Fund Manager Summary on Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS)
In March 2026, Wilson Asset Management commented that Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS) stands to benefit from a recent surge in oil prices above USD100/barrel, which lifts revenue via oil‑linked contracts and supports their confidence in the company as a core holding. Across fund managers, the consensus is that Woodside’s transformation into a larger global LNG and infrastructure-focused business—anchored by its Louisiana LNG project, Scarborough, Sangomar and other developments—creates material long‑term growth optionality, while near‑term performance is tightly linked to commodity prices, execution on major projects and capital management; several managers highlight successful partial sell‑downs (Stonepeak, Williams) as strategic de‑risking that should ease gearing during the multi‑year US LNG build‑out, yet others have exited or reduced exposure due to concerns around US-to-Europe gas arbitrage, volatility in oil and LNG markets and the capital intensity of large projects. Actionable considerations emphasised by managers include monitoring the duration of higher oil and LNG prices that materially affect EBITDA, tracking further planned sell‑downs of Louisiana LNG to manage leverage, validating on‑budget/on‑schedule delivery for Scarborough/Sangomar/Louisiana to protect value, and assessing hydrogen and new‑energy investments as small but growing optionality; downside risks flagged are commodity price weakness, execution and capex overruns, higher gearing through the build phase, and potential meaningful dividend reduction in FY26 as production and prices normalise. Overall, recent bullish commentary tied to higher oil and stronger FY25 results is balanced by persistent macro and project‑execution risks, leading to divergent positioning among funds where some have added to positions anticipating cash flow upside and others have reduced or closed positions due to structural commodity exposure.
Commentary From The Managers
There are 24 insights from 13 fund managers regarding their investment in Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS) available on Thesis Tracker.
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Updates are made available to members within 12 hours of being released. The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Alphinity Investment Management
16 Mar 2026
$31.63
Summary
- Alphinity Investment Management continues to hold Woodside Energy Group Ltd because the short-term upside remains compelling despite recent share price gains.
- Alphinity was already bullish on oil and gas fundamentals before Woodside climbed a further 6%.
- The manager sees potential for Woodside to surprise to the upside in the near term, validating continued conviction.
- Rather than taking profits, the team believes the medium-term earnings trajectory justifies holding.
Wilson Asset Management
9 Mar 2026
$31.36
Summary
- Wilson Asset Management believes Woodside's earnings and margins are materially supported by sustained higher oil prices and continues to hold because the company benefits from oil‑linked contracts, delivered a strong FY2025 result, has management that inspires confidence, and fits as a core holding in the WAM Leaders portfolio.
- Recent oil move: oil rose ~40% in the past two weeks to above USD100 per barrel, a clear tailwind for energy producers including Woodside.
- Oil‑linked contracts directly lift revenue and expand profit margins, translating higher oil prices into stronger cash flow for Woodside.
- Sensitivity analysis shows a USD10 increase to ~USD80/bbl is associated with a low‑double‑digit uplift in EBITDA, while a further increase USD80→USD90 produces a high single‑digit uplift.
- With oil now above these levels, Woodside stands to benefit further, though earnings outcomes depend on the duration of higher prices.
- Operational confidence: the FY2025 result was strong with few surprises, and meetings with management reinforced WAM's positive outlook.
- Portfolio position: Woodside remains a core holding in the WAM Leaders investment portfolio due to its price exposure, contract structure, recent results, and management outlook.
Pendal Group
2 Mar 2026
$30.24
Summary
- Pendal Group believes Woodside's FY25 result broadly met expectations and continues to hold because a better tax outcome lifted underlying NPAT and supported a dividend at the top of guidance while the company executes a multi‑year LNG build‑out.
- FY25 outcome: result was largely pre‑announced; an improved tax rate increased Underlying NPAT and enabled a higher cash dividend.
- Dividend policy: payout ratio maintained at the top of the range at 80%, demonstrating commitment to shareholder returns within policy bands.
- Gearing position: leverage sits toward the top of Pendal’s desired range as Woodside funds a multi‑year build‑out in North America LNG.
- Capital management: further sell‑downs of the Louisiana LNG Project are expected and viewed as the mechanism to keep gearing more reasonable over time.
- Project newsflow: no material new project updates were announced in this result.
- Sangomar (Senegal): the oil project has pleasantly surprised by remaining on plateau longer than expected, though production began to decline toward the end of last year.
- Near‑term outlook: dividend is expected to drop meaningfully in FY26 as commodity prices and production tail off.
Wilson Asset Management
28 Feb 2026
$30.24
Summary
- Wilson Asset Management remains constructive on Woodside Energy Group and continues to hold, supported by its leverage to global LNG pricing, near-term production growth, and the potential partial sale of its Louisiana LNG stake.
- Woodside benefited from a tightening global LNG market following the suspension of operations at QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan facility, the world's largest LNG plant.
- Compared with Australian peers, Woodside has greater exposure to global gas market pricing, positioning it to benefit from higher oil and gas prices following the Iran conflict.
- The company delivered a strong result, with its dividend coming in ahead of expectations.
- The Scarborough LNG growth project is approaching completion and remains on track and on budget, providing a catalyst for near-term production growth.
- The potential partial sale of Woodside's stake in the Louisiana LNG project represents an additional near-term value catalyst.
Firetrail Investments
30 Jan 2026
$25.37
Summary
- Firetrail Investments believes Woodside’s portfolio is allocating capital to projects delivering mid‑to‑low‑teens returns, and reduced their position because those returns are insufficient for an upstream energy business; consequently the view is a sell.
- Energy-sector stance: We don’t mind the energy space, but find energy stocks hard to invest in because firms can only develop opportunities that already sit in their portfolios.
- Capital deployment: Woodside is committing billions of dollars into new developments.
- Return profile: Projected returns in the mid‑to‑low‑teens do not meet Firetrail’s required hurdle for the sector.
- Risk/return: High capital intensity and execution risk make mid‑teens returns unattractive relative to the risks and alternatives available to the fund.
- Portfolio construction: Given limited ability to create incremental high‑return options within Woodside’s portfolio, capital is better allocated elsewhere.
- Investment action: The combination of weak return prospects and opportunity cost led to a reduction in the position and a sell verdict.
Wilson Asset Management
30 Jan 2026
$25.37
Summary
- Wilson Asset Management believes Woodside Energy is a buy and continues to hold because it offers the largest, most liquid ASX expression of our anti‑consensus energy view and should benefit if an oil price inflection occurs.
- Anti‑consensus energy view: positioning in the market is very negative, so we expect only modest positivity is required for a material re‑rating in oil‑linked assets.
- Oil price inflection: we anticipate a potential oil deficit by mid to late this year, which could drive higher oil prices and support Woodside’s outlook.
- Uncorrelated asset class: energy remains one of the few sectors with low correlation to broader markets, providing portfolio diversification and latent value.
- Simplicity of exposure: Woodside is a straightforward way to express our energy thesis—large, liquid and directly exposed to oil and gas fundamentals.
- Liquidity and scale: as the largest ASX representation of the theme, Woodside offers trading liquidity and market accessibility for implementing this view.
- Latent upside: with bearish positioning and the potential for supply tightness, Woodside presents asymmetric upside relative to current market sentiment.
PM Capital
31 Dec 2025
$23.59
Summary
- Position closed: PM Capital closed its position in Woodside during the month, before the stock fell nearly 10% on concerns around the US‑to‑Europe gas arbitrage.
- Growing commodity exposure concern: PM Capital had become increasingly concerned about Woodside’s commodity exposure, particularly related to the Louisiana LNG project.
- Project economics risk: PM Capital notes the Louisiana LNG project is potentially multi‑billion dollar and depended on a dynamic of low US gas prices and high global LNG prices that has materially reversed since acquisition.
- Market catalyst: PM Capital links the stock weakness to arbitrage and pricing dynamics that undermine the project’s prior assumptions.
- Risk management action: PM Capital updated its investment thesis by exiting the position to reflect the changed fundamental outlook and near‑term downside risk.
- Non‑recommendation: PM Capital’s update describes its internal investment decision and should not be taken as financial advice.
Wentworth Williamson
31 Dec 2025
$23.59
Summary
- Wentworth Williamson believes Woodside Energy is a high-conviction, long-term holding and continues to hold because the company has strengthened its portfolio, is well positioned for the natural gas transition, is nearing the end of a major capex cycle with conservative leverage, and is likely to generate significant free cash flow to support shareholder returns.
- Wentworth Williamson highlights Australia’s largest oil and gas producer and a core holding in the Fund.
- Wentworth Williamson notes recent completion of two US-focused acquisitions and several asset swaps that have materially strengthened and simplified the global portfolio.
- Wentworth Williamson sees a very positive long-term outlook for natural gas as a transition fuel and believes Woodside is well positioned to benefit from rising gas demand as economies decarbonise.
- Wentworth Williamson points out Woodside is nearing the end of a major capital expenditure program and has maintained a conservative leverage profile throughout.
- Wentworth Williamson expects growth projects moving from construction into production will drive significant free cash flow over the coming years.
- Wentworth Williamson expects a substantial portion of that cash flow to be returned to shareholders via attractive dividends and ongoing share buybacks.
Endeavor Asset Management
31 Oct 2025
$24.80
Summary
- Woodside (WDS) experienced an 8% increase in share price following the partial sell down of its Louisiana LNG asset.
- The transaction offers a small mark to market uplift on the asset.
- It introduces US-based gas transport and sourcing expertise into the partnership.
- The deal generates approximately $380 million that can be utilized to pay down debt.
- Endeavor Asset Management believes this partnership will derisk the asset and enhance execution.
- The involvement of Williams, a leading US midstream operator, is expected to improve operational efficiency.
Pendal Group
27 Oct 2025
$24.69
Summary
- Pendal Group acknowledges Woodside Energy’s (WDS, +10.4%) strong quarterly performance, particularly in LNG production.
- Production guidance for the full year has been increased, reflecting robust output from LNG facilities.
- Cost guidance has seen a marginal improvement due to enhanced production efficiency.
- The capex budget has been reduced, with some expenditures deferred from FY25 to FY26.
- Management announced a 10% sell-down of the Louisiana LNG project to Williams, a significant midstream player in North America.
- This transaction involves a sell-down of the pipeline as well, adding complexity to the deal.
- Estimated value realised from the transaction aligns with the original WDS entry valuation.
- Pendal Group notes that WDS aims to ultimately sell down 20-30% of the Louisiana LNG project.
Endeavor Asset Management
30 Sept 2025
$23.03
Summary
- Endeavor Asset Management has re-entered a position in Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) after a recent pullback in share price.
- Oil prices have stabilized in the range of US$60–65 per barrel over the past few months.
- Global economic policies are evolving, with many economies shifting towards growth.
- As we approach the seasonally stronger northern hemisphere winter, there is a favourable risk-reward skew for the stock.
- Woodside is currently trading at a 13x P/E ratio.
- The estimated FY25e dividend yield is around 6.3% for calendar year 2025.
Wentworth Williamson
30 Sept 2025
$23.03
Summary
- Woodside is Australia’s largest oil and gas producer.
- Recent completions of two acquisitions enhance their footprint in the US.
- Asset swaps have streamlined their portfolio.
- Positive long-term outlook for gas as it aids in transitioning to lower carbon emissions.
- Woodside is near the end of a large capital expenditure program.
- The company maintains a conservative leverage ratio.
- Expect significant free cash flow generation in the coming years.
- Anticipated returns through large dividends and share buybacks.
Pendal Group
30 Sept 2025
$23.03
Summary
- Underweight Woodside Energy (WDS, -12.8%)
- OPEC+ commentary suggests increased supply, leading to a cautious market outlook for oil prices and the energy sector.
- Pendal Group continues to prefer Santos over Woodside within the energy space.
- Santos is at an inflection point with declining capex and increasing production from the Barossa field.
- This supports a favorable outlook for capital return.
Tamim Funds Management
31 July 2025
$26.59
Summary
- Tamim Funds Management continues to hold Woodside Energy (WDS.AX) due to its resumed full operational control of Bass Strait gas assets.
- Woodside is a key player in Australia’s energy independence and global energy transition.
- The company is positioned to benefit from a pragmatic approach to energy, balancing emission reduction with energy security.
- Woodside provides exposure to LNG, which is essential in transitioning from coal to renewables, particularly in Asia.
- Strong free cash flow generation and disciplined capital allocation enhance Woodside's investment appeal.
- High-return project options in the Gulf of Mexico and Senegal support both income and growth potential.
- The Scarborough gas project exemplifies Woodside's capability in executing large-scale, long-life projects.
- Despite recent stock pressure from lower spot LNG pricing, Tamim Funds Management views these pressures as transient.
- In an era prioritizing energy diversification and reliability, Woodside presents a resilient, cash-generative business model.
- The company has strategic assets and optionality in both conventional and transitional energy markets.
Yarra Capital Management
31 July 2025
$26.59
Summary
- Woodside Energy (WDS, overweight) has shown strong performance following its quarterly update.
- Production increased by 3%, and revenue rose by 7%.
- The company has upgraded production guidance and achieved lower unit costs.
- Yarra Capital Management is attracted to Woodside's strong growth profile from new projects that are on budget.
- The company is scheduled to increase production by more than 30% over the next two years.
Clime Investment Management
30 June 2025
$23.63
Summary
- Clime Investment Management initiated a position in Woodside Energy Group Ltd in June.
- The investment is supported by Woodside's strong project pipeline.
- Woodside is favourably positioned as a global LNG leader amidst geopolitical tensions.
- Higher oil and LNG prices have enhanced cash flow visibility for the company.
- Near-term free cash flow is impacted by heavy investment, yet long-term value is anticipated.
- Key long-term developments include US LNG expansion, Scarborough, and Sangomar projects.
- Execution and commodity price risks are acknowledged by the fund manager.
- Clime Investment Management believes Woodside offers an attractive blend of scale, diversification, and embedded growth.
- This growth potential is not fully reflected in the current share price.
Wentworth Williamson
30 June 2025
$23.63
Summary
- Woodside Energy Group Ltd is recognized as Australia’s largest oil and gas producer.
- Recently, Woodside completed two acquisitions to expand their footprint in the US.
- The company has undertaken asset swaps aimed at simplifying their portfolio.
- Wentworth Williamson believes the long-term outlook for gas is very positive.
- Gas is seen as playing a key role in the transition to lower carbon emissions.
- Therefore, Wentworth Williamson continues to hold a position in Woodside as part of their investment strategy.
Montgomery Investment Management
12 May 2025
$20.80
Summary
- Woodside Energy Group Ltd is Australia’s largest independent oil and gas exploration and production company.
- Share price has declined 46% since September 2023, prompting a reassessment of the company’s transformation.
- Woodside is now a 3% position in The Montgomery Fund and a 2.3% position in The Montgomery [Private] Fund.
- Despite share price declines due to falling oil prices (from US$124/barrel to US$61/barrel), Woodside is expanding into new energy initiatives.
- The company describes itself as entering a new chapter as a global energy company following its merger with BHP Petroleum in 2022.
- Woodside is focusing on becoming a global LNG and infrastructure powerhouse.
- The Louisiana LNG project, a US$17.5 billion initiative, is central to this transformation, aiming for 16.5 Mtpa production capacity by the 2030s.
- This project is expected to deliver first gas in 2029, positioning Woodside as a leader in the global LNG market.
- Woodside has partnered with Stonepeak, selling a 40% stake in Louisiana LNG Infrastructure LLC for US$5.7 billion, allowing for optimized capital allocation.
- Further sell-downs of 20-30% in the project are being explored, indicating strong interest from potential partners.
- Woodside is diversifying into new energy initiatives, particularly hydrogen, through projects like H2Perth, H2TAS, and H2OK.
- Strategic partnerships, such as with BP, enhance operational capabilities and secure natural gas supply for the Louisiana LNG project.
- Woodside’s global operations now span multiple continents, aiming to meet rising energy demand while transitioning to a lower-carbon future.
- Analyst reports reflect sell-side enthusiasm despite share price declines, viewing partnerships as signals of industry confidence.
- Environmental concerns remain, with critics highlighting potential greenhouse gas emissions from the Louisiana LNG project.
- Woodside’s ability to balance profitability, innovation, and environmental responsibility will define its legacy in the energy sector.
Tyndall Asset Management
30 Apr 2025
$20.74
Summary
- Tyndall Asset Management sold their investment in Woodside Energy (WDS) due to a decline in share price.
- The decline was aligned with falling oil futures.
- Global demand expectations were revised lower following tariff announcements.
- The exit from this position contributed positively to overall portfolio performance.
Sterling Managed Investments
30 Apr 2025
$20.74
Summary
- Sterling Managed Investments notes that Woodside Energy detracted from performance in April due to a softer oil price and concerns around global growth.
- Despite this, Woodside had a solid operational quarter with production and revenue modestly beating expectations.
- Strong output from Sangomar and disciplined project delivery across key developments like Scarborough and Louisiana LNG were highlighted.
- Woodside continues to progress high-return, long-life projects, positioning itself well for a recovery in energy markets.
- Further long-term LNG demand growth is anticipated, despite near-term commodity price pressures.
- In response to recent weakness in oil markets, Sterling Managed Investments has decided to reduce its position in Woodside Energy (WDS).
- The ongoing trade war between the United States and China raises concerns about potential further declines in oil prices.
- Oil is a volatile commodity, with historical lows seen during recessions, prompting a cautious approach to exposure.
- With the odds of a US recession increasing from 20% to 50%, Sterling Managed Investments considers it prudent to reduce exposure to oil for the time being.
Yarra Capital Management
30 Apr 2025
$20.74
Summary
- Woodside Energy (WDS) is currently rated overweight by Yarra Capital Management.
- The company underperformed recently despite a solid operational quarter.
- This underperformance is attributed to the announcement of U.S. tariffs, raising fears of a global economic slowdown.
- Woodside has lagged behind rising Oil and LNG prices and is considered undervalued by Yarra Capital Management.
- The Louisiana LNG facility, with a planned capacity of up to 27.6 Mtpa, will enhance Woodside's global LNG footprint.
- Yarra Capital Management is attracted to the company's strong growth profile from new projects that remain on budget.
- Production is scheduled to increase by more than 30% over the next two years.
BKI Investment Company
31 Mar 2025
$23.12
Summary
- Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) has diversified its global portfolio through its merger with BHP's petroleum business, now covering assets in Australia, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, Senegal, and Timor.
- WDS is committed to future growth, demonstrated by a substantial exploration program and successful project deliveries.
- The Sangomar oil development in Senegal achieved first oil production in June 2024, with a $5 billion development cost, reaching nameplate capacity in nine weeks and generating $950 million in revenue.
- Other major projects include the $12.5 billion Scarborough LNG project, currently 80% complete and on track for 2026 delivery, and the $7.2 billion Trion development, expected to produce in 2028.
- Strategic selldowns in the Scarborough project have enhanced the balance sheet, generating $2.3 billion in cash proceeds and securing long-term LNG sales agreements for over 15Mt.
- WDS has expanded its LNG presence via an acquisition in Louisiana LNG and is entering the lower-carbon ammonia market with an investment in Beaumont New Ammonia, targeting 2025 production.
- These generational projects, requiring substantial capital, are expected to yield significant long-term returns, bolstering WDS's attractive dividend yield.
- Given the cash generated from current and future assets, BKI Investment Company has been comfortable adding to the WDS position over the past couple of years.
Wentworth Williamson
31 Dec 2024
$24.60
Summary
- Woodside (WDS:ASX) is Australia’s largest oil and gas producer.
- Recent acquisitions enhance their presence in the US market.
- Asset swaps have been undertaken to simplify their portfolio.
- Wentworth Williamson believes the long-term outlook for gas is very positive.
- Gas is seen as a key component in the transition to lower carbon emissions.
Yarra Capital Management
30 Sept 2024
$25.20
Summary
- Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) – currently rated overweight by Yarra Capital Management.
- Recent underperformance attributed to a 10.1% decline in Brent Crude Oil prices, closing at US$71.7/bbl.
- Concerns raised regarding the sustainability of the 80% dividend payout ratio, particularly due to the planned acquisition of Tellurian Energy (TELL.US).
- Yarra Capital Management remains attracted by the strong growth profile, with new projects on budget and schedule.
- Expectations of production growth exceeding 30% over the next two years, contributing to double-digit free cash flow yields.
BKI Investment Company
30 Sept 2024
$25.20
Summary
- BKI Investment Company notes that WDS produced a solid but complex result.
- Operating Revenues were 19% lower than the previous corresponding period (pcp).
- The result was complicated by the sell-down of the Scarborough Joint Venture during the period, which is viewed as a positive development.
- WDS declared a fully franked interim dividend of US$0.69 (AUD$1.045) per share.
- The dividend was at the top end of the payout range and represented an annualised dividend yield of 7.3%.
The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS)?
Fund managers including Yarra Capital Management, Montgomery Investment Management, Clime Investment Management, Sterling Managed Investments, BKI Investment Company, Tyndall Asset Management, Tamim Funds Management, Pendal Group, Endeavor Asset Management, Wentworth Williamson, PM Capital, Firetrail Investments and Wilson Asset Management have invested in Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS).
Why do fund managers invest in Woodside Energy Group Ltd?
Fund managers invest in Woodside Energy Group Ltd due to its strong growth potential and diversification in the global LNG market. The company has a solid project pipeline, including the Louisiana LNG facility, enhancing its production capabilities significantly. Analysts note its strategic partnerships, notably with BP and Stonepeak, which bolster operational efficiency and cash flow visibility. Moreover, Woodside offers an attractive dividend yield, despite facing short-term challenges from fluctuating oil prices and global economic concerns. This combination presents a favorable risk/reward profile for investors.
What happened to Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS)?
Fund managers are investing in Woodside Energy Group Ltd due to its strong production performance and strategic asset management, including the positive impact of the Sangomar project and the recent partial sell-down of its Louisiana LNG asset. With a favorable risk-reward profile, low P/E ratio, and a solid dividend yield, Woodside is seen as well-positioned to benefit from an improving oil and gas market. Additionally, the company is transitioning towards generating significant free cash flow, which is expected to support robust dividends and share buybacks in the future.
What is the short interest in Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS)?
The short interest in Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS) is 3.60% which makes it the 62nd most shorted stock on the ASX. Of the 1.9B shares that Woodside Energy Group Ltd has on issue, 68.5M have been sold short.
What does Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS) do?
Woodside Energy Group Ltd. engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, and production of hydrocarbon and oil and gas properties. It operates through the following segments: North West Shelf, Pluto, Australia Oil, Wheatstone, Development, and Others. The North West Shelf segment produces liquefied natural gas, pipeline natural gas, condensate, liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil from the North West Shelf ventures. The Pluto segment develops liquefied natural gas in assigned permit areas. The Australia Oil segment is involved in the exploration, evaluation, development, production and sale of crude oil in assigned permit areas. The Wheatstone segment is involved in the exploration, evaluation, and development of liquefied natural gas, pipeline natural gas, and condensate. The Development segment includes the exploration of gas resources in Scarborough, Sangomar, and other project areas. The Other segment is composed of the activities undertaken by exploration, international and Sunrise Business Units. The company was founded on July 26, 1954 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.