Fund Manager Summary on Move Logistics Group Ltd (ASX:MOV)
In December 2025, Naos Asset Management commented that Move Logistics Group Ltd (ASX:MOV) showed a marked Q1 FY26 improvement, with normalised PBT loss narrowing by 68% year‑on‑year to circa NZD -1.3m, revenue down 3.5% and management reaffirming guidance to return to profitability in FY26. Across fund manager commentary from March, June and December 2025 the consensus is that MOV appears to have passed a turning point: March observed stronger-than-expected 1H FY25 trading with gross margin up ~29% to ~5.2%, a normalised EBT loss of ~$3.9m and sales momentum under a revamped team; June noted guidance for positive gross operating cash flow in FY25 and proximity to run-rate profitability; and December confirmed the Q1 improvement and maintained FY26 targets. Actionable insights include structural tailwinds from a gradual NZ economic recovery, industry consolidation reducing excess capacity and a shift toward service-led tenders that should favour a nation‑wide operator like MOV, while operational levers to drive profit include further margin improvement via utilisation and price increases, reduction of underutilised leased warehousing and onerous leases, delivery of the Accelerate Program and targeted incremental fixed‑cost savings (~NZD4m annualised). Key risks and strategic considerations are the still-uneven recovery in retail and construction end markets, pronounced seasonality (Q1 weakness), execution risk on lease rationalisation and cost initiatives, and the market’s current valuation (market capitalisation around NZD33m) which implies limited probability assigned to achieving a sustainable NPAT above NZD10m despite the company’s >NZD300m revenue base and management targets.
Commentary From The Managers
There are 7 insights from 1 fund managers regarding their investment in Move Logistics Group Ltd (ASX:MOV) available on Thesis Tracker.
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Updates are made available to members within 12 hours of being released. The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Naos Asset Management
31 Dec 2025
Unknown
Summary
- Naos Asset Management believes MOV’s recent operational improvement and reaffirmed FY26 profitability guidance justify continued ownership, and continues to hold because Q1 normalised PBT has materially improved, management is executing cost and lease remediation initiatives, and macro and sector dynamics should favour larger, service-focused logistics providers.
- Engagement: NAOS Investment Team travelled to New Zealand to attend MOV’s AGM and meet key members of the leadership team to validate strategy and execution.
- Q1 trading context: Q1 is typically MOV’s weakest quarter due to seasonality and the trading patterns of major customers in consumer discretionary and construction.
- Profit improvement: Normalised PBT improved markedly; the Q1 FY26 loss narrowed by 68% year‑on‑year (estimated Q1FY25 PBT loss ~NZD -4.0m vs estimated Q1FY26 loss ~NZD -1.3m).
- Revenue: Revenue was down 3.5% YOY, with management noting the economic environment has not yet shown meaningful improvement.
- Guidance: MOV has reaffirmed its guidance to return to profitability in FY26, which Naos views as achievable given seasonal strength and cost actions.
- Seasonal and operational tailwinds: Q2 and Q4 are historically the strongest quarters; the second half of FY26 should benefit from the full-year impact of cost‑saving and efficiency initiatives, particularly remediation of onerous leases.
- Macro drivers: The New Zealand economy is expected to recover from two years of negative growth, which should alleviate pressure on logistics demand and support volume recovery.
- Supply/demand rebalancing: Post‑COVID excess capacity (mainly new trucks) has been reduced as several smaller operators exited, improving the supply/demand imbalance and creating upside if demand recovers.
- Sector recovery potential: Construction and retail remain lagging but should improve as interest rates ease, restoring demand in logistics‑intensive sectors.
- Commercial leverage: As demand strengthens, tenders are likely to shift from price‑only competition to service quality and reliability, favoring larger, more sophisticated providers like MOV and enhancing pricing power and contract profitability.
- Valuation perspective: Even after a >35% share price rise, MOV’s market capitalisation is only ~NZD $33 million, which Naos interprets as the market assigning minimal probability to MOV generating a sustainable NPAT in excess of NZD $10 million on its >NZD $300 million revenue base over the next 12–24 months, implying meaningful upside if execution and demand improve.
Naos Asset Management
30 June 2025
$0.22
Summary
- Naos Asset Management sees potential for a turning point in Move Logistics Group Ltd (MOV) after two challenging years.
- Management has guided for positive gross operating cash flow in FY25.
- There is an expectation for a return to profitability in FY26.
- Based on 1H FY25 results, MOV appears close to achieving run-rate profitability.
- Despite a slower-than-expected economic recovery in New Zealand, achieving FY25 guidance would be significant.
- Post Q4 FY25, MOV reaffirmed its guidance, indicating a return to profitability.
- Early indications in FY26 suggest improved underlying health of the MOV business.
- Any uptick in economic activity could greatly benefit MOV.
Naos Asset Management
31 Mar 2025
Unknown
Summary
- Naos Asset Management views MOV's recent results as exceeding expectations after a challenging period with leadership changes.
- Despite a ~5% year-on-year revenue decline, MOV saw a ~6% revenue increase from 2HFY24 driven by a revamped sales team.
- Gross margin improved significantly, rising by ~14% year-on-year and reaching ~5.2%, indicating better sales margins.
- The company reported a normalized EBT loss of ~$3.9 million, an improvement from previous losses.
- Strong business momentum continues, with the strongest quarterly performance in 18 months.
- Guidance for profitability in FY26 was reaffirmed, necessitating run-rate profitability by May/June.
- Expected factors for profitability include:
- Further gross margin improvements from utilization benefits and price increases.
- Reduction in underutilized leased property in warehousing.
- Increased benefits from the 'Accelerate Program' in 2HFY25.
- Aiming for an additional $4 million annualized fixed cost reduction.
- Improvement in retail sector volumes expected to enhance MOV's profitability.
- MOV is demonstrating characteristics seen in previous high-performing investments, such as:
- Customer-first approach with high service levels.
- Value-based pricing strategy.
- Building an experienced and aligned team.
- Clear market offering that resonates with customers.
- Cost-efficient operations with minimal waste.
- With a NZD $300 million revenue base, even modest margin improvements can significantly benefit shareholders.
- Current market capitalization of $25 million NZD suggests minimal margin expectations, presenting potential for growth.
Naos Asset Management
31 Dec 2024
Unknown
Summary
- MOV held its AGM in late October amid a challenging economic backdrop.
- Naos Asset Management attended the AGM and engaged with MOV executives and directors.
- Interim CEO Paul Millward took over in September following the resignation of former CEO Craig Evans.
- MOV appointed new general managers for Freight and Fuels and Warehousing.
- At the AGM, MOV reaffirmed its commitment to returning to positive adjusted net operating cash flow by FY25.
- The business expects significant improvements in normalised EBIT, aiming for profitability by FY26.
- Current economic conditions are challenging, particularly affecting FMCG and building products.
- AGM comments highlighted a strong performance with dollar gross margin up compared to previous quarters.
- Potential EBIT improvement of >$11 million anticipated against last year's results.
- Naos Asset Management believes that the board and management are executing a strong strategy.
- Long-term potential for MOV to become a highly profitable logistics operator in New Zealand.
- Despite challenges, MOV retained large clients like the Warehouse Group and Z-Energy.
- Potential RBNZ interest rate cuts could create a more conducive environment for MOV's growth.
- Naos Asset Management expects MOV to improve operational efficiency through various rationalisations.
- Next 12 months are poised to be critical in MOV's >100-year history.
- With a market cap of ~$25 million, the potential for value creation remains significant.
Naos Asset Management
30 June 2024
Unknown
Summary
- Naos Asset Management notes the very poor share price performance of MOV over Q4, leading to a company update and trading update.
- MOV continues to expect that 2H24 Normalised EBITDA will be ahead of 1H24, indicating potential for improvement.
- The threshold for improvement is considered low, with 1H24 EBITDA at $13.2 million and a -$8.6 million EBIT loss.
- Any significant improvement in EBITDA, such as >$16 million in 2H24, would be viewed positively.
- MOV announced a strategy amendment for their Oceans division to scale and improve reliability by entering a time share agreement for a larger vessel.
- The focus on the FY24 result will include assessing the balance sheet position and 2H trading performance.
- Potential economic recovery in New Zealand could allow MOV to benefit from recent strategic efforts and improve margins.
- MOV has a unique network presence across NZ, catering for both FCL and LCL, which provides a significant competitive advantage.
- The company can move special large infrastructure-related items, enhancing its service offerings.
- CEO resignation in mid-July was unexpected; however, the executive team is believed capable of executing the strategy without him.
- Improvements made to date suggest MOV should be able to attract a high-caliber CEO in the future.
Naos Asset Management
31 Mar 2024
Unknown
Summary
- Naos Asset Management highlights the significant net loss after-tax in 1H FY24 due to reduced revenues and one-off costs.
- Despite the loss, the actual result surpassed previous guidance, indicating some progress.
- The implementation of Project Blueprint by new CEO Craig Evans is underway, expected to take 12-18 months.
- Transition to a capital light model is noted, which will allow MOV to repay debt over time.
- Projected improvements from 2H FY24 are anticipated, particularly with the new Transport Management System.
- Capacity of MOV’s network is believed to be 2-3 times the current revenue base, presenting profit potential.
- Lower cost base compared to larger peers like Toll NZ could provide a competitive edge.
- New board appointments are seen as beneficial for enhancing alignment with operational goals.
- Looking ahead, Naos believes MOV’s journey mirrors past investments, where initial positive results can lead to significant revaluation.
- Management’s short-term goal is to return to prior year’s profit levels swiftly, reflecting ambition amidst challenges.
Naos Asset Management
30 Sept 2023
Unknown
Summary
- Naos Asset Management is reassessing its investment thesis on Move Logistics Group Ltd (MOV) based on the recent financial year results.
- The performance of MOV was in line with expectations considering it is in a turnaround phase amid challenging macroeconomic conditions.
- Despite a decline in key financial metrics (revenue, EBIT, NPAT and free cash flow) compared to FY22, there are growth foundations being laid for future profitability.
- Team building continues at MOV with strategic appointments, notably Rachel Hustler as GM People & Culture and Ricky Clark as National Sales Manager, enhancing industry expertise.
- These new senior leaders are expected to drive cultural change and improve talent retention within the company.
- Naos is encouraged by MOV’s Project Blueprint strategy, aiming for both immediate and organic growth benefits within a 12-18 month timeline.
- The first part of the strategy includes margin improvement initiatives, such as fleet rationalisation, IT upgrades, and improved pricing structures.
- Key growth pillars in the strategy include enhancing less than truck load (LCL) offerings and developing a robust sales function.
- Naos sees potential in collaboration with other logistics firms to boost network utilisation and ocean offerings.
- Recent figures indicate a 1.50% EBITDA margin improvement in the freight division during the second half of FY23, hinting at possible financial recovery.
The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Move Logistics Group Ltd (ASX:MOV)?
Fund managers including Naos Asset Management have invested in Move Logistics Group Ltd (ASX:MOV).
Why do fund managers invest in Move Logistics Group Ltd?
Fund managers invest in Move Logistics Group Ltd due to its improving financial metrics and growth potential within a challenging economic environment. Following significant losses, the company showed a positive shift with improved gross margins and operational performance. The recent management guidance indicates expected return to profitability in FY26, supported by cost reductions and a strong sales strategy. With 70% of its revenue linked to the recovering retail sector, modest increases in volume could greatly enhance shareholder value, making it an attractive investment.
What happened to Move Logistics Group Ltd (ASX:MOV)?
There have been no recent updates from fund managers regarding Move Logistics Group Ltd although fund managers including Naos Asset Management have previously commented.
What is the short interest in Move Logistics Group Ltd (ASX:MOV)?
According to ASIC filings, there is negligible or no short interest in Move Logistics Group Ltd (ASX:MOV).
What does Move Logistics Group Ltd (ASX:MOV) do?
MOVe Logistics Group Ltd. engages in the transport and warehousing services. It operates through the following segments: International, Specialist, Freight and Fuel, Warehousing, and Corporate. The International segment focuses on international freight forwarding and shipping agency services across a broad range of industries. The Specialist segment provides transport and lifting solutions for oversized and large items. The Freight and Fuel segment is involved in nationwide general freight transport services with regional strength. The Warehousing segment refers to the warehouse and supply chain capability . The Corporate segment represents the corporate services function. The company was founded by John Franklyn Hooker in 1869 and is headquartered in New Plymouth, New Zealand.