Fund Manager Summary on Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG)
In January 2026, Auscap Asset Management commented that Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG) has become a formidable mortgage competitor, rapidly gaining market share via broker-focused origination, attractive at‑call deposit rates and a more efficient technology stack, supporting Banking & Financial Services margin expansion and operating leverage. Across fund managers the consensus is cautiously positive: MQG is viewed as a high‑quality, globally diversified franchise with structural tailwinds in energy transition, decarbonisation, private credit, infrastructure and digital infrastructure (evidenced by large MAM realisations such as Aligned at US$40bn and prior AirTrunk sales) that should generate material performance fees, while its Banking & Financial Services franchise is driving deposit and mortgage growth (deposits up nearly $40bn to $192.5bn and BFS contributing meaningfully to profit with PBT margins noted at 45.1%), but recent commentary stresses near‑term headwinds including subdued Commodities & Global Markets income, rising operating and transaction costs, asset impairments (~$152m pre‑tax green asset impairment noted), increased business capital requirements (~$1.8bn) with ~150bps ROE compression, executive succession and governance risks, and regulatory scrutiny that may limit dividend growth; actionable priorities for investors are to track MAM monetisation and performance‑fee timing, CGM trading volumes and cost control, evolving capital intensity and dividend guidance, and competitive/ regulatory responses to MQG’s mortgage expansion which will determine whether current structural advantages translate into sustained earnings and ROE improvement.
Commentary From The Managers
There are 21 insights from 11 fund managers regarding their investment in Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG) available on Thesis Tracker.
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Updates are made available to members within 12 hours of being released. The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Auscap Asset Management
18 Jan 2026
$210.81
Summary
- Auscap Asset Management believes Macquarie Group is a compelling long‑term opportunity and continues to hold because it is rapidly gaining mortgage market share through a low‑cost, tech‑enabled model that is driving earnings leverage and margin expansion.
- Mortgage market share momentum: Macquarie has been the only bank to consistently increase market share since 2018, contributing 21.6% of Australian mortgage growth in the 12 months to 30 Nov 2025 and growing its share from 5.7% to 6.7%.
- Broker channel focus: More than 95% of Macquarie home loans are originated via brokers; the bank wins on competitive rates and market‑leading turnaround times.
- Deposit franchise expansion: Rapid inflows (~$40bn in the last year) grew deposits to $192.5bn, supported by a simple at‑call savings offer (e.g. 4.25% on up to AUD $2m).
- Efficient operating model: A modern technology stack, focus on simpler owner‑occupier and lower LTV customers, and absence of a legacy branch network drive superior efficiency and lower costs.
- Margin and earnings leverage: Banking & Financial Services PBT margins reached 45.1% (6 months to Sept 2025, up from 41%), with meaningful operating leverage as the mortgage book scales.
- Competitive trajectory: If current new‑loan share persists, Macquarie could overtake ANZ and NAB in mortgage market share within a decade, highlighting the strategic threat to major banks.
- Valuation context: Despite stronger historic earnings growth and a 10‑year average ROE of ~13.8%, Macquarie currently trades on a lower one‑year forward P/E than three of the four major retail banks.
- Profit contribution: Banking & Financial Services represented 20.9% of Macquarie’s net profit in the most recent result and grew 22% year on year for the half.
- Risks and caveats: Macquarie’s business mix differs from the majors, some divisions face headwinds, and renewed competition could create earnings risk given elevated bank valuations and high retail exposure to the big banks.
- Investment discipline: We remain focused on high‑quality businesses bought at attractive prices that can deliver returns via dividends and earnings growth; Macquarie remains a high conviction holding within that framework.
Elston Asset Management
19 Dec 2025
$200.58
Summary
- Elston Asset Management continues to hold its position in Macquarie Group Ltd.
- The investment thesis is based on the belief that the company’s performance will improve over time.
- Current valuation at approximately 17x earnings indicates potential for significant upside.
- There is an intention to add to the holding as the outlook remains positive.
Infinity Asset Management
30 Nov 2025
$196.22
Summary
- Infinity Asset Management believes Macquarie remains a compelling overweight and continues to hold because its diversified earnings mix, strong momentum in Asset Management, BFS and Macquarie Capital, and supportive cyclical/performance fee drivers offset CGM headwinds while we monitor rising capital intensity
- Share reaction stock declined 8.6% following the 1H26 result
- 1H26 cash earnings $1,655m (+3% YoY) but ~11% below consensus due to higher costs, impairments and softer contribution from CGM
- Segment performance MAM +43% driven by performance fees (including AirTrunk and Aligned data centres), BFS +22% supported by home loan and deposit growth, and MacCap +92% aided by improved M&A activity
- CGM pressure profits down 15% as elevated operating and transaction costs weighed on earnings; includes ~$152m pre‑tax green asset impairment and guidance downgrade
- Capital and returns business capital requirements rose ~$1.8bn, driving ~150bps ROE compression; DPS missed consensus by ~9%; surplus capital fell ~$2bn (partly FX‑related)
- Guidance split upgraded for MAM, unchanged for BFS and MacCap, downgraded for CGM
- Outlook and risks cyclical activity and performance fees remain supportive but rising capital intensity and reinvestment in CGM raise questions over the quality and sustainability of 2H earnings, increasing reliance on a stronger second‑half skew
- Positioning note Infinity retains an overweight stance given diversified fee streams and franchise strength, with ongoing focus on CGM capital deployment and execution into 2H
Clime Investment Management
30 Nov 2025
$196.22
Summary
- Performance update: Macquarie (MQG.ASX) was a detractor in November, with shares falling ~10% following a weak 1H earnings result.
- Drivers of weakness: Ongoing softness in the Commodities & Global Markets division and some renewable energy asset impairments weighed on the result.
- Management guidance: Management said they are comfortable with analyst forecasts for a stronger second half, leaving full‑year estimates intact.
- Clime Investment Management view: Macquarie is a more mature business than in the past but still offers better value creation prospects than domestic banks due to its business model, global presence and high‑performing management culture.
- Investment decision: Clime Investment Management continues to hold because of Macquarie’s diversified model, global footprint, management quality and management’s reassurance on full‑year estimates.
- Key risks to monitor: Continued volatility in commodities and global markets, further renewable asset impairments and execution risk across global businesses.
- Non‑advice notice: This is an update from Clime Investment Management and is not financial advice.
Endeavor Asset Management
31 Oct 2025
$218.56
Summary
- Endeavor Asset Management has maintained a long-held position in MQG.
- Rising costs in commodities and green asset divisions are impacting MQG's outlook.
- Lower performance fees have also contributed to a softened outlook for MQG.
- ANZ is now seen as the preferred major bank exposure due to its clearer path to cost efficiency and revenue growth.
- Forecast EPS growth for ANZ is around 3% per annum, compared to 0–2% across peers.
- The timing of the investment was favorable, as MQG fell about 7% post-result.
- ANZ reached a record high in November.
Ten Cap
31 Oct 2025
$218.56
Summary
- Ten Cap has added Macquarie Group (MQG) to their portfolio.
- This decision was made to capitalize on recent share price weakness.
- Increased exposure to a high-quality, globally diversified financial services franchise.
- MQG is well-positioned to benefit from increasing global capital markets activity.
Hyperion Asset Management
31 Oct 2025
$218.56
Summary
- Hyperion Asset Management acknowledges MQG's recent announcement regarding the sale of Aligned Data Centers for an enterprise value of US$40 billion, marking a significant milestone as the largest data centre transaction globally.
- The transaction is anticipated to complete in the first half of 2026, following the successful sale of AirTrunk for US$16 billion last year.
- Under Macquarie Asset Management's ownership, Aligned expanded from two facilities with 85MW of capacity to 50 data centres with over 5GW of capacity.
- MAM's exposure to Aligned was through two funds: Macquarie Infrastructure Partners (MIP) IV and MIP V, with investments made in 2018 and 2020, respectively.
- Hyperion Asset Management continues to hold because MQG maintains substantial exposure to digital infrastructure assets, showcasing its capability to identify and invest in structural growth areas.
- The Aligned and AirTrunk transactions exemplify MQG's potential to generate material performance fees over time, reinforcing the fund manager's positive outlook on the company.
Endeavor Asset Management
30 Sept 2025
$219.33
Summary
- Endeavor Asset Management updates its investment thesis on Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG).
- First Home Buyer scheme introduced by the Australian government is expected to positively impact portfolio positions in NAB and Macquarie (MQG).
- The scheme supports loans at up to 95% LVR with a government guarantee above 80% LVR.
- Lenders can earn interest on the full loan while managing risk similar to an 80% LVR exposure.
- The guaranteed portion is backed by the AAA rated Commonwealth, leading to lower risk weighted assets.
- This reduction in risk weighted assets enhances regulatory capital efficiency and improves metrics such as ROE.
Auscap Asset Management
24 Sept 2025
$218.43
Summary
- Macquarie Group (MQG) delivered weaker-than-expected earnings.
- The market reaction was fairly negative following the earnings report.
- The commodities trading division normalized more sharply than anticipated, impacting profits.
- Asset Management experienced lower performance fees.
- Banking & Financial Services faced higher costs.
- Despite the softer results, Macquarie remains a high-quality, diversified financial services group.
- The company acknowledged that FY25 earnings may be lower than FY24.
- Auscap Asset Management continues to hold its position but recognizes that earnings momentum is currently subdued.
Airlie Funds Management
1 Aug 2025
$213.78
Summary
- Airlie Funds Management continues to hold Macquarie Group Ltd in their portfolio.
- Current market conditions indicate a lull for Macquarie, alongside some regulatory pressure.
- These challenges are expected to pass over time.
- The breadth of Macquarie's business and its global presence are seen as attractive.
- Airlie believes Macquarie will resume growth in the near future.
- Compared to Westpac, Macquarie's valuation at 19 times PE is considered favorable.
- In a three to five-year outlook, Macquarie Group is expected to outperform Westpac.
Clime Investment Management
31 July 2025
$217.38
Summary
- Clime Investment Management continues to hold Macquarie Group (MQG.ASX) as a core position in the portfolio.
- Macquarie is viewed as preferred stock within the diversified financials sector.
- The company has a strong suite of businesses positioned for earnings growth in the future.
- In July, MQG's performance was impacted by a softer than expected operating update.
- This was primarily due to lower trading activity in its Commodities and Global Markets division.
- Banking and Macquarie Capital showed better performance, but the outlook remains cautious.
- The cautious outlook is influenced by mixed divisional performance and recent key management changes.
Endeavor Asset Management
31 July 2025
$217.38
Summary
- Macquarie Group (MQG) experienced a 5.0% decline in July due to a soft start to the financial year.
- The commodities division's income reported a decrease, impacting overall performance.
- The asset management division faced challenges due to the timing of transactions.
- Resignation of Alex Harvey (CFO), effective mid-2026, has contributed to share price pressure.
- Concerns regarding future CEO succession planning are also weighing on investor sentiment.
- The board is at risk of receiving their first strike on the remuneration report at the AGM.
- This follows a period of regulatory issues and the necessity to increase capital, which may limit future dividend growth.
- Endeavor Asset Management has reduced the size of its investment in MQG during July but continues to prefer it as a long-term banks' exposure.
Tyndall Asset Management
31 July 2025
$217.38
Summary
- Macquarie Group (MQG) has underperformed recently due to a relatively weak quarterly result.
- The announcement of the retirement of its well-regarded CFO has raised concerns.
- Tyndall Asset Management continues to admire Macquarie Group as a high performing franchise.
- Despite this admiration, Tyndall Asset Management remains underweight the stock on valuation grounds.
Endeavor Asset Management
30 June 2025
$228.73
Summary
- Endeavor Asset Management continues to hold Macquarie Group (MQG) as a core holding in the Balanced Portfolio.
- MQG's share price increased by 6.8% in June.
- The business is expected to benefit from escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran.
- This conflict has driven a rise in oil prices and increased volatility in energy markets.
- Heightened volatility is projected to lead to higher revenue for MQG’s Commodities and Global Markets (CGM) segment.
- Forecasted revenue growth for CGM is 5-6% year-over-year for FY26.
- This growth is expected to contribute approximately 2% of EPS growth to the bottom line.
Clime Investment Management
30 June 2025
$228.73
Summary
- Clime Investment Management notes a positive contribution from MQG to the portfolios in June.
- This was driven by ongoing support for risk assets following Trump's tariff 2.0 liberation day.
- Clime Investment Management maintains the view that MQG is well-positioned across market cycles.
- The company benefits from a diversified earnings base.
- MQG also has a strong capital position.
Antares Capital
30 June 2025
$228.73
Summary
- Antares Capital initiated a position in Macquarie Group (MQG) following a significant market sell-off in April 2025.
- The sell-off was triggered by US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement.
- MQG's earnings, being sensitive to financial market conditions, were unduly punished, creating an attractive entry point.
- Antares Capital views MQG as a high-quality business with a robust franchise.
- The management team has demonstrated resilience through various volatile periods.
- MQG is strategically positioned to capitalize on long-term global mega-trends such as energy transition and decarbonisation.
- Additional growth opportunities include private credit, infrastructure investment, and alternative asset growth.
Endeavor Asset Management
31 May 2025
$212.12
Summary
- Endeavor Asset Management notes that Macquarie Bank's (MQG) FY25 result was in line with consensus.
- The asset management division demonstrated strong performance fees and asset realisations.
- Equally, the banking division showed strength in its loan portfolio and deposit base.
- There is an expectation that both divisions will carry their positive momentum into FY26.
Clime Investment Management
31 May 2025
$212.12
Summary
- Macquarie Group (MQG) showed strong relative performance this month.
- Supported by a solid FY25 profit result announcement.
- Ongoing solid growth from its Banking & Financial Services division.
- Strong contribution from the Asset Management segment.
- Earnings from Commodities and Global Markets remained subdued.
- Management remains positive about the long-term growth outlook through new clients and services.
- Clime Investment Management retains confidence in MQG's ability to navigate shifting market conditions.
- Expecting to generate mid-teens return-on-equity over time.
Ten Cap
31 Jan 2025
$240.80
Summary
- Increased exposure to Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG) over the month
- Driven by an attractive CY25 financial outlook
- Deregulation is contributing to positive expectations
- Improving sentiment among investors, referred to as ‘animal spirits’
- Positive commentary surrounding transaction forecasts
- Underpins a strong earnings and shareholder return outlook
Endeavor Asset Management
30 June 2024
$203.16
Summary
- Macquarie's share price increased by 7% in June due to unexpected broker EPS upgrades.
- Endeavor Asset Management continues to hold MQG as they believe it can benefit during elevated energy market volatility.
- Current volatility is influenced by recent events, including potential developments from Hurricane Beryl.
Cooper Investors
31 Mar 2023
$175.66
Summary
- Cooper Investors attended Macquarie’s (MQG) three-day investor tour in the US.
- Investors were able to further explore key themes through various presentations and asset tours.
- Exposure to key divisional personnel was crucial in understanding the opportunity set.
- Cooper Investors was impressed with the insights gained during the tour.
- This experience enhanced comfort in the investment thesis, which supports backing expert value creators.
- Macquarie demonstrates an outstanding track-record and leadership in attractive industries.
- Furthermore, Macquarie exhibits a deep culture and capability that reinforces investment confidence.
The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG)?
Fund managers including Cooper Investors, Endeavor Asset Management, Ten Cap, Antares Capital, Airlie Funds Management, Clime Investment Management, Tyndall Asset Management, Auscap Asset Management, Hyperion Asset Management, Elston Asset Management and Infinity Asset Management have invested in Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG).
Why do fund managers invest in Macquarie Group Ltd?
Fund managers invest in Macquarie Group Ltd due to its diversified earnings and growth prospects, particularly in sectors like energy transition and private credit. Strong financial performance, especially in asset management and banking, supports positive earnings outlooks. Macquarie's positioning in global capital markets and infrastructure investment also appeals to investors. The company is viewed as resilient, with consistent shareholder returns and a historical ability to navigate market volatility effectively, balancing risk and reward.
What happened to Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG)?
Fund managers are investing in Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG) due to its position as a high-quality, diversified financial services entity with potential benefits from government-backed loan schemes. Recent large-scale transactions in digital infrastructure, like the sale of Aligned Data Centers for US$40 billion, highlight Macquarie's capability for significant growth in critical sectors. Despite recent earnings challenges, particularly in commodities and asset management, the firm is viewed as well-positioned for future capital market opportunities, with expectations of performance fee generation as investments mature.
What is the short interest in Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG)?
The short interest in Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG) is 0.46% which makes it the 289th most shorted stock on the ASX. Of the 381.1M shares that Macquarie Group Ltd has on issue, 1.7M have been sold short.
What does Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG) do?
Macquarie Group Ltd. operates as a non-operating holding company. The firm engages in the provision of banking, financial, advisory, investment and funds management services. It operates through the following segments: Macquarie Asset Management (MAM), Banking and Financial Services (BFS), Commodities and Global Markets (CGM), Macquarie Capital and Corporate. The MAM segment delivers investment solutions to clients across a range of capabilities, including infrastructure, real estate, agriculture, equities, fixed income, private credit, liquid alternatives, and multi-asset solutions. The BFS segment offers personal banking, wealth management, business banking, and vehicle finance products and services to retail clients, advisers, brokers and business clients. The CGM segment comprises of integrated, end-to-end offering across global markets including equities, fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities. The Macquarie Capital segment includes capital solutions across products and sectors including infrastructure, green and conventional energy. The Corporate segment refers to the head office and central service groups, including group treasury and other investments. The company was founded on December 10, 1969 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.