Fund Manager Summary
The fund managers believe that the outlook for Northern Star Resources Ltd is promising, driven by a favorable gold price increase of 5.4% and the strategic acquisition of De Grey Mining. In their opinion, the Hemi project is a key growth driver that will enhance production capabilities. They assert that Northern Star possesses the most robust organic production growth profile in the gold sector, supported by operational excellence and effective cost control. The fund managers are particularly attracted to the company’s high asset quality and a solid organic growth pipeline, projecting an increase in production from approximately 1.5Mozpa to 2Mozpa by 2026. This combination reinforces their overweight position in the stock.
Source: Trading View
Commentary From The Managers
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Pendal Group
27 Oct 2025
$24.07
Summary
- Pendal Group continues to hold Northern Star Resources (NST) following an in-line Q2 result.
- Production met expectations, reinforcing stability in operations.
- Cost performance was a highlight, coming in 8% below expectations.
- Free cash flow remains limited due to existing hedging strategies.
- NST continues to screen attractively based on spot gold prices.
- The key KCGM expansion project is on track for commissioning early FY27.
- This project is expected to deliver a step change in production and free cash flow.
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Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Pendal Group
27 Oct 2025
$24.07
- Pendal Group continues to hold Northern Star Resources (NST) following an in-line Q2 result.
- Production met expectations, reinforcing stability in operations.
- Cost performance was a highlight, coming in 8% below expectations.
- Free cash flow remains limited due to existing hedging strategies.
- NST continues to screen attractively based on spot gold prices.
- The key KCGM expansion project is on track for commissioning early FY27.
- This project is expected to deliver a step change in production and free cash flow.
Summary
Yarra Capital Management
30 Sept 2025
$23.73
- Northern Star Resources (NST) is currently rated as overweight by Yarra Capital Management.
- The company outperformed due to a record financial result and strong gold prices, which increased by 17% during the quarter.
- Northern Star reported revenue of A$6.4 billion and more than doubled its net profit to A$1.3 billion.
- The dividend was increased to 30 cents a share.
- Yarra Capital Management believes Northern Star has the most robust organic production growth profile in the gold sector.
- Operational excellence combined with strong organic growth supports Yarra Capital Management's overweight position.
Summary
Ten Cap
30 Sept 2025
$23.73
- Ten Cap rotated gold exposure from Newmont (NEM) into Northern Star (NST) to capture relative value and positioning.
- Despite recent production downgrades at NST, Ten Cap views these as temporary, expecting operational performance to normalize.
- Northern Star (NST) is Ten Cap's preferred large-cap gold producer, showing a rebound this month due to strength in the underlying commodity.
- The recovery followed a production downgrade in July, which Ten Cap used as an entry point.
- Ten Cap sees upside potential in NST, supported by its compelling growth profile and attractive valuation compared to peers.
Summary
Pendal Group
30 Sept 2025
$23.73
- Pendal Group updates its investment thesis on Northern Star Resources Ltd.
- Northern Star has seen strong gains due to a surge in gold prices, driven by a weaker US dollar.
- The portfolio primarily holds Evolution Mining as its main gold exposure, which has offset the impact of not owning NST.
- Evolution Mining is generating strong free cash flow, using it to reduce gearing and strengthen its balance sheet.
- Evolution Mining's free cash flow yield is higher than that of Northern Star.
- However, Northern Star has a better outlook for production growth.
- Northern Star's production guidance for FY27-29 has exceeded expectations, contributing to its recent rebound.
- The mill expansion at its KCGM asset is on track, increasing capacity from 13Mtpa to 27Mtpa.
- This expansion is expected to complete by the end of FY26 or early FY27.
- Northern Star's FY25 adjusted earnings surpassed consensus expectations.
- A stronger gold price has positively influenced Northern Star's stock performance during the month.
Summary
Antares Capital
30 Sept 2025
$23.73
- Strong rally driven by surging gold prices.
- Relief rally following site visits to Western Australian operations.
- Market sentiment improved regarding cost and capex outlook.
- Antares Capital continues to hold due to positive developments in operations.
Summary
Infinity Asset Management
30 Sept 2025
$23.73
- Northern Star Resources (NST) continues to be an overweight position for Infinity Asset Management.
- The stock rallied 27.5% in September, driven by a ~12% rally in spot gold.
- NST delivered a solid FY25 result in August, aligning with expectations from prior operational updates.
- Positive indicators included better than expected underlying EBITDA, free cash flow, and fully franked dividends.
- No changes were made to production or cost guidance, maintaining stability in outlook.
- While FY26 is viewed as a transition year with increased capex, Infinity Asset Management maintains a positive long-term view.
- This transition is expected to unlock higher levels of production in future years.
Summary
Tyndall Asset Management
31 Aug 2025
$20.10
- Tyndall Asset Management maintains an overweight position in Northern Star (NST), which has positively impacted performance in August.
- Market concerns were raised regarding potential multi-year downgrades to production and increased costs/capex during the Superpit site visit in early Aug-25.
- Contrary to market fears, NST demonstrated confidence in the successful delivery of the mill expansion.
Summary
Yarra Capital Management
31 Aug 2025
$20.10
- Northern Star Resources (NST, overweight) – strong performance driven by record financial results and rising gold prices (+4.3%).
- Reported revenue of $6.4 billion and net profit more than doubled to $1.3 billion.
- Dividend increased to 30 cents per share.
- Yarra Capital Management believes NST has the most robust organic production growth profile in the gold sector.
- Operational excellence and strong organic growth support Yarra's overweight position.
Summary
Infinity Asset Management
31 Aug 2025
$20.10
- Northern Star Resources (NST) remains a focus for Infinity Asset Management.
- Infinity Asset Management is overweight on NST, reflecting confidence in its performance.
- NST rallied 21.3% in August, driven by a ~5% increase in spot gold prices.
- The company delivered a solid FY25 result as anticipated, supported by recent operational updates.
- Positive indicators included better than expected underlying EBITDA, free cash flow, and dividends returning to fully franked status.
- No changes were made to production or cost guidance, indicating stability.
- FY26 is viewed as a “transition year” with increased capex requirements.
- Despite this, Infinity Asset Management maintains a positive long-term outlook, believing it will enable higher production levels in subsequent years.
Summary
Clime Investment Management
31 Aug 2025
$20.10
- Clime Investment Management reintroduced NST.ASX into the portfolio after a temporary sell-off.
- The sell-off was triggered by a slight decrease in FY26 guidance.
- Clime Investment Management remains bullish on precious metals.
- Strong thematic and structural demand from global central banks and investors supports this outlook.
- Continued weakening of the USD is a significant factor in the investment thesis.
Summary
Yarra Capital Management
31 July 2025
$15.57
- Northern Star Resources (NST) is currently rated as overweight by Yarra Capital Management.
- The company underperformed following weaker-than-expected FY26 production and cost guidance.
- Yarra Capital Management believes that communication regarding the update could have been more effective.
- Despite the recent challenges, Yarra Capital Management maintains a constructive outlook on Northern Star’s operations.
- The fund manager identifies Northern Star as having the most robust organic production growth profile in the gold sector.
- Operational excellence and strong organic growth are key factors supporting Yarra Capital Management's overweight position.
Summary
Tyndall Asset Management
31 July 2025
$15.57
- Northern Star (NST) significantly underperformed in July due to FY26 projections falling short of market expectations.
- Concerns include slightly reduced volumes and elevated production costs alongside growth capex.
- Despite these short-term challenges, Tyndall Asset Management sees substantial value and upside in NST.
- Key factors contributing to this outlook include:
- Underground development ramping up.
- KCGM's reconfirmed target of 900,000 ounces annually by FY29.
- The unwinding of their hedgebook policy, increasing exposure to the spot gold price.
- Potential announcement of Hemi FID next year.
Summary
Pendal Group
30 June 2025
$18.55
- Pendal Group maintains an overweight position in Northern Star Resources (NST).
- Northern Star underperformed in June, alongside Evolution, another major gold miner.
- Recent sell-side rating changes followed strong sector performance.
- Pendal Group views NST as attractive within the gold sector.
- The company downgraded production and raised cost guidance for FY26, which, despite being more negative than anticipated, has alleviated uncertainty.
- NST continues to demonstrate the best growth profile among larger Australian gold miners.
Summary
Alliance Bernstein
30 June 2025
$18.55
- Northern Star Resources Ltd. faced challenges as management lowered 2026 production guidance and indicated a higher cost outlook.
- Alliance Bernstein maintains a constructive view on the gold sector.
- Ongoing central bank purchases are expected to support gold prices.
- Safe haven demand, particularly due to uncertainty around US tariffs, is anticipated to bolster gold prices.
Summary
Yarra Capital Management
31 May 2025
$20.88
- Northern Star Resources (NST) is currently rated as overweight by Yarra Capital Management.
- Recent performance is linked to a +5.4% increase in gold prices.
- The acquisition of De Grey Mining (DEG) has positive implications for Northern Star.
- The Hemi project is seen as accretive to production and a significant growth driver.
- Northern Star is believed to have the most robust organic production growth profile in the gold sector.
- Operational excellence and strong organic growth support Yarra's overweight position.
- Yarra Capital Management is attracted to the company’s asset quality, effective cost control, and strong organic growth pipeline.
- Production is expected to grow from approximately 1.5Mozpa to 2Mozpa by 2026.
Summary
Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
ANALYST INSIGHT
Equity Research Analyst
"With gold prices climbing and strategic acquisitions in play, it seems Northern Star Resources could be on the brink of a transformative growth phase, potentially elevating its production profile significantly by 2026. This might just be the gold player to watch."
Last Updated: 27 Oct 2025
Query The Data
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST)?
Fund managers including Yarra Capital Management, Pendal Group, Alliance Bernstein, Infinity Asset Management, Tyndall Asset Management, Clime Investment Management, Antares Capital and Ten Cap have invested in Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST).
Why do fund managers invest in Northern Star Resources Ltd?
Fund managers are investing in Northern Star Resources Ltd due to its strong performance driven by rising gold prices and the strategic acquisition of De Grey Mining. The Hemi project is expected to significantly boost production, reinforcing Northern Star's position as a leader in organic growth within the gold sector. Their operational excellence, high-quality assets, and effective cost management further support a positive outlook, with production projected to increase from approximately 1.5 million ounces per annum to 2 million ounces by 2026.
What happened to Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST)?
Fund managers are investing in Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) due to its robust operational performance and strong growth potential in the gold sector. Despite recent production downgrades and elevated costs, the company has demonstrated solid financial results, including increased revenue and a doubled net profit, alongside a favorable gold price environment. The ongoing expansion of its KCGM asset and strategic initiatives to enhance production capacity further bolster confidence in NST's long-term value. Overall, fund managers maintain a positive outlook, citing operational excellence and significant organic growth as key drivers for their overweight positions.