Summary
The fund managers believe that Goodman Group (GMG) is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for data centers, with a strong development pipeline of 4.3GW across 12 global cities. In their opinion, GMG's low gearing and balance sheet flexibility allow it to navigate rising interest rates effectively, making it less reliant on external partners. The management team, led by founder Greg Goodman, is seen as aligned with shareholders, enhancing confidence in operational execution. Fund managers noted that GMG's assets currently earn below market rents, with expectations for 20%-60% upward rental revisions upon lease expirations, supporting future cash flow growth. Despite recent share price increases, they believe GMG still offers upside potential due to its embedded performance fees and development revenues. Overall, the consensus is that GMG remains a high-quality investment with a promising growth outlook, particularly in the context of the data center market's expansion.
Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Source: Trading View
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Commentary From The Managers
Airlie Funds Management
4 Aug 2025
$34.39
Summary
- Airlie Funds Management views recent market fluctuations as a favorable buying opportunity for Goodman Group.
- The investment remains in the portfolio, reflecting confidence in the company's prospects.
- The balance sheet is positioned well, indicating financial stability.
- Upcoming results are anticipated to be critical for assessing execution on the pipeline.
- Potential insights on capital partnerships may emerge, enhancing growth prospects.
- Goodman Group offers unique exposure to significant market themes, particularly reflecting trends seen in the US.
- Overall, the setup for Goodman Group appears promising for investors.
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Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
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Commentary From The Managers
Airlie Funds Management
4 Aug 2025
$34.39
Summary
- Airlie Funds Management views recent market fluctuations as a favorable buying opportunity for Goodman Group.
- The investment remains in the portfolio, reflecting confidence in the company's prospects.
- The balance sheet is positioned well, indicating financial stability.
- Upcoming results are anticipated to be critical for assessing execution on the pipeline.
- Potential insights on capital partnerships may emerge, enhancing growth prospects.
- Goodman Group offers unique exposure to significant market themes, particularly reflecting trends seen in the US.
- Overall, the setup for Goodman Group appears promising for investors.
First Sentier Investors
4 Aug 2025
$34.39
Summary
- First Sentier Investors initiated a position in Goodman Group due to a recent capital raise.
- The capital raise has strengthened Goodman's balance sheet.
- This financial stability positions Goodman well for future growth.
- Data centres represent 50% of Goodman's growth pipeline.
- First Sentier Investors anticipates around 10% EPS growth in the near term.
- The fund manager believes Goodman is well-positioned for success.
- Overall, First Sentier Investors views Goodman Group as a buy.
Oracle Advisory Group
30 June 2025
$34.24
Summary
- Oracle Advisory Group continues to hold a positive outlook on Goodman Group.
- Recent results from Goodman and NextDC have alleviated market concerns regarding growth prospects.
- McKinsey forecasts a need for $6.7 trillion in data centre investment driven by AI demand.
- Nvidia’s Jensen Huang predicts data centre spending will double to $2 trillion in the next five years.
- Evidence shows that project sizes for both NextDC and Goodman are increasing.
- This supports the view of long-term growth in the data centre sector.
- As a result, weights in Goodman Group have been increased.
Pengana Capital Group
31 May 2025
$32.64
Summary
- Goodman Group (GMG) has shown year-to-date underperformance, which enhances its appeal in terms of valuation.
- Strong upside potential is driven by a growing data centre pipeline.
- This pipeline is expected to support development profits.
- There are opportunities for AUM growth and co-investment.
- Pengana Capital Group continues to hold its position due to these factors.
Wilson Asset Management
30 Apr 2025
$29.98
Summary
- Wilson Asset Management believes shares in Goodman Group were oversold due to leasing activity concerns and market valuation vulnerabilities.
- Both Goodman Group and NEXTDC have rebounded strongly following a market bounce.
- This recovery has been supported by positive commentary from major cloud data management providers like Meta Platforms regarding increased capital expenditure for AI infrastructure.
- Upcoming data points for NEXTDC will be available in May, with a presentation at the Macquarie Conference.
- Goodman Group is set to report its quarterly update later this month.
Blackwattle Investment Partners
31 Mar 2025
$28.43
Summary
- Blackwattle Investment Partners continues to hold an underweight position in Goodman Group (GMG).
- The long-term growth of data centres is being reassessed by investors.
- High PE multiples for GMG are currently being questioned.
- More efficient AI models may impact corporate IT spending.
- In a weaker economy, there is a risk of a lower growth rate for developers like Goodman.
- Potential for lower profit margins as the value chain contracts.
- Demand for GMG’s core industrial property offerings is influenced by the economic cycle.
- The company faces headwinds from US tariff policy.
Ten Cap
21 Mar 2025
$31.45
Summary
- Ten Cap considers Goodman Group as one of the best industrial property trusts globally.
- The company now provides fast track data centre exposure.
- Jun Bei Liu and Rudi Filapek-Vandyck have identified Goodman Group as an attractive buy at current levels.
- Both analysts believe it is a high-quality investment trading at a discount.
- Liu emphasized that Goodman has been a core holding for Ten Cap.
- The data centre opportunity enhances Goodman’s existing strengths in the property sector.
- Goodman has a strong existing client base for selling data centre capacity.
- Liu views this as a defensive way to tap into structural growth.
Oracle Advisory Group
30 Sept 2024
$36.99
Summary
- Oracle Advisory Group has trimmed several positions during the month.
- Goodman Group was reduced as its position size exceeded 40%, against a benchmark of 37%.
- The company has experienced an extremely positive performance over the last 2 years, with a consistent increase in share price.
- Goodman's share price has moved past estimated fair value, prompting a reduction in position size.
Greencape Capital
30 June 2024
$35.01
Summary
- Greencape Capital added Goodman Group to the portfolio nearly two years ago, following management closely.
- Admired multi-year shift to lower gearing and consistent focus on recycling assets into higher quality locations.
- Stock sell-off in late 2022, driven by rising interest rates, provided a unique investment opportunity.
- Lower gearing offers balance sheet flexibility amid increasing debt costs in the broader property market.
- Greencape believes GMG's balance sheet flexibility allows for more effective operations without heavy reliance on partners.
- Strong local market knowledge and relationships with power authorities enable GMG to transform key sites into data centers.
- Data demand has surged, especially with the advent of GenerativeAI, highlighting GMG's foresight in securing power in high-demand regions.
- Expanding presence in Asia and Europe, where data center capacity is still developing compared to North America.
- Market has begun to recognize GMG's unique land holdings, leading to outperformance in the share price.
- GMG expected to deliver at least mid-teens earnings growth, justifying a higher earnings multiple.
- Greencape conducted deeper research into GMG's locations in Japan and Europe to assess execution risk and demand dynamics.
- Comfortable with GMG's understanding of local nuances and participation in land amalgamation with local governments.
- Tsukuba's 1GW site is underway, with infrastructure development ongoing and potential for significant future value.
- FLAP-D markets in Europe include Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, and Paris, where GMG has strong positions.
- Potential for further site development in Europe, beyond what is currently recognized in GMG's Work In Progress.
- Upside potential remains for GMG as AI and data center demand continue to grow over the medium to long term.
Cooper Investors
30 June 2024
$35.01
Summary
- Goodman Group (GMG) is a key holding in the portfolio.
- The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for data centre capacity.
- Goodman Group has a robust development pipeline of 4.3GW across 12 global cities.
- Medium-term growth prospects appear promising.
- Cooper Investors is adopting a cautious approach due to the current hype surrounding the AI thematic.
Oracle Advisory Group
31 Mar 2024
$33.38
Summary
- Oracle Advisory Group believes Goodman is the best company within the Australian listed property sector.
- Recent half yearly update shows operating profit up 28.6% and operating EPS up 27.6%.
- This strong performance led to a 33.15% increase in share price.
- Goodman reported work in progress of $12.9bn across 12 countries.
- The forecast yield on the cost of these projects is 6.7% once completed.
- Data centres constitute about 37% of the work in progress.
- Goodman has taken a significant percentage of data centre work in progress onto its own balance sheet.
- This strategy is aimed at capturing upside in operating profits and higher valuations in this in-demand sector.
- Despite these investments, the balance sheet remains strong with 9% balance sheet gearing and 22.7% look-through gearing.
Greencape Capital
31 Dec 2022
$17.31
Summary
- Greencape Capital initiated a position in Goodman Group (GMG) due to their specialist focus on industrial property in high demand locations globally.
- The fund manager values the alignment between management, led by founder Greg Goodman, and shareholders due to significant executive ownership.
- GMG has experienced a derating of its earnings multiple, currently trading under 20x, which Greencape Capital sees as a favorable entry point.
- Strong growth in Assets Under Management (AUM) is expected, with recent increases driven by acquisitions, developments, and revaluation gains.
- GMG's assets are well-positioned to benefit from rising market rents, anticipated to grow by 20%-60% post-lease expiry due to low vacancy and increasing industrial demand.
- Recent improvements in net operating income growth (4.0% in 1Q23) and high occupancy rates (99%) indicate strong operational performance.
- Greencape Capital believes FY23 EPS growth guidance of 11% has upside potential, with management typically conservative in guidance updates.
- There is an estimated $1.2bn in performance fees not yet booked, with potential for release over time.
- GMG has significant development revenue held back, indicating potential future earnings growth as development activity increases.
- Overall, Greencape Capital views GMG as a high-quality business trading at an attractive valuation with strong growth prospects supported by demand in the industrial sector.
Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who has invested in Goodman Group (ASX:GMG)?
Fund managers including Greencape Capital, Cooper Investors, Oracle Advisory Group, Pengana Capital Group, Ten Cap, Blackwattle Investment Partners, Wilson Asset Management, First Sentier Investors and Airlie Funds Management have invested in Goodman Group (ASX:GMG).
Why have investment managers invested in Goodman Group (ASX:GMG)?
Fund managers have invested in Goodman Group (GMG) due to its strong positioning in the industrial property sector, particularly in data centers, which are experiencing significant demand growth. They appreciate GMG's founder-led management and alignment of interests, as well as its low gearing, which provides financial flexibility amid rising interest rates. The company has a robust pipeline of development projects, particularly in high-demand regions, and is expected to see substantial rental growth due to low vacancy rates and upward revisions upon lease expirations. Fund managers believe GMG's strategic focus on data centers, combined with its ability to capitalize on local market knowledge and secure power in key areas, positions it well for continued earnings growth. Overall, the current valuation presents an attractive investment opportunity as GMG is seen as well-equipped to navigate market challenges and leverage its competitive advantages.
What happened to Goodman Group (ASX:GMG)?
In recent comments regarding Goodman Group, fund managers have expressed strong bullish sentiments. Oracle Advisory Group noted in June 2025 that Goodman’s performance, alongside NextDC’s updates, alleviated market concerns about sector growth, particularly with McKinsey forecasting $6.7 trillion in data centre investments driven by AI demand. They increased their investment weights, highlighting the growing project sizes. Meanwhile, in August 2025, First Sentier Investors described Goodman as a buy, citing its solid balance sheet and pre-funded growth potential, projecting around 10% EPS growth. Airlie Funds Management echoed this sentiment, viewing the recent price dip as a buying opportunity, emphasizing Goodman’s strong positioning in the data centre market and its unique exposure on the ASX.