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Mineral Resources Ltd

Mineral Resources Ltd

ASX:MIN

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Fund Manager Summary

The fund managers believe that the outlook for Mineral Resources Ltd presents significant opportunities, particularly given the company's strong positioning in iron ore, lithium, and mining services. In their opinion, the recent decline in share price, attributed to a drop in iron ore prices and bearish reports on lithium, does not reflect the inherent value of the company. They highlight the long-life, low-cost Ashburton iron ore project set to commence production by late CY23/early CY24, which they believe will enhance the mining services business. Furthermore, the fund managers expect Mineral Resources to capitalize on its massive lithium growth pipeline, supported by a successful US$1.25b bond issue and sustained lithium prices. Their recent visit to the new Perth headquarters reinforced their confidence in management’s vision and commitment to industry leadership.

Source: Trading View

Commentary From The Managers

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Pendal Group

3 Nov 2025

$46.02

Summary

  • Pendal Group continues to hold its position in Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN).
  • Reported a better-than-expected Q3 performance.
  • All operations are performing strongly.
  • Stronger pricing observed in key commodities.
  • Despite positive results, deleveraging was not achieved due to front loading of capex.
  • Overall, the results are viewed as favorable by Pendal Group.

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Commentary From The Managers

Pendal Group

3 Nov 2025

$46.02

  • Pendal Group continues to hold its position in Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN).
  • Reported a better-than-expected Q3 performance.
  • All operations are performing strongly.
  • Stronger pricing observed in key commodities.
  • Despite positive results, deleveraging was not achieved due to front loading of capex.
  • Overall, the results are viewed as favorable by Pendal Group.

Summary

L1 Capital

31 Oct 2025

$48.40

  • Mineral Resources shares increased by 18% due to strong operating performance and a recovering lithium market.
  • In October, the Onslow Iron Project achieved its nameplate 35Mtpa run rate, triggering a $200m contingent payment from MSIP.
  • Completion of haul road upgrades and consistent operation at nameplate capacity represent a significant derisking milestone.
  • At full run-rate with US$100/t iron ore prices, Onslow is expected to generate approximately $1.3b in EBITDA, aiding in balance sheet de-leveraging.
  • The September quarterly report indicates that the company is tracking to or exceeding full-year guidance across all segments.
  • L1 Capital continues to hold its position, believing that each of Mineral Resources’ core segments will see meaningful improvement in the medium term.
  • The current share price presents a compelling risk-reward opportunity.

Summary

Antares Capital

31 Oct 2025

$48.40

  • Antares Capital added Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN) to its portfolio.
  • Improving operations at the Onslow iron ore mine have contributed to this decision.
  • There are ongoing reservations about MIN governance.
  • Expectations for the company to focus on deleveraging with enhanced cash flow from operations.
  • The stock offers exposure to both iron ore and lithium markets.

Summary

L1 Capital

16 Oct 2025

$42.49

  • L1 Capital observes a significant rise in Mineral Resources Ltd's shares, increasing over 90% during the September quarter.
  • The recovery in commodity prices has positively impacted the company's performance.
  • The successful completion of the onslaught iron ore project is a notable achievement for the company.
  • Market sentiment remains focused on lithium price volatility, which has created ongoing debate around the company.
  • The appointment of Mal Bundy as chairman is seen as a positive development, enhancing governance and oversight.
  • Mal Bundy has initiated board renewal by appointing four non-executive directors, including known figures at L1 Capital.
  • There is a public focus on inorganic investments to strengthen the balance sheet and financial flexibility.
  • The onslaught iron ore project's progress is expected to drive material earnings uplift for the company.
  • Iron ore prices holding above $100 a tonne have aided the company's balance sheet leveraging.
  • Despite lithium price challenges, Mineral Resources is diversifying its business model, becoming better positioned for commodity cycles.
  • The mining services segment, underpinned by $1 billion in EBITDA, is not directly linked to commodity prices and is expected to grow.
  • Current iron ore prices are projected to generate over $1 billion in EBITDA from the onslaught project alone.
  • L1 Capital is optimistic about a recovery in lithium prices over the next 12 months, which will benefit the company.
  • The new chair's focus on reducing leverage is viewed as essential for maintaining resilience in volatile markets.
  • L1 Capital sees a favorable opportunity in Mineral Resources, particularly when shares were undervalued relative to the mining services business.
  • Both Raph and Mark at L1 Capital emphasize a collaborative approach to investment decisions, ensuring thorough analysis and agreement before increasing positions.
  • Key issues addressed by L1 Capital include onslaught project progress, adhesion to governance, and overall company governance.

Summary

Lanyon Investment Fund

30 Sept 2025

$41.14

  • Lanyon Investment Fund has a significant position in Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN), viewing the shares as materially mispriced.
  • Current market conditions reflect widespread hysteria and coordinated short selling.
  • There is a clear path forward for a substantial re-rating of the shares in the coming years.
  • The fund highlights the extreme level of undervaluation and strong operating performance of the company.
  • Additionally, 12.9% of the fund is invested in gold companies that are sensibly managed.
  • The share prices of these gold companies do not reflect a reasonable view of the long-term gold price.

Summary

L1 Capital

30 Sept 2025

$41.14

  • L1 Capital notes a strong rally in Mineral Resources shares (+90%) due to a significant rise in lithium prices (+36%) from multi-year lows.
  • Closure of a major Chinese operator owned by CATL and speculation of further Chinese supply cuts have contributed to this price increase.
  • Completion of the Onslow Iron Project road upgrades has eliminated the last bottleneck, enabling full project capacity.
  • Prior to full road completion, the Onslow project exceeded targeted iron ore shipments (3.2Mt in August vs. 2.9Mt nameplate).
  • At full run-rate and US$100/t iron ore prices, Onslow is expected to generate approximately $1.3b in EBITDA, aiding in balance sheet de-leveraging.
  • Announcement of a US$700m 2031 bond offering to replace maturing bonds from 2027, improving near-term liquidity.
  • Progress towards a Board and governance reset with new Non-Executive Directors appointed, following Malcolm Bundey's role as Chairman.
  • L1 Capital believes each core segment of the company will see material improvement, maintaining a compelling risk-reward scenario at current share prices.

Summary

PM Capital

31 Aug 2025

$36.86

  • PM Capital reports strong performance driven by commodities positions.
  • Mineral Resources Ltd saw a significant increase, up 31%.
  • Recovery attributed to a rebound in lithium prices.
  • Expectations of rising EV demand support lithium market.
  • Chinese mining restrictions have reduced production from major producers.

Summary

Firetrail Investments

31 Aug 2025

$36.86

  • Firetrail Investments continues to hold its position in Mineral Resources Ltd due to a significant 31% increase in share price over the past month, totaling 73.5% growth since June 30.
  • This rise was primarily driven by a 23% surge in lithium prices and a further 5% increase in iron ore prices, enhancing overall cash flow.
  • Operational performance at the Onslow iron ore project has markedly improved, with production now at an annualised rate of 35 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), up from previous levels below 30mtpa.
  • This operational success positions the project to trigger a cash payment from haul road partner Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners.
  • Governance improvements are evident, with new Chair Malcolm Bundy implementing stronger Board oversight and discipline.
  • The market has positively received the appointment of Lawrie Tremaine, former CFO of Woodside and Origin, as an independent director.

Summary

L1 Capital

31 Aug 2025

$36.86

  • Mineral Resources shares increased by 31% as lithium prices rose 23% from multi-year lows.
  • Price increase driven by the closure of a major Chinese operation owned by CATL and speculation about further supply cuts.
  • Released 2025 financial results, indicating the Onslow Iron Ore project is on track for full capacity in August.
  • Expected annualised production of 35Mtpa, with projected EBITDA of $1.3 billion at US$100/t iron ore prices.
  • Onslow's success is anticipated to significantly aid in balance sheet deleveraging.
  • Ongoing progress in Board and governance reset is viewed as very positive.
  • Appointment of two respected new Non-Executive Directors and Malcolm Bundey as Chairman.
  • L1 Capital believes each core segment will see material improvement in the medium term.
  • Current share price presents a compelling risk-reward scenario.

Summary

L1 Capital

31 July 2025

$28.59

  • Mineral Resources shares increased by 33% as lithium prices recovered from multi-year lows, driven by speculated supply cuts in China.
  • Iron ore prices also rose, influenced by expectations of Chinese policy addressing overcapacity and supporting steel margins.
  • In June, Onslow Iron Ore project achieved iron ore shipments of 2.7Mt, with an annualized run-rate of approximately 32.4Mtpa against a nameplate capacity of 35Mtpa.
  • Production guidance for FY26 is set at 30-33Mtpa.
  • At full run-rate with iron ore prices at US$100/t, Onslow is expected to generate approximately A$1.3b in EBITDA, aiding in balance sheet de-leveraging.
  • Strong cost improvements were reported at the Wodgina lithium mine, which is promising given the challenging lithium price environment.
  • New Non-Executive Directors Lawrie Tremaine and Ross Carroll were appointed, alongside new Chairman Malcolm Bundey, enhancing the Board and governance.
  • L1 Capital continues to hold due to the belief that each core segment will see material improvement and the current risk-reward profile is compelling.

Summary

L1 Capital

3 July 2025

$24.44

  • A site visit to the Onslow iron ore operations reaffirmed L1’s conviction in the long-term value.
  • The visit showcased progress on key infrastructure including port and haul roads, and a commitment to staff wellbeing.
  • Production is on track to hit 35Mtpa capacity by 2025 with room to grow.
  • L1 views this as an inflection point akin to Qantas in 2023, when Qantas turned around from public scrutiny and share price lows to double in value.
  • Similarly, L1 sees potential for MinRes to rerate if it executes on production guidance, governance reform, and earnings growth.

Summary

Airlie Funds Management

30 June 2025

$21.56

  • Airlie Funds Management sold their investment in Mineral Resources due to a significant downgrade in their assessment of management quality.
  • There was a lack of comfort with the financial strength of the business.
  • The operational complexity of ramping up the Onslow iron ore mine contributed to the decision.
  • Overall, the risk profile of the investment had changed considerably.

Summary

Antares Capital

30 June 2025

$21.56

  • Antares Capital exited their position in Mineral Resources (MIN) during the June quarter.
  • The decision was driven by growing concerns that outweighed the longer-term upside in lithium and iron ore businesses.
  • Key factors included a stretched balance sheet relative to ambitious plans.
  • The scale and timing of capital spend became more aggressive than the balance sheet could support.
  • Net debt has risen sharply, with capex commitments pushing higher.
  • There is less headroom to navigate potential commodity price volatility or project delays.
  • Concerns about governance arose from recent board turnover and influence concentrated with founder Chris Ellison.
  • Questions were raised around capital discipline, board oversight, and alignment of risk-taking with shareholder returns.
  • Related-party transactions and governance controversies added to discomfort about oversight and accountability.
  • Antares Capital's discussions with the new Chairman indicated a commitment to retain the current CEO, which they do not support.
  • Elevated gearing, ballooning capital outlay, and governance red flags led to a weaker margin of safety than required.
  • Antares Capital prefers to step aside and monitor for signs of a more sustainable balance sheet and improved governance.
  • They are open to revisiting MIN if the company demonstrates disciplined delivery and prudent capital management.

Summary

L1 Capital

30 June 2025

$21.56

  • Mineral Resources’ underperformance in the June quarter was mainly due to a 14% decline in April, driven by cautious investor sentiment and market volatility.
  • Investor concerns were heightened by widening high yield bond spreads and weakness in commodities markets, particularly in iron ore and lithium spodumene prices.
  • Despite the downturn, the company’s Q3 25 results were positively received, highlighting shipment improvements from its Onslow Iron project.
  • Mineral Resources reported material improvements in the operating costs of its lithium assets.
  • The company has stated that an equity raising is not currently under consideration, citing strong liquidity and other resources available.
  • The share price ended the quarter down 10%, but L1 Capital believes that core segments will see material improvement over the medium term.
  • L1 Capital continues to hold because they find the risk-reward at current share price levels compelling, with significant upside potential as Mineral Resources executes key growth projects.

Summary

L1 Capital

30 Apr 2025

$20.59

  • Mineral Resources (Long -14%) shares experienced a decline due to cautious investor sentiment and market volatility.
  • Investor concerns were heightened by widening high yield bond spreads and weakness in commodities markets, particularly iron ore and lithium spodumene.
  • In April, Mineral Resources released Q3 25 results that were well received, helping to partially reverse earlier share price declines.
  • The company provided granular guidance for shipment improvements from its Onslow Iron project expected in May-June.
  • Reported material improvements in the operating costs of its lithium assets.
  • Mineral Resources clarified that an equity raising is not currently under consideration, alleviating market concerns regarding its elevated leverage.
  • This clarification contributed to a strong intramonth share price rally.
  • L1 Capital believes that each of the company’s core segments should see material improvement over the medium term.
  • As a result, L1 Capital finds the risk-reward at current share price levels compelling, indicating significant upside potential as Mineral Resources executes its key growth projects.

Summary

L1 Capital

31 Mar 2025

$23.97

  • Mineral Resources’ share price declined 30% during the March quarter.
  • The decline was attributed to a 3-month delay in ramping up the Onslow Iron Ore Project.
  • There was an additional $300m capital expenditure needed to upgrade and repair the haul road due to severe weather damage.
  • L1 Capital refers readers to the February 2025 Monthly Report for further commentary on Mineral Resources.
  • L1 Capital continues to believe that the earnings of Mineral Resources’ core segments (Mining Services, Iron Ore, and Lithium) should see material improvement from current levels over the medium term.

Summary

Oracle Advisory Group

31 Mar 2025

$23.97

  • Oracle Advisory Group sold their investment in Mineral Resources (MIN) due to serious allegations against the CEO including tax evasion, personal use of company resources, and related party dealings.
  • Concerns were raised about a toll road built for $568m which needed a significant $230m repair shortly after its completion.
  • A 49% stake in the toll road was sold to Morgan Stanley for $1.1bn, leading to potential legal implications.
  • News of the CEO's continuation for another 18 months raised fears of further detrimental impact on the company.
  • With lithium prices falling and a terrible outlook for iron ore, MIN's heavy debt load presents an increasing risk for shareholders.
  • The ongoing situation highlighted the necessity for management to be both capable and ethical.
  • Unethical management often indicates larger issues, likened to the tip of a "fraud-berg" that threatens shareholder value.
  • Uncertainty regarding management's character complicates future predictions, making investment calls more challenging.
  • Oracle Advisory Group emphasized avoiding associations with dishonest leadership in their investment strategy.

Summary

PM Capital

31 Mar 2025

$23.97

  • PM Capital continues to hold its position in Mineral Resources Ltd.
  • Recent delays in the ramp-up of the Onslow iron ore project due to necessary repairs and upgrades to the iron ore haul road.
  • The commencement of operations has been impacted, leading to higher capital expenditure.
  • A temporary delay in the production schedule has resulted in higher net debt than initially anticipated.
  • Concerns have arisen regarding a potentially dilutive and expensive capital raise.
  • However, PM Capital views a capital raise as unlikely at current commodity prices and has maintained its investment.
  • Holdings include both Mineral Resources equity and 2028 senior debt.
  • While the equity has negatively contributed to performance, the debt investment has been a positive contributor since initiation.

Summary

L1 Capital

27 Mar 2025

$24.76

  • L1 Capital significantly increased its stake in Mineral Resources Ltd following a 40% drop in share price.
  • The drop was attributed to a delay in the Onslow Iron Ore Project and an additional $300 million CapEx requirement.
  • L1 Capital considers the sell-off to be excessive and views MIN as materially undervalued.
  • The mining services division is perceived as being worth the company’s entire enterprise value.
  • Additional upside is anticipated from the ramp-up of the Onslow project, projected to generate $750 million in earnings.
  • L1 Capital highlights the value of its lithium assets, particularly the 50% stake in Wodgina and ownership of Mt Marion, which the market currently values at zero.
  • The balance sheet is viewed as resilient, with no imminent debt rollover and multiple options for asset sales, making equity raising unnecessary.

Summary

Katana Asset Management

28 Feb 2025

$22.71

  • Katana Asset Management continues to hold its investment in Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN) despite recent declines.
  • MIN's stock fell by 35% in February, compounding previous losses.
  • The fund has been invested in MIN since 2006, demonstrating a deep familiarity with the business.
  • This current downturn is viewed as temporary; "this too will pass".
  • Future improvements are expected, including the repair of the haul road and a potential recovery in lithium prices.
  • Cashflows from Mining Services and other operations are anticipated to help deleveraging the balance sheet.
  • Investors may reassess MIN's value post-crisis, recognizing the Onslow iron ore project and suite of Lithium mines.
  • Historical performance shows that MIN has previously rewarded patient shareholders with dividends and capital growth.

Summary

L1 Capital

28 Feb 2025

$22.71

  • L1 Capital continues to hold an investment in Mineral Resources despite a 35% decline in shares due to delays and additional capital expenditure.
  • The recent share price reaction is viewed as excessive, reducing market capitalisation by over $2.6b.
  • At current levels, Mineral Resources is considered incredibly undervalued with a market capitalisation of just over $4b and an enterprise value of $9.2b.
  • The company has three key business segments contributing to its value:
    • A high-quality mining services business growing EBITDA at over 20% per annum, expected to generate close to $1b p.a. in FY27.
    • A rapidly growing iron ore business expected to deliver about $750m in FY27 EBITDA, post ramp-up of the Onslow project.
    • A lithium business with significant potential value, possibly around $3b, despite current pricing challenges.
  • Concerns over the company’s balance sheet are recognized, but improvements in gearing metrics are expected over the next 12 months.
  • No near-term debt maturities and several asset sale options are available for deleveraging.
  • Progress in corporate governance is noted, with a new Chair expected to be announced in the June 2025 quarter.
  • L1 Capital believes the current share price of around $21 presents a compelling risk-reward scenario with significant upside potential.

Summary

Airlie Funds Management

31 Dec 2024

$34.25

  • Mineral Resources Ltd. experienced a significant decline of -34% following governance issues.
  • Resignation of the Chairman and a commitment from CEO Chris Ellison to resign within 12-18 months.
  • Airlie Funds Management substantially reduced their position due to high gearing and management uncertainty.
  • The need for perfect execution on the Onslow iron ore ramp raised concerns.
  • Historical challenges show that large new mines rarely ramp up on schedule, on time, and on budget.
  • Management disarray, high debt, and potential production misses could significantly impact equity value.

Summary

PM Capital

31 Dec 2024

$34.25

  • PM Capital continues to hold both Mineral Resources equity and the company’s October 2028 Senior Unsecured bonds.
  • Mineral Resources has been a major topic on the ASX due to lithium and iron ore market fluctuations.
  • Shares in the company have declined 34% amid serious governance allegations.
  • The governance issues are acknowledged but considered outside the initial investment thesis.
  • PM Capital has assessed the potential impact of governance issues on future leadership and strategic direction.
  • Despite governance failings, PM Capital believes the value of Mineral Resources' assets supports the current price.
  • PM Capital maintains a focus on the company’s diversified mining operations.

Summary

Oracle Advisory Group

31 Dec 2024

$34.25

  • Oracle Advisory Group updates its investment thesis on Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN).
  • The departure of the tainted CEO is seen as a positive change for the company.
  • Shareholders faced significant losses, with a 51% drop in stock price in 2024 due to unethical practices.
  • Despite the turmoil, current stock price is considered undervalued.
  • Concerns over leverage have diminished due to successful asset sales totaling $2.4 billion (Onslow haulage road for $1.3 billion and energy deal with Gina Reinhardt for $1.1 billion).
  • Oracle Advisory Group believes that most of the downside is reflected in the current price.

Summary

Lanyon Investment Fund

31 Dec 2024

$34.25

  • Lanyon Investment Fund has increased its investment in Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN).
  • The shares experienced a decline of -34% over the quarter due to corporate governance criticisms.
  • Despite the disappointing performance, Lanyon Investment Fund maintains its belief in a significant near-term and sustainable transformation in MIN's earnings profile.
  • The market's reaction, while intense, has not impaired the long-term value of the business.
  • Mineral Resources now represents the largest investment in the fund, comprising approximately 10% of the fund's assets.

Summary

Equity Trustees Asset Management

31 Dec 2024

$34.25

  • Equity Trustees Asset Management sold their investment in Mineral Resources (MIN) due to emerging governance issues that arose during the quarter.
  • The fund manager was previously unaware of these governance concerns.
  • Governance issues are taken seriously by Equity Trustees Asset Management.
  • The fund remains committed to reassessing their position once the governance issues are adequately addressed.

Summary

Katana Asset Management

31 Dec 2024

$34.25

  • Katana Asset Management continues to hold a significant position in Mineral Resources Limited (MIN), which was the fund’s largest weighting in 2024.
  • MIN experienced a challenging year, facing governance issues, declining commodity prices, and record debt.
  • Despite recent struggles, MIN has been one of the top performers in terms of total shareholder return (TSR) over nearly two decades.
  • The record debt is attributed to record growth, with the Onslow iron ore project set to be fully operational by mid-2025.
  • This project is expected to be the largest and most lucrative in the company’s history, generating substantial cash flows.
  • These cash flows are anticipated to delever the balance sheet and fund further growth and shareholder returns.
  • Katana Asset Management believes that at some point in 2025, the price of MIN will recover strongly as investors shift focus back to the company’s growth potential.

Summary

L1 Capital

31 Dec 2024

$34.25

  • L1 Capital continues to hold a position in Mineral Resources Ltd.
  • Shares declined primarily due to ongoing governance issues.
  • Company announced a leadership transition plan, seeking CEO succession over the next 12-18 months.
  • Further insights can be found in the October Monthly Report.
  • L1 Capital believes all core segments of Mineral Resources should see material improvement over the medium term.
  • The Onslow Iron Ore project is ramping up towards a positive cash flow contribution expected from mid-FY25.
  • The mining services business anticipates a positive step-change in volumes and earnings in the coming 18 months.
  • The lithium business has significant volume optionality to produce over 1,000kt of spodumene concentrate when market conditions improve.

Summary

L1 Capital

30 Nov 2024

$35.72

  • Mineral Resources (Long -15%) shares have declined due to ongoing governance issues.
  • The company is implementing a leadership transition plan for CEO succession over the next 12-18 months.
  • L1 Capital refers to the October Monthly Report for a more detailed perspective.
  • L1 Capital believes that each of Mineral Resources' core segments should see material improvement over the medium term.
  • The Onslow Iron Ore project is set to ramp up towards positive cash flow by mid-FY25.
  • The mining services business is expected to see a positive step-change in volumes and earnings in the next 18 months.
  • The lithium business has significant volume optionality to produce over 1,000kt of spodumene concentrate when market conditions improve.

Summary

Katana Asset Management

31 Oct 2024

$39.40

  • Katana Asset Management continues to hold its position in Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN).
  • MIN has received significant media attention recently, highlighting areas for improvement in corporate governance.
  • This media focus is viewed positively, as it may enhance the Board’s commitment to governance.
  • Amidst the media coverage, it is important to recognize the substantial value accretion achieved by the current management over the past two decades.
  • Recently, MIN showcased this value accretion through the sale of its gas assets for up to $1.1bn, which were developed from scratch by the company.
  • MIN has a strong track record of generating returns for shareholders, making it a notable player in the market.
  • Despite short-term challenges, Katana Asset Management remains focused on the long-term growth potential of MIN.

Summary

Blackwattle Investment Partners

31 Oct 2024

$39.40

  • Mineral Resources (MIN) faced governance breaches, including undisclosed related party transactions.
  • Concerns arose regarding founder Chris Ellison's personal tax matters.
  • While acknowledging Ellison’s business achievements, the allegations diminish their significance.
  • The board is at a crossroads due to Ellison's central role in the business.
  • Poor governance can lead to poor business culture, which is a major concern for long-term success.
  • Leadership instability amidst the Onslow project ramp-up added to the decision to exit.
  • Based on these factors, Blackwattle Investment Partners sold their position in Mineral Resources.

Summary

L1 Capital

31 Oct 2024

$39.40

  • L1 Capital notes a decline in Mineral Resources shares due to governance investigations and the Chairman's announcement to step down.
  • L1 Capital encourages a stronger corporate governance framework and accountability measures for the board.
  • Support is expressed for financial penalties imposed on the CEO for governance breaches.
  • L1 Capital believes retaining Chris Ellison as CEO is beneficial for shareholders, with improved governance in place.
  • Investment in Mineral Resources has been long-term, with L1 Capital major investors since 2017 and the largest shareholder post-Chris Ellison.
  • Following a recent sell-off, L1 Capital has increased its shareholding amid a substantial market cap drop from ~$10b to ~$7.5b.
  • Chris Ellison has successfully grown Mineral Resources from $150m market value in 2006 to a $10b leader prior to the recent dip.
  • Shareholders have experienced over 80-fold returns during Chris Ellison's tenure, demonstrating strong performance in Australian equities.
  • The recent sale of gas assets for $1.1b addresses balance sheet concerns and exceeds market expectations.
  • L1 Capital appreciates the company's optionality, particularly in iron ore volumes over time.
  • Upcoming developments in the Onslow Iron Ore project are projected to improve cash flow by mid-FY25.
  • Positive changes in the mining services business are expected in the next 18 months.
  • The lithium segment holds significant potential, aiming to produce over 1,000kt of spodumene concentrate as market conditions improve.

Summary

Lanyon Investment Fund

30 Sept 2024

$52.04

  • Lanyon Investment Fund has increased its position in Mineral Resources, now holding 9.1% of the fund.
  • The stock has been heavily short sold due to concerns over simultaneous downturns in iron ore and lithium prices.
  • This downturn coincides with a period of peak company gearing.
  • Lanyon anticipates a strong re-rating of the stock as management continues to execute their strategy.
  • The fund expects to see industry-leading returns from the current elevated capital spending phase.

Summary

L1 Capital

30 Sept 2024

$52.04

  • Mineral Resources shares rallied by +30% following Chinese stimulus measures.
  • Iron ore prices rebounded by +8% over the month.
  • The company completed the A$1.3b Onslow Haul Road sale, providing additional funding during elevated capital spending.
  • L1 Capital increased its position in Mineral Resources at ~$30/share, viewing the stock as materially oversold.
  • The shares closed the month at $52/share.
  • The company is approaching a favourable inflection point with the Onslow Iron Ore project ramping up towards positive cash flow by mid-FY25.
  • Mining services volumes are expected to materially increase over the next 18 months.
  • Mining services volumes should support EBITDA generation of ~$1b, underpinned by long-life contracts.
  • Despite volatility in the lithium market, Mineral Resources has optionality to produce over 1,000kt of spodumene concentrate when conditions improve.
  • L1 Capital believes that each of the company’s core segments will see material improvement over the medium term.

Summary

Airlie Funds Management

30 Sept 2024

$52.04

  • Airlie Funds Management notes a significant share price fluctuation for Mineral Resources, starting at $54.95 and dropping to $29 due to market reactions.
  • Key factors for the decline included a $1bn capex overrun at the Onslow iron ore project and worsening market fundamentals for iron ore and lithium.
  • Concerns regarding the balance sheet prevented Airlie Funds Management from increasing their position during the downturn.
  • Mineral Resources experienced a notable recovery driven by four positive developments:
    • $300m in identified cost savings ($180m capex and $120m opex).
    • Exploration of a potential sale of Perth Basin gas assets, accompanied by a maiden resource statement.
    • Finalization of the Onslow Haul Road sale to Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners, resulting in a $1.1bn payment.
    • A rebound in the iron ore price to US$100/t, spurred by Chinese stimulus measures.
  • Following these developments, Mineral Resources' share price rallied approximately 70% from its lows, closing the quarter around $51.
  • In response to the rally, Airlie Funds Management decided to trim their position to maintain a weighting of approximately 2%, balancing the execution risk of Onslow and the company’s stretched balance sheet.

Summary

Cooper Investors

30 Sept 2024

$52.04

  • Cooper Investors sold their investment in Mineral Resources (MIN) due to concerns about portfolio risk.
  • Increased caution regarding Mineral Resources' balance sheet was a significant factor.
  • Net debt/EBITDA ratio was approximately 4x on FY25 consensus estimates.
  • Heightened volatility in Lithium and Iron Ore prices influenced the decision.
  • Mineral Resources remains on the watchlist for potential future investment.
  • Cooper Investors would consider re-adding the stock if risk factors are rectified.

Summary

L1 Capital

31 Aug 2024

$39.51

  • Mineral Resources (Long -26%) shares have declined due to softness in key commodity markets, particularly with a 20% drop in lithium spodumene price.
  • The company reported an outlook for FY25 that includes lower lithium production volumes and continued elevated growth capital spending in both iron ore and mining services segments.
  • Mineral Resources is approaching a favorable inflection point with its Onslow Iron Ore project ramping up towards positive cash flow contribution expected from mid-FY25.
  • Mining services volumes are projected to materially increase in the next 18 months, supporting EBITDA generation of ~$1b.
  • The mining services are underpinned by long life contracts, providing strong earnings support for the business.
  • Despite volatility in the lithium market, Mineral Resources holds significant volume optionality to produce over 1,000kt of spodumene concentrate when conditions improve.
  • L1 Capital continues to believe that each of the company's core segments should see material improvement from current levels over the medium term.

Summary

Katana Asset Management

31 Aug 2024

$39.51

  • Katana Asset Management continues to hold its position in Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN) despite recent share price volatility.
  • The recent capitulation in share price has surprised many observers.
  • Focus remains on the long-term, fundamental outlook for Mineral Resources Ltd.
  • The long-term outlook is considered robust based on various metrics.
  • While lithium and iron ore prices may fluctuate, the company is developing world-class operations.
  • These operations are expected to generate enormous cash flow over time.

Summary

Blackwattle Investment Partners

31 Aug 2024

$39.51

  • Blackwattle Investment Partners continues to hold Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN) despite recent underperformance.
  • Recent capital expenditure guidance for FY25 was disappointing, with group expenditure reaching $1.9bn, which exceeded market expectations.
  • Total spend includes $0.6bn on stage 1 Onslow and ongoing waste stripping in lithium operations.
  • Investor concerns have emerged regarding the balance sheet due to a drop in iron ore prices to US $92/t and lithium prices sinking below production costs.
  • Blackwattle believes that while iron ore prices may drift lower, Onslow Iron will still yield good returns for shareholders.
  • According to Blackwattle's analysis, lithium prices are approaching bottom levels, potentially rising to US$1000/t -US$1200 SC6 in the long-term.
  • Chris Ellison highlights the current market condition stating that no lithium companies are currently generating profit.

Summary

Equity Trustees Asset Management

30 June 2024

$54.94

  • Equity Trustees Asset Management notes that Mineral Resources has been impacted by falling lithium prices.
  • The company is facing widening low-grade iron ore discounts.
  • Concerns arise over the stretched balance sheet, despite the sale of a 49% stake in the Onslow Iron haul road for A$1.3bn.
  • During this heavy capex period, the market is pricing in potential equity raising and risks of delaying projects.
  • Equity Trustees Asset Management believes that a startup of the Onslow project and any recovery in commodity prices could alleviate these concerns.

Summary

Blackwattle Investment Partners

30 June 2024

$54.94

  • Blackwattle Investment Partners notes that Mineral Resources (-24%) has detracted from performance due to weakening lithium markets.
  • Lithium mining accounts for 30%-50% of the company's valuation, contributing to concerns over high debt levels from the Onslow Iron Ore project.
  • The announcement of the sale of a 49% interest in the Onslow Iron Haul Road for $1.3bn aims to reduce debt and improve balance sheet capacity.
  • Proceeds will facilitate an increase in Onslow Iron Ore production from 35mt to 50mt over 2024-25.
  • Onslow Iron is a new major iron ore project, costing $3bn, with a projected C1 cost of A$45/t.
  • At stage 1 ramp-up, the project’s EBIT for Mineral Resources could reach $670m to $1.2bn based on iron ore prices of US$80/t to US$105/t.
  • Current lithium markets are oversupplied, following 2022 boom-time prices, indicating a need for market adjustment.
  • Research shows that Chinese lepidolite all-in cash costs are near US$10,200/t, affecting spodumene pricing.
  • Development of new projects like Pilbara Minerals (PLS)’s P2000 may not be viable at current prices, highlighting the challenge for new entrants.
  • Blackwattle Investment Partners emphasizes the importance of tier 1 assets that are low on the cost curve, including those managed by Mineral Resources and IGO Limited.

Summary

Endeavor Asset Management

30 June 2024

$54.94

  • Endeavor Asset Management notes a 25% decline in Mineral Resources' share price in June.
  • This decline was attributed to a drop in iron ore prices and negative sentiment towards lithium demand.
  • Increased supply from Africa has also impacted market sentiment.
  • Despite these challenges, Mineral Resources reported $1.3 billion from the sale of 49% of their Onslow Iron project asset.
  • The net proceeds of approximately $1.2 billion (after tax) are expected to be used to reduce debt.
  • Endeavor Asset Management continues to hold positions in Mineral Resources based on potential recovery in market conditions.

Summary

Airlie Funds Management

30 June 2024

$54.94

  • Airlie Funds Management notes that Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) has experienced a decline due to a sharper-than-expected lithium price correction.
  • The current price of spodumene is around US$1,000/t, leading to concerns that most lithium producers are cash flow negative.
  • This situation has negatively impacted investor sentiment towards the lithium sector, as seen with the performance of stocks like Liontown.
  • However, Airlie Funds Management believes that Mineral Resources is better positioned than its lithium peers due to its low-cost producing status.
  • The diversified nature of Mineral Resources' operations is a significant advantage.
  • It is estimated that iron ore and mining services will account for 78% of group earnings in FY25.
  • Airlie Funds Management anticipates that a combination of earnings growth and balance sheet deleveraging will lead to a re-rating of the share price over the next 12 months.

Summary

L1 Capital

30 June 2024

$54.94

  • Mineral Resources (Long -25%) shares declined due to softness in key commodity end markets, particularly lithium spodumene and iron ore prices down 16% and 7% respectively.
  • Negative market trends offset positive operational announcements, including early delivery of first ore from Onslow Iron project.
  • L1 Capital highlights the sale of a 49% interest in the Onslow haul road for A$1.3b, positioning the company well for future growth and shareholder returns.
  • Despite market volatility in lithium, Mineral Resources is on track to more than double production to exceed 1,000kt of spodumene concentrate over coming years.
  • L1 Capital continues to believe in the favourable medium-term tailwinds across all key business areas: iron ore, lithium, mining services, and gas.
  • The shares are considered significantly undervalued by L1 Capital.

Summary

QVG Capital

30 June 2024

$54.94

  • QVG Capital identifies Mineral Resources Ltd as a material detractor in their portfolio due to declining prices of iron ore and lithium concentrate.
  • Both commodities experienced a price drop of over 10% during the month, impacting the company's share price.
  • Extractive industries are typically avoided in QVG Capital's portfolio because of their volatile earnings, capital intensity, and lack of competitive advantage.
  • Mineral Resources is viewed as an exception due to its excellent track record in shrewd capital deployment and capital recycling.
  • There is potential for a ramp up of the Onslow iron ore project, which may improve earnings.
  • A modest rebound in lithium prices could position the business at a single digit multiple of its pre-tax earnings power.
  • QVG Capital continues to monitor the situation closely and reassess their investment thesis as market conditions evolve.

Summary

Endeavor Asset Management

31 Jan 2024

$59.95

  • Endeavor Asset Management notes that shares of Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN) detracted in January due to lower lithium prices driven by reduced EV demand.
  • Concerns arose regarding MIN's near-term cash flow and balance sheet stability.
  • These concerns were alleviated by the release of the December quarterly activities report.
  • The report indicated MIN's intention to sell a 49% stake in the Onslow Iron haul road, estimated to value between $700 million and $1.2 billion.
  • This potential sale could strengthen MIN's balance sheet.
  • Additionally, the Onslow Iron (Ashburton) project is progressing well and is expected to be completed within budget.
  • Endeavor Asset Management eagerly anticipates updates on the haul road sale and the initial ore from the Onslow project expected in June.

Summary

L1 Capital

31 Dec 2023

$70.62

  • Mineral Resources (Long +14%) shares have seen strong performance due to a 7% increase in iron ore prices in December, reaching a 2023 high.
  • This increase in iron ore prices counters ongoing weakness in lithium markets, which are adjusting from a supply deficit to a more balanced outlook.
  • L1 Capital highlights that the company’s exposure to iron ore is set to increase as progress on the Onslow Iron project continues.
  • The Onslow Iron project aims to transform Mineral Resources’ existing smaller-scale operations into a large, long-life, low-cost operation, with first production expected in June 2024.
  • In the lithium segment, the company is forecasted to more than double production to exceed 1,000kt of spodumene concentrate in the coming years.
  • L1 Capital believes that all key areas of Mineral Resources’ core business—iron ore, lithium, mining services, and gas—are supported by favorable medium-term tailwinds.
  • The shares of Mineral Resources are perceived to be undervalued in the current market.

Summary

L1 Capital

31 Oct 2023

$57.76

  • Mineral Resources shares declined ~15% as lithium prices fell ~23% over the month.
  • Lithium markets are adjusting from a significant supply deficit to a more balanced outlook in the short term.
  • First quarter production report indicated continued ramp-up of lithium assets.
  • Forecast to more than double lithium production to exceed 1,000kt of spodumene concentrate in the coming years.
  • Significant progress on the Onslow Iron project, noted during a recent site visit.
  • Onslow Iron project expected to transform the current iron ore business into a sizeable, long-life, low-cost operation.
  • First production from Onslow targeted for June 2024.
  • L1 Capital believes all key areas of Mineral Resources’ business have favourable medium-term tailwinds.
  • Shares of Mineral Resources are considered undervalued.

Summary

L1 Capital

30 June 2023

$71.43

  • Mineral Resources (Long -11%) shares declined due to weakness in the Chinese economy impacting iron ore prices.
  • The company delivered a market update indicating lower-than-previously-guided lithium production and higher costs.
  • Reported lower mining services volumes.
  • Expected to finalize joint venture agreement with Albemarle over jointly owned lithium assets.
  • The JV agreement will provide clarity for Mineral Resources’ lithium portfolio and support full downstream integration for >100kt of lithium hydroxide production.
  • Establishes a foundation for potential separate listing or sell-down of the lithium business.
  • L1 Capital continues to believe in the favorable medium-term tailwinds for all key areas of Mineral Resources’ core business.
  • Shares are regarded as undervalued compared to other similar companies.

Summary

L1 Capital

31 Dec 2022

$75.11

  • Mineral Resources (Long +17%) shares showed strong performance this quarter.
  • Lithium markets remain tight, driven by demand for electric vehicle batteries.
  • Iron ore pricing has recovered due to the re-opening of the Chinese economy.
  • The company is nearing finalization of a joint venture agreement with Albemarle regarding lithium assets.
  • This agreement will provide clarity to Mineral Resources’ lithium portfolio and support full downstream integration.
  • The expected production capacity is for over 100kt of lithium hydroxide.
  • This venture may lay the groundwork for a potential separate listing of the lithium business in the future.
  • L1 Capital continues to believe that Mineral Resources’ core business areas (iron ore, lithium, mining services) have favorable medium-term tailwinds.

Summary

L1 Capital

31 Oct 2022

$73.13

  • Mineral Resources (Long +11%) shares performed strongly over the quarter.
  • Lithium markets remain tight, driven by demand for electric vehicle batteries.
  • The company is expected to finalize its joint venture agreement with Albemarle over their lithium assets.
  • This agreement will provide clarity to Mineral Resources’ lithium portfolio.
  • Support for full downstream integration for >100kt of lithium hydroxide production.
  • Foundation for a possible separate listing of the lithium business in the future.
  • L1 Capital believes that all key areas of the business (iron ore, lithium, mining services) have favorable medium-term tailwinds.
  • There is significant optionality that is not fully reflected in the current share price.

Summary

L1 Capital

30 Sept 2022

$65.75

  • Mineral Resources shares rallied over the quarter supported by strong lithium prices.
  • Announcement of a potential separate listing of its lithium business has generated positive market sentiment.
  • Formal sanction of the Ashburton iron ore project, now called Onslow Iron, with production expected in late CY23.
  • Onslow Iron expected to deliver a step-change in earnings for the company.
  • Mineral Resources will have a controlling interest in a high-quality, long-life, low-cost asset with a mining services contract and infrastructure tolling.
  • Company focused on developing a massive growth pipeline for lithium hydroxide production (>100kt) over the next four years.
  • The lithium market remains very tight due to increasing battery demand for electric vehicles.
  • L1 Capital continues to believe that all key areas of the business (iron ore, lithium, and mining services) have favourable medium-term tailwinds.
  • The significant optionality in Mineral Resources’ business is not fully reflected in current market prices.

Summary

L1 Capital

31 Aug 2022

$63.97

  • Mineral Resources (Long +19%) shares have rallied, driven by strong lithium prices.
  • The formal sanctioning of the Ashburton iron ore project, now named Onslow Iron, is a significant milestone, with production anticipated in late CY23.
  • L1 Capital believes Onslow Iron will result in a step-change in earnings for the company.
  • The company will possess a controlling interest in a high-quality, long-life, low-cost asset, alongside mining services and infrastructure tolling.
  • From the lithium perspective, Mineral Resources is focused on a massive growth pipeline aiming for full downstream integration of over 100kt of lithium hydroxide production within four years.
  • The lithium market remains tight, bolstered by increasing battery demand for electric vehicles.
  • L1 Capital continues to believe all key segments of Mineral Resources’ business (iron ore, lithium, and mining services) possess favourable medium-term tailwinds.
  • There is significant optionality that is not fully reflected in current market prices.

Summary

L1 Capital

30 June 2022

$48.27

  • Mineral Resources shares have declined by ~8% due to a ~20% fall in iron ore prices.
  • Broader weakness in the junior miner space has impacted share performance.
  • Two bearish lithium reports from major investment banks have contributed to market sentiment.
  • L1 Capital believes that all key areas of Mineral Resources (iron ore, lithium, and mining services) have favourable medium-term tailwinds.
  • The long-life, low-cost Ashburton iron ore project is expected to receive formal sanction soon, with production anticipated in late CY23/early CY24.
  • The market has not fully priced in the impact of the Ashburton project on the mining services business and the potential of a new major iron ore region.
  • Mineral Resources is poised to realize its lithium growth pipeline with full downstream integration for >100kt of lithium hydroxide production over the next four years.
  • This growth will be supported by a recent US$1.25b bond issue and resilient lithium prices.
  • L1 Capital's positive outlook was reinforced by a visit to Mineral Resources' new company-owned Perth headquarters, showcasing management's commitment to providing an industry-leading experience.

Summary

Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed. 

Ella Walker, Equity Research Analyst

ANALYST INSIGHT

Equity Research Analyst

"In a turbulent market, the future for Mineral Resources appears bright—its strategic iron ore and lithium ventures could redefine growth. With strong tailwinds and an ambitious vision, it seems the market is yet to grasp the full potential of this mining powerhouse."

Last Updated: 03 Nov 2025

Query The Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is investing in Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX:MIN)?

Fund managers including L1 Capital, Endeavor Asset Management, Blackwattle Investment Partners, Oracle Advisory Group, Equity Trustees Asset Management, Katana Asset Management, Cooper Investors, Airlie Funds Management, QVG Capital, Antares Capital, Lanyon Investment Fund, PM Capital, Firetrail Investments and Pendal Group have invested in Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX:MIN).

Why do fund managers invest in Mineral Resources Ltd?

Fund managers invest in Mineral Resources Ltd due to its strong growth potential across key sectors: iron ore, lithium, and mining services. Despite recent share price declines influenced by falling iron ore prices and negative reports on lithium, the company is poised for significant advancements. The Ashburton iron ore project is expected to enhance production capabilities, while a robust lithium growth pipeline promises substantial output increases. Additionally, the recent successful bond issuance supports these initiatives, reinforcing confidence in the company's long-term viability and management's strategic vision.

What happened to Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX:MIN)?

Fund managers are investing in Mineral Resources Ltd due to a strong recovery in lithium and iron ore prices, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand, particularly from the EV sector. The company’s Onslow Iron Ore project has shown significant operational improvements, reaching nameplate capacity and generating substantial EBITDA, which aids in balance sheet de-leveraging. Additionally, recent governance enhancements with new board appointments have bolstered investor confidence. Overall, the combination of commodity price recovery, operational success, and strategic governance changes presents a compelling risk-reward scenario for investors.

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