Fund Manager Summary
The fund managers believe that the outlook for Treasury Wine Estates Ltd remains promising despite recent market volatility. In their opinion, the recent decline of 6% in TWE's share price, attributed to consumer weakness, does not significantly impact the company's resilience, as approximately 80% of earnings stem from luxury brands like Penfolds. They see significant upside from various factors, including the reopening of China post-tariff reductions and the integration of DAOU into a luxury-focused portfolio. Additionally, ongoing trends toward luxury consumption and potential value unlocking through divesting masstige/premium brands present further opportunities. The upcoming market updates in June, featuring a US winery site visit and a Penfolds global pricing update, are anticipated as strong short-term catalysts.
Source: Trading View
Commentary From The Managers
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QVG Capital
5 Nov 2025
$5.82
Summary
- QVG Capital continues to hold their position in Treasury Wine Estates Ltd.
- A recent downgrade from Treasury Wine Estates contributed positively to returns.
- The company's more prominent brands have performed weaker than anticipated.
- QVG Capital remains optimistic about the long-term potential of the investment.
- Market conditions and brand performance are closely monitored by QVG Capital.
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Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
QVG Capital
5 Nov 2025
$5.82
- QVG Capital continues to hold their position in Treasury Wine Estates Ltd.
- A recent downgrade from Treasury Wine Estates contributed positively to returns.
- The company's more prominent brands have performed weaker than anticipated.
- QVG Capital remains optimistic about the long-term potential of the investment.
- Market conditions and brand performance are closely monitored by QVG Capital.
Summary
Yarra Capital Management
31 Oct 2025
$5.99
- Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) is currently rated as overweight by Yarra Capital Management.
- The company underperformed following the withdrawal of guidance for its flagship Penfolds label.
- Treasury Wine has paused a planned $200 million share buyback.
- Volumes have been impacted by weak demand for Penfolds in China.
- Distribution disruptions in the U.S. may be greater than initially expected.
- Yarra Capital Management believes the market is focusing on short-term issues, including Chinese government restrictions and U.S. consumer weakness.
- This has resulted in the stock trading at a significant valuation disconnect relative to its 10-year average.
- The current valuation stands at 11.4-times FY26 P/E compared to a 22.9-times 10-year average.
Summary
Maple-Brown Abbott
4 July 2025
$8.11
- Maple-Brown Abbott identifies Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) as a significant opportunity, referring to it as a "fallen angel" in the investment space.
- TWE is the owner of the iconic Penfolds wine brand, which has a long-standing history and has been part of various listed companies.
- Historically, TWE has traded at high multiples, typically around mid-twenty times earnings.
- Recent challenges include the ban on Australian wine in China and a controversial acquisition in the US, which affected market perception.
- Despite these setbacks, TWE's stock has been massively derated to around 12 or 13 times earnings.
- Forecasts indicate that TWE's earnings are still expected to grow, suggesting potential for significant outperformance at current valuations.
- Maple-Brown Abbott continues to hold TWE due to its potential for recovery and growth in earnings.
Summary
Oracle Advisory Group
30 June 2025
$7.81
- Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) faced a sell-off due to a tough macroeconomic backdrop in the US.
- The half-yearly results were decent, reflecting resilience in a challenging environment.
- Penfolds contributed positively with increased prices and strong volume uptick.
- Volumes to China showed strong upside, supporting Oracle Advisory Group's investment thesis.
- Expectations for Chinese volume growth remain strong over the next two years.
- Margin expansion is anticipated in FY26 and into FY27.
- TWE has lowered FY26 guidance modestly to low to mid double digits.
- Oracle Advisory Group believes the market has correctly overlooked this news, as the stock is currently depressed.
- Strong catalysts are expected ahead for TWE.
- The company announced a 5% stock buyback, which is seen as highly earnings accretive.
Summary
Paradice Investment Management
30 June 2025
$7.81
- Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) has seen a decline despite reaffirming FY25 earnings.
- The global wine market, especially in the US, continues to face challenges.
- Financially, TWE has outperformed its global competitors.
- Macroeconomic risks are decreasing due to recent geopolitical developments.
- Positive trends in US inflation and jobs data were noted in May.
- EPS revisions for US companies were positive in May, suggesting economic resilience.
- Worst-case scenarios of stagflation or recession appear less likely.
- Uncertainties remain regarding US trade deals with China and Canada.
- US Government debt continues to pose a medium-term challenge.
- The threat of tariffs has caused the US Federal Reserve to pause its easing cycle.
- The US S&P500 is trading at an expensive 23.2x December 2025 P/E ratio.
- Potential negative impacts on Australia from offshore issues now seem muted.
- Australia benefits from increased investment flows in Banking and AREITS.
- China remains a significant factor, with limited formal responses on trade deals.
- The Australian market's 19.3x June 2025 P/E ratio is relatively attractive.
- The Fund is overweight Materials, especially Aluminium through Alcoa and South32.
- Gold is favored as a store of value against inflation and crises.
- The portfolio is underweight Financials, particularly Banks, due to minimal growth prospects.
- Overweight positions in insurers QBE and IAG benefit from a hardening pricing cycle.
- The portfolio includes a reduced position in Block and Macquarie based on fundamentals.
- Selective Industrial stocks like Brambles and SGH are included for their growth potential.
- Penfolds remains a strong brand supporting TWE's valuation amidst management changes.
- Paradice Investment Management continues to hold due to these underlying fundamentals.
Summary
Yarra Capital Management
30 June 2025
$7.81
- Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) is currently rated as overweight by Yarra Capital Management.
- The global winemaking business has underperformed recently due to distributor changes, tariff uncertainty, and softening consumer data.
- FY25 trading results were broadly in-line with consensus.
- TWE's FY26 outlook shows a decline in sell-through for US Luxury brands.
- There have been modest revisions to Penfolds guidance.
- Yarra Capital Management remains confident in the longer-term outlook for Penfolds, contributing over 60% EBIT to TWE.
- TWE is believed to be approaching an inflection point in its product portfolio.
- This potential is not currently reflected in the valuation, which stands at 12.5-times FY26 P/E compared to a 10-year average of 22.9 times.
Summary
Antares Capital
30 June 2025
$7.81
- Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) is clearing parallel channel inventory, now at ~25% of the market, down from over 50%.
- The wholesale price gap between parallel and official channels has narrowed to 8–12%, improving from 20–30%.
- Strong brand awareness remains, with Penfolds as a leading brand for retail and business consumption.
- Entry-level wines are performing well, particularly Koonunga Hill, which is the fastest-growing Penfolds item by volume.
- Mid-tier wine consumption remains weak, with consumers favoring sub-RMB 200 options or ultra-premium SKUs (RMB 5,000+).
- Government anti-waste policies in business settings are affecting around 80% of Penfolds consumption.
- Despite ramping up distribution post-import restriction removal, current inventory levels are elevated due to weak demand.
- Price gaps persist, with parallel products sold via e-commerce being ~30% cheaper than official SKUs.
- Distributors believe TWE cannot raise prices soon due to market sensitivity.
- Antares Capital has reduced exposure to TWE in select portfolios to manage short-term uncertainty.
- Current headwinds are viewed as temporary; strong brand awareness and experienced management are seen as positive factors.
- Monitoring of the Chinese mid- to high-tier wine market for recovery signs continues.
- TWE's stock has been impacted by poor retail data in the US and trade war tariffs affecting China.
- Management's credibility has been questioned following a call to clarify longer-term targets.
- TWE is trading around its NPV, considering the real value of its assets.
- Updated FY25 EBITS guidance is ~$770 million, up 17% year-on-year, slightly ahead of consensus.
- Management flagged a share buyback of up to 5% of issued capital, indicating confidence in undervaluation.
Summary
Yarra Capital Management
31 May 2025
$8.10
- Treasury Wine Estates (TWE, overweight) underperformed during the period due to management churn and tariff uncertainty.
- Softening US consumer data has further affected expectations for the business.
- Management has already trimmed guidance towards the bottom-end of the prior range.
- Retailer scan data indicates a further decline in sell-through, affecting US Luxury brands like DAOU and Frank Family.
- Yarra Capital Management remains confident in the outlook for Penfolds, which contributes over 60% to EBIT.
- TWE is approaching an inflection point in its product portfolio, which is not reflected in the current valuation.
- The current valuation stands at 12.5-times FY26 P/E compared to a 22.9 times 10-year average.
Summary
Perennial Partners
30 Apr 2025
$8.94
- Perennial Partners identifies key holdings with significant upside, particularly those linked to the US economy, including Treasury Wines.
- The stock has faced a sell-off due to valid concerns regarding the US consumer.
- Treasury Wines focuses on the more resilient premium segment of the market.
- Importantly, the majority of the wine sold by Treasury is produced in California, mitigating tariff impacts.
- Over the past 12 months, the stock has declined by -23% and is trading at a -20% discount to the market.
- Currently, it has an FY26 P/E ratio of only 12x.
- Historically, Treasury Wines has traded at a P/E premium of approximately +30% to the market.
- While short-term macro concerns are acknowledged, the potential for a strong re-rating of the stock remains evident.
Summary
Maple-Brown Abbott
31 Mar 2025
$9.75
- Maple-Brown Abbott maintains an overweight holding in Treasury Wine Estates despite a -12% performance.
- Recent sentiment affecting the stock includes weak US wine data and mixed reports on Chinese demand.
- The removal of tariffs on Australian wine has added complexity to the market.
- Confidence remains in the strength and long-term growth potential of Treasury’s brands.
- Current valuations are viewed as compelling.
Summary
Oracle Advisory Group
30 Sept 2024
$12.00
- Oracle Advisory Group updates their investment thesis on Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE).
- The TWE fundamentals are performing as anticipated.
- Sales of luxury wines are maintaining stability despite the macroeconomic downturn.
- With expected US interest rate declines, TWE's discretionary product sales environment should improve.
- Management’s focus on selling off commercial wines aims to enhance the Luxury and Premium wines portfolio.
- The separation into Luxury and Premium wines divisions may signal a future demerger.
- China wine sales are projected to increase significantly in FY25 and reach full potential in FY26.
- Global price increases for Penfolds this fiscal year contribute to optimism.
- The recent stock pullback presents an opportunity, as valuations are attractive.
- Given the anticipated improvement in fundamentals, the TWE weight in the portfolio has been increased.
Summary
BKI Investment Company
30 June 2024
$12.13
- BKI Investment Company sold their investment in Treasury Wine Estates (TWE-ASX).
- They believe the removal of Chinese import tariffs is a positive development.
- However, a return to previous export volumes for TWE may take time.
- There is an apparent glut of product in the system.
- TWE is exposed to agricultural and seasonal risks.
Summary
Blackwattle Investment Partners
30 May 2024
$11.02
- Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) was the largest negative contributor to performance in May, experiencing a 6% decline due to market concerns about consumer weakness.
- TWE is recognized as a luxury, global wine company, noted for its market-leading Penfolds brand.
- The market's focus on consumer discretionary sector earnings risk has been amplified by weaker trading updates from companies like Baby Bunting and JB Hi-Fi.
- However, Blackwattle Investment Partners believes TWE is largely protected from immediate consumer weakness, as ~80% of earnings stem from luxury brands.
- The wealthier consumer segment has shown continued resilience, which benefits TWE.
- Beyond short-term earnings challenges, there are several upside opportunities for TWE, including:
- Reopening of China with tariff reductions for Penfolds.
- Integration of DAOU into a global luxury-focused portfolio.
- Global trends towards luxury consumption.
- Potential value unlocking through divesting TWE’s masstige/premium portfolio.
- TWE plans to update the market in June with a US winery site visit and a Penfolds global pricing update, viewed as short-term catalysts for greater long-term opportunities.
Summary
Oracle Advisory Group
31 Mar 2024
$12.79
- Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) appears to be fairly valued at first glance.
- There is a hidden Chinese call option in the stock that could offer upside from recent price levels.
- The removal of Chinese anti-dumping duties on Australian wine, effective from March 2021, is a positive development.
- Potential for upside from a demerger due to the current discount to the sum of the parts value.
- TWE is viewed as an attractive takeover candidate because of its relatively small size, prestigious products, and unlevered balance sheet.
- Oracle Advisory Group continues to hold its position in TWE given these factors.
Summary
Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
ANALYST INSIGHT
Equity Research Analyst
"While Treasury Wine Estates faces short-term headwinds, the luxury segment appears resilient. With strategic moves in China and a focus on high-end brands, TWE could unlock significant value, suggesting that patience may yield rewarding returns for savvy investors."
Last Updated: 05 Nov 2025
Query The Data
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX:TWE)?
Fund managers including Blackwattle Investment Partners, Oracle Advisory Group, Maple-Brown Abbott, Yarra Capital Management, Antares Capital, Paradice Investment Management, BKI Investment Company, QVG Capital and Perennial Partners have invested in Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX:TWE).
Why do fund managers invest in Treasury Wine Estates Ltd?
Fund managers invest in Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) due to its strong positioning in the luxury wine market, particularly with its leading Penfolds brand. Despite recent market concerns about consumer weakness affecting earnings, TWE's revenue is largely insulated as approximately 80% comes from luxury brands, which have shown resilience among wealthier consumers. Additionally, potential catalysts for growth include the reopening of China post-tariff reductions, strategic integration of DAOU into TWE's luxury portfolio, and ongoing trends favoring luxury consumption. Fund managers also see value in divesting TWE’s masstige and premium brands, enhancing overall portfolio strength.
What happened to Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX:TWE)?
Fund managers, including QVG Capital, have invested in Treasury Wine Estates Ltd due to recent downgrades reflecting weaker-than-expected performance of its prominent brands. This situation presents potential for recovery and value appreciation, making it an attractive investment opportunity.