Fund Manager Summary on Cedar Woods Properties Ltd (ASX:CWP)
In October 2025, Wilson Asset Management commented that Cedar Woods Properties Ltd (ASX:CWP) reported a strong September quarter with settlement volumes up 17% year‑on‑year, management upgraded FY2026 net profit guidance to 15% growth and over 90% of FY2026 revenue was pre‑sold, reflecting high earnings visibility across its c.9,400 lots, dwellings and office units; overall, fund managers view CWP positively but pragmatically: recent commentary from Wilson and earlier Ellerston Capital (April and June 2025) converges on upgraded profit guidance (15%), substantial presales (over $700m and cited as up 20% year‑on‑year), and clear structural tailwinds from Australia’s housing shortage, population growth and supportive policy; actionable considerations are that CWP’s robust balance sheet and assertive land acquisition strategy (including a $50m Fairfield, VIC site) provide pipeline growth and earnings visibility, but investors should monitor operational execution—presale-to-settlement conversion, margin trends and construction or delivery delays—alongside exposure to geographic market cycles (VIC, QLD, WA, SA), potential interest rate volatility and cost pressures that could affect returns on new land investments.
Commentary From The Managers
There are 4 insights from 3 fund managers regarding their investment in Cedar Woods Properties Ltd (ASX:CWP) available on Thesis Tracker.
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Updates are made available to members within 12 hours of being released. The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Wilson Asset Management
31 Oct 2025
$9.03
Summary
- Cedar Woods Properties is a property developer and investor focused on urban land subdivision and built form development for residential, commercial, and retail purposes.
- In October, the company reported a strong September quarter result, indicating excellent execution and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
- The ongoing structural housing shortage in Australia has positively impacted the company’s performance.
- Property settlement volumes increased by 17% compared to the same quarter in 2024.
- Management has upgraded FY2026 net profit guidance from 10% to 15% growth.
- The company enjoys high earnings visibility, with over 90% of FY2026 revenue already pre-sold, marking the most visibility it has had in decades.
- Cedar Woods Properties has approximately 9,400 lots, dwellings, and office units across 35 projects in Queensland, Victoria, Western Australia, and South Australia.
- The company is well positioned to benefit from population growth, limited housing supply, and supportive government policy expected to sustain demand over the medium term.
Ellerston Capital
30 June 2025
$7.09
Summary
- Cedar Woods Properties Ltd (CWP AU) experienced a 37% increase in stock price during the quarter.
- The company provided a strong third-quarter trading update, upgrading FY25 NPAT guidance to a 15% growth compared to the prior year.
- Reported presales exceeding $700 million, ensuring strong revenue visibility into FY26.
- Major projects across Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia, and Queensland contribute to the company’s pipeline.
- A favourable housing supply-demand dynamic and easing interest rate outlook have bolstered market sentiment.
- CWP benefits from price growth in key geographies and has adopted a more assertive land acquisition strategy.
- Recent acquisition of a $50 million site in Fairfield, VIC highlights this strategy.
- The stock remains a core holding for Ellerston Capital, supported by a robust balance sheet and visible earnings growth.
- Overall, CWP is positioned well due to structural tailwinds in the residential development market.
Ellerston Capital
30 Apr 2025
$5.60
Summary
- Ellerston Capital notes Cedar Woods (CWP AU) rose 8% following a strong Q3 update.
- The company upgraded FY25 NPAT growth guidance to 15% (from over 10%).
- Positive FY26 outlook supported by over $700 million in presales, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase.
- With the federal election concluded, the Labor government's policies favor new housing construction and first-home buyer support.
- Cedar Woods is well positioned to benefit from these structural tailwinds.
Renaissance Asset Management
30 June 2024
$4.62
Summary
- Renaissance Asset Management believes Cedar Woods Properties (CWP) is well positioned to benefit from constrained supply and sustained demand, and initiated a position because it is a capital‑light developer with 35 active projects and JV pipelines that can drive a two‑year growth runway.
- Renaissance Asset Management is cautious on interest rates — upcoming CPI could force the RBA to hike rates and pose downside risk to property markets.
- Key demand drivers we focus on include affordability, credit availability, supply, employment, income and confidence; additionally, strong immigration over recent years supports underlying housing demand while new supply remains constrained.
- CWP operates 35 projects across land subdivision, apartments, townhouses, associated commercial/retail within masterplanned communities, and some retirement product — a long history and quality developer.
- Over the last decade CWP has diversified beyond WA into VIC, SA and QLD, improving geographic exposure and project pipeline depth.
- CWP’s capital‑light JV strategy is central to our thesis: a 50/50 JV with QIC leverages QIC’s assets and CWP’s development expertise, with CWP earning development/management fees and value accretion to retail assets; we expect initial sales from 2026 and clearer contributions by 2027.
- A similar JV with Tokyo Gas positions CWP to source and develop sites with expected sales from 2027, extending the capital‑light growth runway.
- We identified CWP as a micro‑cap exposed to improving sales volumes with inventory that can meet the market — the business is leveraged to a recovery in residential demand.
- Given CWP is effectively a two‑year story, we have initiated a small position today and will monitor sales execution, JV progress and rate risk before scaling the holding.
The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Cedar Woods Properties Ltd (ASX:CWP)?
Fund managers including Ellerston Capital, Wilson Asset Management and Renaissance Asset Management have invested in Cedar Woods Properties Ltd (ASX:CWP).
Why do fund managers invest in Cedar Woods Properties Ltd?
Fund managers invest in Cedar Woods Properties Ltd due to its strong growth prospects and solid revenue visibility, driven by over $700 million in presales and an upgraded FY25 profit guidance reflecting a projected 15% growth. The company benefits from a favorable housing supply-demand dynamic and a supportive government policy for housing construction. With a robust balance sheet and a strategic land acquisition strategy, Cedar Woods is well-positioned in the residential development market, making it an attractive investment with manageable risks.
What happened to Cedar Woods Properties Ltd (ASX:CWP)?
Fund managers are investing in Cedar Woods Properties Ltd due to its strong market performance, reflecting effective execution and favorable macroeconomic conditions in the Australian property sector. The company reported a notable 17% increase in property settlement volumes compared to the previous year and upgraded its FY2026 net profit guidance by 10-15%. With over 90% of its FY2026 revenue already pre-sold, Cedar Woods demonstrates high earnings visibility and has a robust project portfolio featuring approximately 9,400 lots across multiple regions. This positions the company to capitalize on ongoing population growth and a structural housing shortage, supported by favorable government policies.
What is the short interest in Cedar Woods Properties Ltd (ASX:CWP)?
The short interest in Cedar Woods Properties Ltd (ASX:CWP) is 0.49% which makes it the 278th most shorted stock on the ASX. Of the 85.1M shares that Cedar Woods Properties Ltd has on issue, 416.7K have been sold short.
What does Cedar Woods Properties Ltd (ASX:CWP) do?
Cedar Woods Properties Ltd. engages in property investment and development. The firm's principal interests are in urban land and built form development for residential, industrial and commercial purposes. Its projects include St. A in St Albans, Jackson Green in Clayton South, Williams Landing, Bushmead, Harrisdale Green, Ellendale, and Glenside. The company was founded by William George Hames and Ross James Neumann in 1987 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.