Fund Manager Summary
The fund managers believe that the outlook for Origin Energy Ltd is promising, particularly following a recent takeover offer at $9.00 per share from a consortium led by Brookfield Asset Management and MidOcean Energy. In their opinion, this offer, which represents a 55% premium to the share price prior to the proposal, highlights the upside potential seen in the company. However, they also acknowledge that risks remain regarding the completion of the deal, including due diligence and regulatory approvals. Consequently, they decided to exit their position during the month, reflecting a cautious approach amid these uncertainties.
Source: Trading View
Commentary From The Managers
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Pendal Group
3 Nov 2025
$12.37
Summary
- Pendal Group notes that Origin Energy’s quarterly report met expectations regarding the operating fundamentals of the business.
- The market remains focused on gas production from APLNG, which was stable, indicating a positive outcome.
- There are several non-fundamental updates related to depreciation and amortisation that will lead to a mid-single digit revision in EPS.
- The short useful life of the Eraring Power Station results in rapid depreciation of capital expenditures.
- Octopus's approach to capitalising customer acquisition costs contributes to increased amortisation due to their rapid growth.
- The accounting treatment of battery off-take will result in a rise in stated Net Debt, pushing target metrics towards the upper range of guidance.
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Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Pendal Group
3 Nov 2025
$12.37
- Pendal Group notes that Origin Energy’s quarterly report met expectations regarding the operating fundamentals of the business.
- The market remains focused on gas production from APLNG, which was stable, indicating a positive outcome.
- There are several non-fundamental updates related to depreciation and amortisation that will lead to a mid-single digit revision in EPS.
- The short useful life of the Eraring Power Station results in rapid depreciation of capital expenditures.
- Octopus's approach to capitalising customer acquisition costs contributes to increased amortisation due to their rapid growth.
- The accounting treatment of battery off-take will result in a rise in stated Net Debt, pushing target metrics towards the upper range of guidance.
Summary
Equity Trustees Asset Management
30 Sept 2025
$12.50
- Equity Trustees Asset Management sold their investment in Origin Energy (ORG) after a period of ownership.
- The fund benefited from their holding in ORG.
- ORG is recognized as a strong player in the energy markets, particularly in electricity generation and retail, as well as natural gas retailing.
- Despite ORG's potential to benefit from the energy transition, the stock has become fully valued.
- Equity Trustees Asset Management sees more upside in other stocks compared to ORG.
Summary
Cooper Investors
30 Sept 2025
$12.50
- Cooper Investors reaffirms a positive thesis following a strong FY25 result.
- Performance driven by a standout contribution from the Energy Markets business due to strong operational performance and tight cost control.
- Origin’s Energy Markets segment is strategically positioned to capitalize on increased volatility.
- Leverages a privileged gas peaker asset base and a 1.7GW battery storage development pipeline.
- Advantages include a leading retail brand and a technological edge post-Kraken implementation.
- Management team is highly focused on growth opportunities.
- Positioned to grow both customer base and profit per customer across its diverse portfolio.
- Significant latent value seen in Origin’s 22.7% investment in Octopus Energy.
- Octopus Energy has increased in value from $1.2bn to $3.1bn.
- Octopus Retail is now the largest UK energy retailer with 7.6mn customers and expanding into non-UK markets.
- Kraken Technologies is the leading global enterprise software platform for utility customers.
- Kraken has a 100% migration success rate and services a large addressable market of 2.1bn households.
- A potential IPO of Kraken could unlock significant latent value in this technology business.
Summary
Atlas Funds Management
25 July 2025
$12.04
- Atlas Funds Management continues to hold a significant stake in Octopus Energy, having invested approximately £500 million and owning about 23% of the company.
- The initial investment in Octopus Energy was made around four years ago for £230 million.
- Octopus Energy is preparing for an IPO, with Origin's stake estimated to be worth about £2.3 billion.
- Despite Octopus Energy not generating profits, it is not expected to impact Origin's dividend.
- Atlas believes that Origin will be able to maintain its dividend due to new pricing dynamics, particularly in New South Wales.
- Higher energy prices in the region are anticipated to support the dividend stability.
- Overall, Atlas Funds Management views Origin Energy as a buy.
Summary
Plato Investment Management
25 July 2025
$12.04
- Plato Investment Management continues to hold its position in Origin Energy Ltd.
- Despite recent struggles due to declining oil and gas prices, Origin Energy is expected to recover.
- The earnings drop from APLNG has been offset by benefits from the Octopus investment.
- Avoidance of a previous takeover by AussieSuper is seen as a positive for the market.
- Origin Energy is anticipated to be valued significantly higher than the previous takeover price.
Summary
Yarra Capital Management
31 Jan 2025
$10.45
- Yarra Capital Management remains optimistic about Origin Energy Ltd (ORG), currently maintaining an overweight stance.
- The company has faced challenges, as ORG underperformed following its quarterly update.
- ORG slightly reduced full-year production guidance from APLNG, raising concerns about medium-term production and cost outlook.
- Despite concerns, Yarra Capital Management believes they are overblown given the asset's strong resource base.
- The asset is positioned for extended performance beyond its contracted life.
Summary
Yarra Capital Management
30 Sept 2024
$10.01
- Yarra Capital Management remains overweight on Origin Energy (ORG)
- The company has faced underperformance due to downgrades to FY25 EBITDA expectations
- Factors influencing these downgrades include higher coal costs
- Additionally, there were lower than anticipated cost savings from the implementation of the Kraken software platform
- Yarra Capital Management does not foresee a meaningful permanent impact on the earnings power of ORG
Summary
Oracle Advisory Group
30 Nov 2023
$8.24
- Oracle Advisory Group sold their investment in Origin earlier in November.
- The decision was based on the realization that the Brookfield led consortium would not significantly increase their offer to buy out Origin.
- The consortium’s takeover offer was eventually voted down by shareholders.
- The fund manager was able to avoid significant downside optionality in the stock.
Summary
Oracle Advisory Group
31 Oct 2023
$9.13
- Oracle Advisory Group initiated a small position in Origin Energy Ltd in October.
- The takeover offer led by Brookfield consortium was considered undervalued at approximately $8.90 per share.
- The offer did not fully value the high probability that Origin's Eraring coal-fired power station might remain operational beyond 2025.
- This potential is driven by delays at the Federal government-owned Snowy Hydro.
- Origin's stake in Octopus Energy, a UK energy retailer and software platform, is growing much faster than expected.
- The current environment of higher power prices and a cap on coal prices at $125 per ton supports a higher valuation.
Summary
L1 Capital
31 Dec 2022
$7.59
- Origin Energy shares increased by 49% after a takeover offer of $9.00 per share.
- The offer from Brookfield Asset Management and MidOcean Energy provides a 55% premium to the share price prior to the announcement.
- This offer follows two previous rejected offers at $7.95 and $8.70-$8.90 per share.
- The takeover offer reflects the potential that L1 Capital identified in the company.
- L1 Capital decided to exit the position due to potential risks including due diligence and regulatory approvals.
Summary
L1 Capital
30 Nov 2022
$7.86
- Origin Energy shares rallied after a takeover offer of $9.00 per share.
- The offer represents a 55% premium to the share price prior to the announcement.
- This proposal follows two prior rejected offers of $7.95 and $8.70-$8.90 per share.
- The takeover offer recognises the upside potential identified by L1 Capital.
- L1 Capital decided to exit the position due to remaining risks such as due diligence and regulatory approvals.
Summary
Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
ANALYST INSIGHT
Equity Research Analyst
"A takeover bid at a 55% premium hints at the hidden value in Origin Energy, yet the exit signals lingering doubts about regulatory hurdles and due diligence. Investors should tread carefully; potential rewards might come with unexpected risks."
Last Updated: 03 Nov 2025
Query The Data
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Origin Energy Ltd (ASX:ORG)?
Fund managers including L1 Capital, Oracle Advisory Group, Yarra Capital Management, Atlas Funds Management, Plato Investment Management, Equity Trustees Asset Management and Pendal Group have invested in Origin Energy Ltd (ASX:ORG).
Why do fund managers invest in Origin Energy Ltd?
Fund managers are investing in Origin Energy Ltd due to its significant upside potential, highlighted by a takeover offer of $9.00 per share, which reflects a 55% premium over the pre-announcement price. Previous offers indicated strong interest, and despite exiting their position due to completion risks, the initial investment was driven by the company's perceived value and growth prospects.
What happened to Origin Energy Ltd (ASX:ORG)?
Fund managers have shown interest in Origin Energy Ltd (ORG) due to its strategic positioning in the energy transition, benefiting from its role in electricity generation and natural gas retailing. Despite recognizing that the stock is currently fully valued and noting the impact of accounting adjustments on earnings per share, they see potential in ORG's operational fundamentals, particularly in gas production. However, some fund managers have opted to exit their positions in favor of stocks with greater upside.