $0.19 per share, offering a potential 10% dividend yield. With a strong balance sheet and predictable earnings from long-term contracts, the fund managers feel the current valuation does not reflect Fleetwood's true potential. They are confident in holding this under-researched stock despite its liquidity challenges.
Source: Trading View
Commentary From The Managers
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Sandon Capital
31 Oct 2025
$2.95
Summary
- Sandon Capital notes a solid update from FWD at its Annual General Meeting (AGM).
- Contracted occupancy for FY26 at the Searipple accommodation village is currently at 86%, an increase from 84% announced previously.
- There are opportunities for further improvement in occupancy as the year progresses.
- Building Solutions has expanded its order book to $150 million, with an additional $200 million in tenders and submissions pending award.
- Over 65% of Building Solutions' revenue comes from long-term panel agreements in sectors such as education, housing, and commercial.
- This positions Building Solutions for growth in FY26.
- The RV Solutions business is facing challenges but is undergoing a strategic review.
- Plans include closing local manufacturing, consolidating sites, and rationalizing product lines.
- There is an expectation for the RV Solutions business to return to profitability in FY26.
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Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Sandon Capital
31 Oct 2025
$2.95
- Sandon Capital notes a solid update from FWD at its Annual General Meeting (AGM).
- Contracted occupancy for FY26 at the Searipple accommodation village is currently at 86%, an increase from 84% announced previously.
- There are opportunities for further improvement in occupancy as the year progresses.
- Building Solutions has expanded its order book to $150 million, with an additional $200 million in tenders and submissions pending award.
- Over 65% of Building Solutions' revenue comes from long-term panel agreements in sectors such as education, housing, and commercial.
- This positions Building Solutions for growth in FY26.
- The RV Solutions business is facing challenges but is undergoing a strategic review.
- Plans include closing local manufacturing, consolidating sites, and rationalizing product lines.
- There is an expectation for the RV Solutions business to return to profitability in FY26.
Summary
Sandon Capital
31 Aug 2025
$3.07
- FWD is building upon a strong result reported in the first half.
- It is now starting to deliver on its long-heralded potential.
- The Searipple accommodation village is operating near capacity.
- Building Solutions is focusing on simplified systems and processes.
- This focus on winning repeatable work is delivering tangible benefits.
- Sandon Capital expects continued earnings and cash flow growth into FY26.
- Another year of very strong dividends is anticipated.
Summary
Ellerston Capital
31 Mar 2025
$2.53
- Fleetwood's strong momentum continued into March, following a 1H25 result that exceeded market expectations.
- Analysts upgraded their estimates based on Fleetwood's performance.
- Community Solutions remains a key driver of the business, with utilisation expected to be around 80% for FY25.
- Potential for continued improvement at Searipple, driven by major project accommodation demand in the Karratha region.
- Building Solutions has turned a corner and is expected to benefit from improving utilisation and margin expansion.
- The stock aligns with the 2050 portfolio due to its modular housing being significantly more energy efficient than traditional methods, thereby reducing carbon emissions.
Summary
Ryder Capital
31 Mar 2025
$2.53
- Ryder Capital reports that Fleetwood was a key contributor to performance for the quarter.
- Fleetwood's strong 1H25 results have led to a positive outlook for FY25.
- Nearly a 3x increase in underlying earnings compared to the previous year was reported.
- The company declared an interim fully franked dividend of 11.5c.
- Fleetwood's share price appreciated by approximately 30% during the quarter.
- The momentum from 1H25 results has continued into 2H25.
- A strong order book in building solutions is expected to drive further earnings growth.
- Full occupancy at Searipple accommodation village is anticipated to further increase earnings.
- A significant increase in fully franked income is expected for the full year and into FY26.
Summary
Asymmetric Asset Management
31 Mar 2025
$2.53
- Fleetwood reported a significant increase in revenue, earnings, and dividend in February.
- Strong growth was anticipated due to rising occupancy levels at Searipple Village in Karratha.
- Consensus forecasts for Fleetwood were considered undercooked.
- As a result, upward revisions continued, leading to a share price re-rating.
- The share price gained 6.3% in March.
- Asymmetric Asset Management continues to hold its position in Fleetwood.
Summary
Sandon Capital
28 Feb 2025
$2.38
- FWD delivered a stunning result with operating Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) of $18.3 million.
- Improvement of 190% on the previous year and 50% ahead of market expectations.
- Strong growth driven by the Community Solutions segment, supported by multi-year contracts at the Searipple accommodation village.
- Rapid improvement noted in the Building Solutions (manufactured accommodation) segment.
- Operational turnaround in the Building Solutions business gaining traction, translating into strong financial results.
- Expect continued improvement over the medium term, leading to strong cash flows due to the capital light nature of the business.
- The 11.5 cents per share fully franked interim dividend represented more than 5.5% yield on FWD’s share price prior to the announcement.
Summary
Ellerston Capital
28 Feb 2025
$2.38
- Fleetwood (FWD AU) has shown a significant performance increase, finishing up 27%.
- Ellerston Capital's investment thesis primarily focuses on occupancy at Searipple.
- Building Solutions has emerged as a standout, overcoming past challenges.
- The February results indicate that efforts to improve margins and ROIC are yielding positive outcomes.
- Fleetwood holds over $50m in cash with a $225m market cap, suggesting it is materially undervalued.
- Anticipated leverage over the next two years as Searipple starts generating substantial earnings and free cash flow.
Summary
Ellerston Capital
31 Oct 2024
$2.05
- FWD shares rallied 11.1% during the month following a solid trading update for its Searipple Village.
- Saipem Clough JV has entered into a binding agreement for accommodation, raising forecasted contracted room nights to 72% from 65%.
- This agreement is expected to further uplift earnings in FY25.
- At the end of the month, FWD updated the market with its 2024 AGM presentation.
- No significant new information was provided, but they confirmed previous targets around ROCE and ERP completion times.
- Ellerston Capital continues to hold FWD as a core position within the portfolio.
Summary
Sandon Capital
31 Oct 2024
$2.05
- Sandon Capital notes that FWD has secured additional occupancy for two years at its Searipple accommodation village in Karratha.
- The contract is with the Saipem Clough Joint Venture (SCJV), the prime contractor for the Perdaman Industries fertiliser plant.
- This is a take-or-pay contract, expected to generate a minimum of $13.5 million in revenue for FWD.
- SCJV has options to take additional rooms, indicating potential for further revenue growth.
- As a result, occupancy at Searipple is locked in at 72% for FY25.
- Occupancy is expected to remain high into FY26 and beyond, supporting strong earnings and cash flow.
- Sandon Capital continues to hold due to these positive developments underpinning FWD's financial outlook.
Summary
Ryder Capital
30 Sept 2024
$1.85
- Fleetwood rose +19% over the quarter
- Reported a somewhat subdued FY24 result that was in line with guidance
- Positive outlook with expectations for meaningful improvements in earnings for both building and communities segments
- Supported by a strong order book in building solutions
- Multi-year contracts at the Searipple accommodation village almost doubling occupancy
- Ryder Capital remains constructive on FY25
- Expecting a step change in underlying earnings and free cash flow generation
Summary
Cerutty Macro Fund
30 Sept 2024
$1.85
- Cerutty Macro Fund updates its investment thesis on Fleetwood Ltd after initial coverage in January 2024.
- Focus on the Community Solutions division, particularly the Searipple Village asset.
- Searipple was previously under-utilised and needed refurbishment, with significant earnings potential from improved occupancy rates.
- Projected occupancy rates to increase from 34% in FY24 to 65% in FY25.
- Expected earnings boost driven by higher margins, with anticipated EBIT growth from $11.5 million in FY24 to ~$28 million in FY25.
- Potential to approach 100% occupancy in FY25 and FY26, increasing earnings further.
- New regional projects present promising opportunities, with Perdaman project highlighted as a possible catalyst for stock price increase.
- At 65% occupancy, estimated EPS of around $0.19 per share in FY25 could yield ~10% dividend at current price of $1.90.
- With 100% occupancy, EBIT could exceed $40 million, yielding potential dividends of 15%.
- Fleetwood's capital return policy involves paying out 100% of NPAT as dividends and a $5 million share buyback.
- Current valuation at 8x EV/E for FY1 and 6x EV/E for FY2 underestimated.
- Majority of earnings come from tier-1 take or pay contracts with clients like Rio Tinto till FY27, providing stability.
- Identified risk is relative illiquidity, which is common for ASX stocks under $500 million market cap.
- Despite liquidity concerns, Cerutty Macro Fund believes liquidity cost is outweighed by Fleetwood's attractive valuation.
- Strong balance sheet with $39 million cash and no debt enhances investment confidence.
- Confidence in management team is noted as a strategic advantage.
- Overall, Cerutty Macro Fund sees value in holding this under-researched, under-owned stock.
Summary
Sandon Capital
30 June 2024
$1.55
- Sandon Capital notes that FWD made no major announcements during the month.
- Continued limited buy-back activities were observed.
- A large parcel of shares was traded, linked to a fund that announced it was winding up.
- The sale of this stake may have helped eliminate the overhang on shares.
- This elimination likely contributed to the improved share price performance of FWD for the month.
Summary
Ryder Capital
30 June 2024
$1.55
- Ryder Capital established a significant position of 7.52% in Fleetwood Ltd.
- The investment was primarily driven by value grounds.
- A liquidity window arose due to an existing shareholder being a forced seller.
- The fund manager sees potential for value appreciation in Fleetwood Ltd.
- Ryder Capital believes this investment aligns with their overall strategy.
Summary
Asymmetric Asset Management
31 May 2024
$1.43
- Fleetwood’s profit is expected to about double last year’s but will fall short of initial expectations.
- Asymmetric Asset Management considers the medium-term outlook for Fleetwood to still be highly attractive.
- However, manufactured accommodation division continues to weigh on overall performance.
- This division was impacted by delays in awarding Government announced projects such as school buildings and affordable housing.
- There has been a slowdown in commitments to other projects including worker accommodation.
- As long-term investors, Asymmetric Asset Management is not too perturbed by timing issues.
- Nonetheless, it is disappointing that operational issues remain, particularly regarding the integration of NSW into the Fleetwood Enterprise Resource Planning system.
Summary
Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
ANALYST INSIGHT
Equity Research Analyst
"With catalysts aligning and earnings poised for a significant leap, Fleetwood appears to be a hidden gem in a sea of overhyped stocks. As occupancy rates rise, so too could the market's appreciation of its true value—patience may just pay off handsomely."
Last Updated: 31 Oct 2025
Query The Data
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Fleetwood Ltd (ASX:FWD)?
Fund managers including Cerutty Macro Fund, Asymmetric Asset Management, Ryder Capital, Ellerston Capital and Sandon Capital have invested in Fleetwood Ltd (ASX:FWD).
Why do fund managers invest in Fleetwood Ltd?
Fund managers are investing in Fleetwood Ltd due to its strong potential for earnings growth driven by the under-utilized Searipple Village asset. With projected occupancy rates increasing from 34% to 65% in FY25, the company is expected to significantly boost EBIT, potentially reaching $28 million. Fleetwood's capital return policy, which pays out 100% of NPAT as dividends, combined with stable, long-term contracts with tier-1 clients, enhances its appeal. Despite current undervaluation, the strong balance sheet and anticipated catalysts make it a compelling investment, outweighing liquidity concerns.
What happened to Fleetwood Ltd (ASX:FWD)?
Fund managers are investing in Fleetwood Ltd due to its strong operational performance and growth potential. The Searipple accommodation village is nearing full occupancy, with a contracted rate of 86% for FY26. Additionally, the Building Solutions segment has expanded its order book to $150 million and has significant future opportunities, supported by long-term agreements that contribute to over 65% of its revenue. Despite challenges in the RV Solutions business, a strategic review aims for a return to profitability in FY26, indicating a positive outlook for continued earnings and dividends.