Fund Manager Summary
The fund managers believe that Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd presents a strong investment opportunity as it is positioned to capitalize on significant market potential. In their opinion, the recent increase in investment by Ryder Capital, totaling $2.3 million, highlights confidence in Lumos' strategic direction. With approximately $25 million in cash and non-dilutive grant funding from the US Government, Lumos is well-equipped to advance key projects, particularly in women's health and the FebriDx device for infection detection. The fund managers note the company’s 25% share price increase over the last quarter as indicative of positive momentum. They anticipate that FY25 will be a pivotal year if management executes their plans effectively, making Lumos a compelling prospect for investors looking for growth in the healthcare sector.
Source: Trading View
Commentary From The Managers
Subscribe To Unlock
Date
Price
Summary
Unlock Recent Updates With ThesisTracker Pro
Don’t let information asymmetry undermine your investment returns. Join other engaged investors on ThesisTracker Pro.
Ryder Capital
15 Oct 2025
$0.17
Summary
- Lumos Diagnostics (LDX) specializes in rapid point-of-care diagnostic testing with a versatile assay technology platform.
- Its flagship product, FebriDx, is a unique rapid test that differentiates between bacterial and non-bacterial infections, addressing a significant market need.
- Lumos recently reported strong clinical study results for FebriDx, achieving 99.1% concordance for bacterial and 98.4% for non-bacterial infections.
- The company submitted for a Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) waiver in August 2025, with an FDA decision expected by February 2026.
- If approved, the product’s addressable market could expand over 15-fold to exceed US$1 billion.
- Recent commercial progress includes a distribution agreement for FebriDx with PHASE Scientific, valued at up to US$317 million.
- Exceptional CLIA waiver study results and FDA submission enhance approval confidence.
- Lumos secured CPT code 0442U at US$41.38 from CMS, with strong coverage uptake by Medicare Administrative Contractors.
- Ongoing financial support from the US Biomedical Advance Research and Development Authority (BARDA) reinforces the company’s position.
- Strong product economics for FebriDx, with low manufacturing costs leading to attractive margins.
- Minimum order quantities from PHASE could yield approximately US$206 million in gross profit, positioning Lumos for rapid profitability.
Text:
Text:
Text:
Summary
-
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua, ut enim ad minim veniam.
-
Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat, sed ut perspiciatis unde omnis iste.
-
Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur, at vero eos et accusamus et iusto odio dignissimos.pedita.
Text:
Text:
Text:
Summary
-
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua, ut enim ad minim veniam.
-
Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat, sed ut perspiciatis unde omnis iste.
-
Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur, at vero eos et accusamus et iusto odio dignissimos.pedita.
Text:
Text:
Text:
Summary
-
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua, ut enim ad minim veniam.
-
Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat, sed ut perspiciatis unde omnis iste.
-
Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur, at vero eos et accusamus et iusto odio dignissimos.pedita.
Text:
Text:
Text:
Summary
-
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua, ut enim ad minim veniam.
-
Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat, sed ut perspiciatis unde omnis iste.
-
Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur, at vero eos et accusamus et iusto odio dignissimos.pedita.
Text:
Text:
Text:
Summary
-
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua, ut enim ad minim veniam.
-
Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat, sed ut perspiciatis unde omnis iste.
-
Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur, at vero eos et accusamus et iusto odio dignissimos.pedita.
Updates are made available to members within 12 hours in accordance with the ThesisTracker Pro Service Level Agreement.
Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Ryder Capital
15 Oct 2025
$0.17
- Lumos Diagnostics (LDX) specializes in rapid point-of-care diagnostic testing with a versatile assay technology platform.
- Its flagship product, FebriDx, is a unique rapid test that differentiates between bacterial and non-bacterial infections, addressing a significant market need.
- Lumos recently reported strong clinical study results for FebriDx, achieving 99.1% concordance for bacterial and 98.4% for non-bacterial infections.
- The company submitted for a Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) waiver in August 2025, with an FDA decision expected by February 2026.
- If approved, the product’s addressable market could expand over 15-fold to exceed US$1 billion.
- Recent commercial progress includes a distribution agreement for FebriDx with PHASE Scientific, valued at up to US$317 million.
- Exceptional CLIA waiver study results and FDA submission enhance approval confidence.
- Lumos secured CPT code 0442U at US$41.38 from CMS, with strong coverage uptake by Medicare Administrative Contractors.
- Ongoing financial support from the US Biomedical Advance Research and Development Authority (BARDA) reinforces the company’s position.
- Strong product economics for FebriDx, with low manufacturing costs leading to attractive margins.
- Minimum order quantities from PHASE could yield approximately US$206 million in gross profit, positioning Lumos for rapid profitability.
Summary
Ryder Capital
30 Sept 2025
$0.14
- Lumos Diagnostics represents a 7.5% portfolio weight.
- Standout quarter: Lumos rallied 437% from suppressed levels.
- Key commercial announcements include a distribution agreement for FebriDX with PHASE Scientific, valued at up to US$317 million.
- Completion of the CLIA Waiver Trial for FebriDX showed near perfect concordance: 99.1% for bacterial positive and 98.4% for non-bacterial tests.
- The trial data supports the CLIA Waiver Application submitted to the US FDA in mid-August.
- While applying probabilities is risky, Ryder Capital feels a positive FDA outcome is likely.
- Success in the FDA process could lead to a 15-fold+ increase in the addressable US market, exceeding US$1 billion p.a..
- This would enable immediate market launch via PHASE Scientific, unlocking upfront payments and immediate sales.
- Ryder Capital continues to hold due to the potential for a much higher valuation over time.
Summary
SG Hiscock & Company
31 July 2025
$0.07
- Lumos Diagnostics (ASX: LDX) experienced a significant surge of 170.4% in July due to a landmark exclusive US distribution agreement with PHASE Scientific.
- The six-year agreement is valued at up to US$317m (A$487m), marking a major strategic milestone for LDX.
- This deal represents one of the largest commercial agreements for an ASX-listed point-of-care diagnostics company.
- The PHASE agreement provides immediate funding support, including a US$1.0m exclusivity fee and US$2.5m in early-stage pre-paid orders.
- Additionally, a further US$5.0m will be received upon the receipt of a CLIA waiver from the US FDA.
- These funds, combined with a newly announced A$5.0m secured debt facility, enhance LDX's financial runway for ongoing clinical and regulatory preparations.
- The funding strategy reduces shareholder dilution risk by replacing the previously undrawn second tranche of the convertible note facility.
- Operationally, LDX is nearing completion of its CLIA waiver study, with 105 of 120 bacterial-positive patients enrolled.
- The study is expected to complete in August, with the FDA CLIA waiver application submission anticipated shortly thereafter.
- Approval of the CLIA waiver would allow FebriDx® to be used in non-complex US healthcare settings, unlocking significant reimbursement opportunities.
- With reimbursement strategy development and commercial infrastructure buildout underway, July is seen as a turning point for LDX.
- SG Hiscock & Company believes LDX is transitioning from an undercapitalised developer to a more commercially aligned healthcare company.
- The partnership with PHASE materially de-risks the pathway to market for FebriDx® and validates its clinical and commercial potential.
- Looking ahead, the CLIA waiver submission and approval process is a key near-term catalyst for LDX's success.
- Strong partner alignment, non-dilutive milestone funding, and improving financial flexibility suggest LDX is on a viable pathway to value realisation.
Summary
Ryder Capital
30 Sept 2024
$0.04
- Ryder Capital has increased its investment in Lumos Diagnostics by $528k through an accelerated rights entitlement.
- Jointly sub-underwritten the retail rights entitlement of $1.8m with Tenmile Ventures, part of Tattarang.
- Ryder and associated entities now own a significant 17% of Lumos Diagnostics.
- Lumos has approximately $25m in cash and access to non-dilutive grant funding from the US Government.
- Lumos is positioned to progress on several important and value-accretive projects in the next 12 months.
- The company’s shares rose 25% over the quarter due to advancements in rapid point of care products in women’s health and the FebriDx device.
- Lumos successfully raised $10m before costs to develop the FebriDx market opportunity, which is deemed potentially significant.
- Ryder Capital's support was instrumental in the capital raise through joint sub-underwriting.
- FY25 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for Lumos, contingent on effective execution of management’s plans.
Summary
Ryder Capital
30 June 2024
$0.03
- Lumos Diagnostics (LDX) experienced a 9% decline due to operational progress being overshadowed by a chronic funding shortfall.
- Support from major shareholders, including Ryder Capital, was necessary to address funding issues.
- Post balance date, LDX's share price has seen a significant increase following a pivotal distribution agreement for the FebriDx product, valued at up to $487 million.
- The agreement's value is contingent on regulatory and commercial success, but Ryder Capital is confident in LDX's ability to secure the necessary CLIA waiver approval from the FDA.
- Ryder Capital has increased its holding in LDX by co-underwriting an entitlement issue that raised approximately $10 million.
- This move has increased Ryder Capital's exposure to approximately 2% through both entitlement and shortfall underwriting.
- For the associated risk, Ryder Capital received 18.7 million unlisted options with a $0.07 strike price and a 2-year expiry, along with a modest cash fee.
Summary
Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
ANALYST INSIGHT
Equity Research Analyst
"Investing in Lumos Diagnostics feels like striking gold at the right moment; with substantial cash reserves and a promising pipeline, the potential for FY25 is tantalizingly high. If they execute, we could witness a significant transformation in women’s health and infection detection."
Last Updated: 15 Oct 2025
Query The Data
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd (ASX:LDX)?
Fund managers including Ryder Capital and SG Hiscock & Company have invested in Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd (ASX:LDX).
Why do fund managers invest in Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd?
Fund managers are investing in Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd due to its attractive valuation and strong financial position, highlighted by significant cash reserves and nondilutive grant funding. With a focus on innovative rapid point-of-care products and the promising FebriDx device, which addresses bacterial vs viral infections, Lumos is poised for growth. The recent capital raise of $10 million further supports their strategic initiatives, making FY25 a critical year for potential value creation.
What happened to Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd (ASX:LDX)?
Fund managers are investing in Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd due to its strategic partnership with PHASE Scientific, which includes a significant US distribution agreement valued at up to US$317 million. This partnership enhances Lumos's financial stability through immediate funding and reduces shareholder dilution risks. The recent completion of the CLIA waiver trial for their flagship product, FebriDx, shows promising results, supporting the upcoming FDA submission that could expand its market potential over 15-fold. With strong clinical data, a clear path to commercialization, and ongoing financial backing, Lumos is positioned for substantial growth in the diagnostics market.