Fund Manager Summary
The fund managers believe that the outlook for Paladin Energy Ltd presents a significant opportunity due to its strategic position in the nuclear demand sector. In their opinion, Paladin is well-positioned to benefit from the near-term supply shortfall in uranium, driven by the increasing need for baseload power to support renewable energy sources. The recent 10% rise in PDN shares following the December quarterly update indicates positive momentum, especially as the company addresses ramp-up challenges at the Langer Heinrich mine. The fund managers expect material share price outperformance as Paladin approaches full production within the next six months, making it a compelling investment in the current market landscape.
Source: Trading View
Commentary From The Managers
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Blackwattle Investment Partners
31 July 2025
$6.21
Summary
- Paladin Energy (-23.0%) is a key exposure for Blackwattle Investment Partners in the nuclear demand thematic.
- The company addresses the need for baseload power to support the growing fleet of intermittent renewable generators.
- As a uranium producer (not a developer), Paladin is positioned to benefit from a near-term supply shortfall.
- High incentive pricing is required to stimulate further uranium production.
- The uranium price outlook is a critical driver for Paladin Energy.
- In early 2025, the spot price has been artificially suppressed.
- In June, the selling imbalance was rectified as Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) raised US$200m to purchase physical uranium.
- This event is viewed as a turning point for the spot price, contributing to Paladin's 30% rise in June.
- Despite a lower consolidation in July, Blackwattle Investment Partners sees a broader trend continuing higher into late 2025.
- Utility buyers are expected to re-enter the market post a tariff-induced buying hiatus.
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Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Blackwattle Investment Partners
31 July 2025
$6.21
- Paladin Energy (-23.0%) is a key exposure for Blackwattle Investment Partners in the nuclear demand thematic.
- The company addresses the need for baseload power to support the growing fleet of intermittent renewable generators.
- As a uranium producer (not a developer), Paladin is positioned to benefit from a near-term supply shortfall.
- High incentive pricing is required to stimulate further uranium production.
- The uranium price outlook is a critical driver for Paladin Energy.
- In early 2025, the spot price has been artificially suppressed.
- In June, the selling imbalance was rectified as Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) raised US$200m to purchase physical uranium.
- This event is viewed as a turning point for the spot price, contributing to Paladin's 30% rise in June.
- Despite a lower consolidation in July, Blackwattle Investment Partners sees a broader trend continuing higher into late 2025.
- Utility buyers are expected to re-enter the market post a tariff-induced buying hiatus.
Summary
Blackwattle Investment Partners
30 June 2025
$8.07
- Paladin shares rose 29.3% in June.
- Paladin is the fund’s key exposure to the nuclear demand thematic and the need for baseload power to support the growing fleet of intermittent renewable generators.
- As a uranium producer (not a developer), Paladin is well-positioned to benefit from the near-term supply shortfall and the high incentive pricing required to stimulate further uranium production.
- In early 2025, Paladin experienced ramp-up issues at the Langer Heinrich mine.
- While such challenges are common during ramp-up phases, Paladin shares experienced a significant sell-off.
- With many of these issues now rectified and with the uranium spot price recovering to more realistic levels, we see potential for material share price outperformance.
Summary
Blackwattle Investment Partners
31 Mar 2025
$5.11
- Paladin Energy experienced a drop of 25.7% in March due to a significant flood event at its Langer Heinrich mine.
- The extent of damage from the flood has been clarified, with production impacted for a limited number of weeks.
- Delays in reaching nameplate capacity have pushed out timelines, which is viewed as a critical milestone.
- Continued softness in the spot price and market uncertainty have contributed to ongoing declines in Paladin's share price.
- Blackwattle Investment Partners has reduced the position size while awaiting further clarity from management on the ramp-up timeline.
- Investors can expect commentary on these issues during the March quarterly investor call later this month.
Summary
Blackwattle Investment Partners
28 Feb 2025
$6.88
- Paladin Energy dropped 22.9%, influenced by declining uranium prices.
- The decline was largely due to expectations of a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, which could lead to eased U.S. uranium restrictions.
- Blackwattle Investment Partners believes this scenario is unlikely due to ongoing Russian hostility.
- Energy security remains a priority for Western nations, minimizing incentives to access Russian-sourced uranium.
- In February, Paladin reported progress at its Langer Heinrich mine, advancing toward mining activity.
- The processing of higher-grade ore is seen as a significant catalyst for the business.
- Blackwattle Investment Partners continues to hold because of these operational advancements and market conditions.
Summary
Blackwattle Investment Partners
31 Jan 2025
$8.92
- Paladin Energy remains the fund’s key exposure to the nuclear demand thematic.
- There is a growing need for baseload power to support the increasing fleet of intermittent renewable generators.
- As a uranium producer, Paladin is ideally positioned to capitalise on the near-term supply shortfall.
- High incentive pricing is necessary to stimulate further uranium production.
- In January, PDN shares rose 10% following the December quarterly update.
- The update highlighted progress in resolving ramp-up issues at the Langer Heinrich mine.
- While ramp-up challenges are common, PDN shares faced a significant sell-off in late 2024.
- The company is expected to reach full production in the next six months.
- There is potential for material share price outperformance.
Summary
Blackwattle Investment Partners
30 Nov 2024
$7.66
- Paladin Energy is the fund’s primary exposure to nuclear demand thematic and base load power needs.
- Recovery in uranium commodity prices recently due to announcements from major energy users like Meta, Amazon, and Google investing in nuclear capacity.
- Despite short-term price movements driven by speculators, there is a chronic undersupply of uranium.
- Paladin, being a uranium producer, is well-positioned to capitalize on the near-term shortfall and incentive pricing.
- Shares fell 25% in response to downgraded FY25 production guidance from Langer Heinrich mine.
- Recent quarterly announcement revealed ramp-up teething issues.
- The recent stock price movement seems anomalous, as guidance was already deemed unachievable by market participants.
- Current trading reflects a material discount to peer group, suggesting substantial upside if ramp-up issues are resolved.
Summary
Blackwattle Investment Partners
31 Oct 2024
$10.20
- Paladin Energy is the fund’s primary exposure to the structural tailwinds for nuclear base load power.
- Uranium commodity prices have recently recovered due to major energy users like Amazon and Google investing in nuclear capacity for their data centres.
- Despite speculative short-term moves in U308 pricing, there is a chronic undersupply of uranium to support announced projects.
- Paladin Energy is a uranium producer, positioning it to capitalize on the near-term shortfall and high incentive pricing needed for further supply investment.
- PDN aims to leverage cashflow generation to become a consolidator/leader in uranium supply.
- Shares in the company fell 12% over the month due to lower-than-expected production from the Langer Heinrich mine in its September quarterly.
- This was the first full quarter of production since reopening the mine, making teething issues common in this phase.
Summary
Monash Investors
30 Sept 2024
$11.55
- Nuclear energy is gaining global interest as governments aim for carbon net zero and reliable power supply.
- Despite mixed perceptions in Australia, nuclear is a safe, reliable, and low-carbon energy source set to grow in importance.
- Currently, there are 440 nuclear reactors operating worldwide, with an additional 60 under construction and 110 planned.
- This increase in reactors will necessitate a significant rise in uranium production.
- The uranium price has surged, with further gains likely due to a persistent supply/demand shortfall.
- Paladin Energy is a key player, being one of the few operational uranium producers in Australia.
- Paladin has successfully recommissioned the Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia and is acquiring Fission Uranium in Canada.
- This acquisition will position Paladin as a globally significant uranium producer.
- With a solid market valuation, strong balance sheet, and prospective free cash flow generation, Paladin remains a key holding for Monash Investors.
Summary
Blackwattle Investment Partners
30 Sept 2024
$11.55
- Paladin shares rose 18% in September as the uranium price found support after a period of weakness.
- Commodity price weakness was due to a lack of contracted volume for physical uranium as utility buyers held back.
- Historically, most contracted volume is transacted in the latter part of the year post the annual World Nuclear Symposium.
- Blackwattle Investment Partners anticipates similar trends for 2024.
- They have taken advantage of recent share price weakness to increase their position size.
Summary
Blackwattle Investment Partners
31 Aug 2024
$9.60
- Paladin Energy dropped 14% over the month due to a decline in the uranium spot price.
- At a share price of $8.50, the implied Uranium price is US$50/lb, significantly lower than the current term rate of US$79/lb.
- This indicates that the recent share price movement may be overdone.
- While short-term price fluctuations are influenced by commodity prices, Blackwattle Investment Partners sees long-term prospects as greatly improved.
- The recent acquisition of Fission Uranium enhances PDN's growth options.
- This acquisition allows PDN to leverage cash flow from its Langer Heinrich asset to fund future growth.
- The project was previously unfunded under Fission’s ownership, which unlocks significant value for PDN shareholders.
- Blackwattle expects this value to be recognized as the uranium price stabilizes.
Summary
Blackwattle Investment Partners
31 July 2024
$11.41
- Blackwattle Investment Partners notes a 9% drop in Paladin Energy's share price, primarily influenced by the uranium spot price.
- Despite the drop, at a PDN share price of $10, the implied uranium price is US$65/lb, significantly lower than the current spot rate of US$79/lb.
- This discrepancy indicates that the recent share price movement may be overdone.
- The company’s long-term outlook has been enhanced by the recent acquisition of Fission Uranium (FCU.TSX), a high-grade development project in Canada.
- This acquisition provides quality growth options for PDN, which can be funded through cash flow from the existing Langer Heinrich asset.
- The deal unlocks significant value for PDN shareholders by addressing the project's previous funding issues under Fission's ownership.
- Blackwattle Investment Partners anticipates that these factors will be fully recognized as the uranium price stabilizes.
Summary
Monash Investors
31 May 2024
$15.93
- Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) has seen a 14% increase in stock price, driven by favorable market sentiment.
- This sentiment is largely due to the US Senate passing a bill aimed at banning the import of enriched uranium fuel from Russia.
- The bill represents a significant step towards reducing US reliance on Russian fuel, which currently holds about 40% of global enrichment capacity.
- Monash Investors continues to hold Paladin, reflecting confidence in the growing demand for uranium amid geopolitical shifts.
- The expected final approval from President Biden is a critical factor that may further enhance the uranium sector.
- Overall, the macroeconomic conditions and policy changes are aligning favorably for Paladin Energy.
Summary
Monash Investors
31 May 2023
$5.45
- Monash Investors remains optimistic about Paladin Energy's future prospects.
- A recent speculation by a Namibian government minister regarding a free carry interest in mining and oil companies led to a 17% decline in stock price.
- Despite this setback, Paladin Energy successfully recaptured its share price by June.
- The firm believes that the underlying fundamentals of the company remain strong.
- Monash Investors continues to hold their position in Paladin, citing potential for growth.
Summary
Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
ANALYST INSIGHT
Equity Research Analyst
"As demand for nuclear energy intensifies amid a global shift towards reliable baseload power, Paladin Energy appears poised to capitalize on the looming uranium supply crunch, potentially driving its share price to outperform expectations as production stabilizes."
Last Updated: 31 Jul 2025
Query The Data
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX:PDN)?
Fund managers including Blackwattle Investment Partners and Monash Investors have invested in Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX:PDN).
Why do fund managers invest in Paladin Energy Ltd?
Fund managers invest in Paladin Energy Ltd due to its strategic position in the nuclear energy sector, which is increasingly vital for consistent power generation alongside renewable sources. As an established uranium producer, Paladin is poised to capitalize on the anticipated supply shortfall and favorable pricing conditions in the uranium market. Recent progress in resolving operational challenges at the Langer Heinrich mine further enhances its potential for significant share price growth as full production is expected within six months.
What happened to Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX:PDN)?
Fund managers see Paladin Energy Ltd as a strategic investment due to its position as a uranium producer amid rising nuclear demand for baseload power. With an anticipated supply shortfall and increasing uranium prices, particularly following recent market corrections, Paladin is poised for growth. The company's performance is closely tied to uranium price trends, and as utility buyers return to the market, the outlook remains positive for late 2025.