Fund Manager Summary on Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX:NEC)
In March 2026, Pendal Group commented that Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX:NEC) reported a 1H26 result slightly ahead on EBITDA largely due to timing effects, showed meaningful underlying revenue and EBITDA declines versus 1H24, is executing cost reductions with $32m already delivered and $70m remaining, and that the QMS acquisition together with realised tax benefits are accretive and leave NEC trading at about 10x PE. Across fund manager commentary, the consensus view is that NEC is navigating a difficult advertising cycle and structural headwinds in legacy media but has made strategic progress via portfolio reshaping and balance-sheet actions: the sale of Domain (realising material capital returns and tax shields), disposals of radio/NBN and the $850m QMS outdoor-media acquisition (net outlay ~$780m, implied ~6.8x EBITDA pre-synergy) shift the group toward growth assets—streaming, digital publishing, marketplaces and outdoor—projected to comprise the majority of revenue and EBITDA, while STAN continues to deliver above-market streaming earnings growth. Key opportunities are the company’s content and data capabilities, expanding non-advertising revenue streams and the accretive nature of the QMS deal and tax realisations; principal risks are ongoing weak advertising demand, legacy asset revenue declines, execution risk on cost outs and M&A synergies, and a temporarily higher leverage profile that requires monitoring. Strategically, investors and managers are focused on the timing of advertising recovery, delivery of the remaining cost savings, successful integration and synergy delivery from QMS, preservation of balance-sheet flexibility while managing dividend policy, and reassessment of earnings baselines as one-off distortions (Olympics, election cycling) normalise.
Commentary From The Managers
There are 7 insights from 4 fund managers regarding their investment in Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX:NEC) available on Thesis Tracker.
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Updates are made available to members within 12 hours of being released. The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Pendal Group
2 Mar 2026
$1.03
Summary
- Pendal Group believes NEC is on a credible recovery path and continues to hold because 1H26 outperformance, ongoing cost reductions and STAN momentum support upside
- 1H26 EBITDA +5% vs expectations, although much of this reflects timing of costs rather than structural improvement
- Results were distorted versus the prior corresponding period by the Olympics; TV EBITDA ended flat vs the PCP, creating a cleaner baseline going forward
- Compared with 1H24, revenues are down $100m and EBITDA down $60m (≈40%), highlighting the scale of the reset already taken
- Cost management is progressing: $32m removed in the half with around $70m still to go to hit the FY27 cost-out target
- STAN is the standout: EBITDA grew 24% driven by revenue uplift from pricing and flat entertainment costs
- The 3Q26 trading update was positive: Total TV expected to be flat against a very strong PCP that grew high single digits versus the rest of the prior year, which was down low double digits
- Trading into 4Q will be volatile as NEC cycles election spend in April and the May/June tariff-scare impact, which were heavily negative in the prior year
- Consensus earnings revisions are +4%, leaving NEC trading at about 10x PE when the QMS media deal is included
Pendal Group
2 Feb 2026
$1.22
Summary
- Pendal Group believes NEC's post-Domain transactions materially improve capital flexibility and the tax position, and continues to hold because the moves increase exposure to growth assets, are expected to be accretive to earnings and deliver substantial cash tax benefits.
- Pendal Group notes the sale of radio and NBN television generates $178 million of new tax credits and that realised tax losses will largely offset payable tax, making the overall tax outcome materially positive.
- Pendal Group highlights the acquisition of QMS Media for $850 million, with a reported net outlay of $780 million (before cash tax benefits) and an implied multiple after cost synergies of ~6.8x EBITDA.
- Pendal Group observes that growth assets (streaming, digital publishing, marketplaces, outdoor) are now projected to contribute over 60% of group revenue and ~70% of EBITDA, and that QMS is expected to be low double‑digit percentage accretive for FY26 on a pro‑forma basis.
- Pendal Group acknowledges much of the EPS accretion stems from balance‑sheet re‑gearing, while QMS provides increased exposure to an asset‑based media business at a reasonable acquisition multiple, offering operational upside beyond gearing.
- Pendal Group considers the combination of realised tax benefits, disciplined use of balance sheet capacity and an accretive, strategically aligned acquisition to be a constructive outcome for NEC's transition to a growth‑led portfolio.
Maple-Brown Abbott
30 Sept 2025
$1.21
Summary
- Maple-Brown Abbott believes Nine Entertainment offers a portfolio of high-quality, diversified media assets and continues to hold because its asset mix, digital progress and balance sheet position support long-term value creation as advertising recovers.
- Leading multi‑platform assets: free‑to‑air television, broadcast VOD, streaming SVOD/AVOD, newspapers and radio provide broad audience reach and monetisation flexibility.
- Content leverage: high‑quality content can be repurposed across print, audio and vision to maximise engagement and revenue.
- Digital and data capability: sustained investment in digital products and data analytics to grow non‑advertising revenue and improve earnings quality.
- Portfolio simplification and shareholder returns: sale of the online real‑estate business delivered attractive proceeds and enabled a material return of capital to shareholders.
- Prudent balance sheet: an under‑geared financial position provides resilience through cyclical advertising downturns and optionality for future investment.
- Cycle exposure with long‑term upside: current advertising headwinds are expected to be temporary; the combination of assets, digital growth and balance sheet strength should reward patient shareholders as the advertising cycle improves.
BKI Investment Company
30 June 2025
$1.63
Summary
- BKI Investment Company sold its position in Nine Entertainment Holdings (NEC-ASX) due to another underwhelming result.
- The dividend was cut, indicating financial strain.
- NEC’s debt position is growing, raising concerns about financial stability.
- The company is facing a tough advertising market, impacting revenue.
- There are structural issues within NEC’s core business, complicating recovery.
Maple-Brown Abbott
31 Mar 2025
$1.51
Summary
- Maple-Brown Abbott's holding in Nine Entertainment Co. contributed positively with a +25% performance.
- A key driver was a takeover offer for Domain Holdings Australia, where Nine holds a 60% stake.
- The initial offer price of $4.20 per share was increased to $4.43, reflecting a 42% premium to the prior closing price.
- This values Nine’s stake at $1.7bn.
- The Domain board has indicated support for the offer, and CoStar has been granted exclusive due diligence.
- Nine reported a better-than-expected half-year result in February, showing signs of cyclical improvement in the advertising market.
- The portfolio includes a smaller position in Domain Holdings Australia, which increased by 70% and was also a top contributor.
Yarra Capital Management
28 Feb 2025
$1.63
Summary
- Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (NEC, overweight) has shown strong performance during the review period.
- Key driver includes CoStar's A$2.65 billion acquisition bid for Domain Holdings, representing a 35% premium for a company 60% owned by NEC.
- NEC, along with Seven West Media (SWM), provided an optimistic outlook for 3Q25 advertising, indicating potential improvement in the advertising market.
- Yarra Capital Management continues to hold NEC as it is well-positioned to leverage high fixed cost leverage when market conditions improve.
Yarra Capital Management
31 Aug 2024
$1.34
Summary
- Yarra Capital Management holds an underweight position in REA Group (REA), Australia’s leading online residential real estate platform.
- Indirect exposure to the online real estate sector is gained via Domain Holdings (DHG), which is part of Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (NEC).
- Nine Entertainment owns 60% of Domain Holdings (DHG).
The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX:NEC)?
Fund managers including Maple-Brown Abbott, Yarra Capital Management, BKI Investment Company and Pendal Group have invested in Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX:NEC).
Why do fund managers invest in Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd?
Fund managers invest in Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd primarily due to its significant stake in Domain Holdings, which has attracted a high acquisition bid from CoStar, enhancing its valuation. Additionally, recent reports indicate a potential turnaround in the advertising market, which could improve Nine's operational performance. However, investors also consider risks related to growing debt and recent dividend cuts, impacting the risk/reward profile of the investment.
What happened to Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX:NEC)?
There have been no recent updates from fund managers regarding Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd although fund managers including Maple-Brown Abbott, Yarra Capital Management and BKI Investment Company have previously commented.
What is the short interest in Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX:NEC)?
The short interest in Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX:NEC) is 1.65% which makes it the 157th most shorted stock on the ASX. Of the 1.6B shares that Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd has on issue, 26.1M have been sold short.
What does Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX:NEC) do?
Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Ltd. operates as a media and entertainment company. It operates through the following segments: Broadcasting, Publishing, Domain Group, and Stan. The Broadcasting segment includes free to air television activities and metropolitan radio networks in Australia. The Publishing segment includes other and metropolitan media. The Domain Group segment engages in real estate media and service businesses. The Stan segment provides subscription video on demand services. The company was founded on October 16, 2006 and is headquartered in North Sydney, Australia.