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Zip Co Ltd

Zip Co Ltd

ASX:ZIP

Financials

Summary

The fund managers believe that Zip Co Ltd is positioned for growth, particularly due to its innovative payment solutions and expanding market presence. In their opinion, the company's focus on enhancing customer experience through technology is a significant strength. They highlight the potential for increased revenue streams from new partnerships and product offerings. However, there are concerns regarding competition in the fintech space, which could impact market share. The fund managers also point out that regulatory challenges may pose risks to future profitability. Overall, they maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook, suggesting that while there are opportunities for substantial returns, investors should remain aware of the inherent risks associated with the industry.

Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed. 

Source: Trading View

Commentary From The Managers

Pendal Group

26 Sept 2025

$4.35

Summary

  • Pendal Group initiated a position in Zip Co Ltd due to its strong growth potential in the buy-now-pay-later sector.
  • The fund manager appreciates Zip's transition from a troubled past to a stable Australian business and a rapidly expanding US market.
  • Zip's US operations are capital-light and highly profitable, allowing for quick capital turnover.
  • There is significant growth potential in the US buy-now-pay-later market, which remains underpenetrated compared to other OECD countries.
  • Zip targets a specific demographic that lacks access to traditional credit options, focusing on essential spending rather than discretionary purchases.
  • The fund manager notes improved credit risk management and that Zip is now self-funding, aligning with growth stock criteria.

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Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed. 

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Commentary From The Managers

Pendal Group

26 Sept 2025

$4.35

  • Pendal Group initiated a position in Zip Co Ltd due to its strong growth potential in the buy-now-pay-later sector.
  • The fund manager appreciates Zip's transition from a troubled past to a stable Australian business and a rapidly expanding US market.
  • Zip's US operations are capital-light and highly profitable, allowing for quick capital turnover.
  • There is significant growth potential in the US buy-now-pay-later market, which remains underpenetrated compared to other OECD countries.
  • Zip targets a specific demographic that lacks access to traditional credit options, focusing on essential spending rather than discretionary purchases.
  • The fund manager notes improved credit risk management and that Zip is now self-funding, aligning with growth stock criteria.

Summary

1851 Capital

12 Sept 2025

$4.51

  • Zip is a buy.
  • It is the largest position in the fund at the moment.
  • CEO Cynthia Scott has effectively cut costs and sold underperforming assets.
  • The business is refocused on the US market.
  • The US now accounts for 80% of the company's earnings.
  • Buy-now-pay-later is still in early stages in the US, representing only 2% of e-commerce sales.
  • In comparison, it is 15% in Australia.
  • Bad debts are under control.
  • TTV is growing at over 45%.
  • Recent partnerships with Google and Stripe may accelerate growth.
  • Despite recent share price gains, there is significant upside potential for Zip.

Summary

Eiger Capital

4 Sept 2025

$4.29

  • Eiger Capital believes that Zip Co has significant growth potential in the United States.
  • The company is attracting customers who prefer its features over traditional banks.
  • This customer base includes those who do not fit traditional bank criteria.
  • Growth in the gig economy is expanding this customer segment.
  • Buy now, pay later is becoming a popular choice for many consumers.
  • Zip is guiding for over 35% volume growth this financial year.
  • Increased margins are also anticipated, supporting the overall investment thesis.

Summary

Centennial Asset Management

18 July 2025

$3.05

  • Centennial Asset Management notes that Zip Co Ltd operates in a unique market, particularly in the US, where the buy now pay later industry is still developing.
  • Despite being a pioneer in this space, Centennial Asset Management acknowledges that the US market is significantly larger but currently trails behind Australia and Europe.
  • The target demographic in the US includes a notable number of individuals without credit scores, presenting both challenges and opportunities.
  • Regulatory risks are a concern, and Centennial Asset Management advises caution regarding potential changes in legislation.
  • However, Centennial Asset Management believes Zip has the potential for approximately three to four years of growth at around 30%, which is promising.

Summary

Tyndall Asset Management

30 June 2025

$3.07

  • Zip Co outperformed following a second earnings upgrade post February 2025 results.
  • Tyndall Asset Management remains attracted to the long-term structural growth potential of buy now pay later (BNPL) providers.
  • BNPL penetration in the USA is currently only a quarter of that in other developed Western markets.
  • This large addressable market positions industry leaders like Zip for double-digit growth in both topline and bottom line for years to come.

Summary

Blackwattle Investment Partners

30 June 2025

$3.07

  • Blackwattle Investment Partners notes a 54.7% surge in Zip Co following a positive trading update.
  • The upgrade to FY25 earnings guidance alleviated concerns about potential tariff uncertainties impacting growth.
  • Despite the strong rally, Zip's share price has only returned to early year levels.
  • There is meaningful upside potential through the ongoing penetration of BNPL products in the US.
  • The current market penetration in the US is only ~2%, compared to ~15% in Australia and ~20% in Europe.

Summary

QVG Capital

30 June 2025

$3.07

  • QVG Capital sees Zip as a rare investment opportunity.
  • Significant share price reduction in recent months.
  • Positive upgrade announced in early May.
  • Improvement in earnings quality noted.
  • Increased usage of Zip card for non-discretionary spending.
  • Zip has surplus capital and an active share purchase program.
  • The stock has appreciated by 70% since the early May entry.

Summary

Wilson Asset Management

30 June 2025

$3.07

  • Zip Co released a trading update in June, raising the company's FY2025 guidance.
  • Strong performance in the U.S. with total transaction value growing by over 40% year-on-year.
  • Market concerns over weakening consumer spending and potential bad U.S. debt cycle led to a sharp sell-off in March and April.
  • Wilson Asset Management viewed this sell-off as driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals and tactically added to their position.
  • In the trading update, Zip Co noted no material change to loss rates despite strong volume momentum.
  • This stability gives Zip Co the capacity to increase marketing in the U.S. and drive new customer acquisitions.
  • Wilson Asset Management continues to see upside potential due to considerable capacity for market share gains and relatively modest valuations.

Summary

Ausbil

30 June 2025

$3.07

  • Zip (ZIP) experienced a significant return of +90.7% in the June quarter following an early April sell-off.
  • The rebound was driven by a bullish broker initiation report and strong consumer data from the US.
  • A strong trading update indicated momentum in TTV growth in both Australia and the US.
  • The backdrop for bad debt remains benign, supporting positive investor sentiment.
  • US TTV growth surpassed +40%, exceeding consensus expectations.
  • While the FY26 outlook is polarizing, Ausbil continues to see material upside to consensus forecasts.
  • Ausbil expects outperformance to continue in the future.

Summary

Pendal Group

30 June 2025

$3.07

  • Pendal Group maintains an underweight position in Zip Co Ltd (ZIP, +54.7%).
  • Zip has recently experienced a bounce back from previous weaknesses.
  • The company upgraded cash EBITDA guidance for FY25.
  • Total transaction volume for Zip has continued to grow, exceeding 40% year-on-year.
  • This growth occurs despite market concerns regarding a slowing US economy.
  • Potential impacts of tariffs are also noted as a concern in the market.

Summary

DS Capital

30 June 2025

Unknown

  • DS Capital notes that the share price of ZIP has doubled over the past year, reflecting significant operational progress.
  • During the year, ZIP announced two earnings upgrades and a $50m share buyback.
  • ZIP is expected to more than double earnings from the previous year.
  • The performance of the Australian business has exceeded expectations, while the US business remains a key growth driver.
  • Transaction volumes in the US have grown by over 30%.
  • Despite a challenging macro environment, ZIP's cohort has shown resilience, with increased spending and fulfillment of obligations.
  • Continued penetration in the large US market is anticipated to drive strong revenue growth.
  • Disciplined cost management and controlled delinquencies are expected to yield impressive earnings growth.

Summary

Centennial Asset Management

6 June 2025

$2.19

  • Centennial Asset Management believes Zip has the potential to rally in the short term.
  • Zip is well positioned to deliver further strong growth in revenues and profitability.
  • The US buy now, pay later market remains relatively immature, allowing Zip’s US footprint to grow rapidly.
  • New product launches are expected to contribute to the company’s transaction volumes and earnings growth in the coming year.
  • Zip’s balance sheet strength and ongoing buyback are expected to support share price performance.
  • Zip has surprised the market with better-than-expected earnings over the past year.
  • The company has upgraded expectations post the most recent quarter, indicating potential for additional upside earnings risk.

Summary

Ausbil

30 May 2025

$1.99

  • Centennial Asset Management believes Zip has the potential to rally in the short term.
  • Zip is well positioned to deliver further strong growth in revenues and profitability.
  • The US buy now, pay later market remains relatively immature, allowing Zip’s US footprint to grow rapidly.
  • New product launches are expected to contribute to the company’s transaction volumes and earnings growth in the coming year.
  • Zip’s balance sheet strength and ongoing buyback are expected to support share price performance.
  • Zip has surprised the market with better-than-expected earnings over the past year.
  • The company has upgraded expectations post the most recent quarter, indicating potential for additional upside earnings risk.

Summary

Wilson Asset Management

30 Apr 2025

$1.73

  • Zip Co Ltd reported a strong FY2025 third quarter result.
  • EBTDA increased by 219.4% year-on-year to $46.0 million.
  • FY2025 guidance has been upgraded.
  • The share price responded positively due to a broader market recovery.
  • This recovery was influenced by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs.
  • Wilson Asset Management continues to see strong momentum in Zip Co’s business for the remainder of the year.

Summary

Endeavor Asset Management

30 Apr 2025

$1.73

  • Endeavor Asset Management notes that Zip Co (ZIP) reported a strong quarterly result for the period ending 31 March 2025.
  • Shares rose 7.5% in April following this performance.
  • Cash EBTDA increased from $35 million to $46 million, benefiting from improved revenue margins.
  • The upgrade to FY25 guidance was a significant factor in the share price increase, particularly amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
  • Endeavor believes that the guidance remains conservative, allowing Zip to absorb external volatility.
  • Zip aims for a revised target of at least $153 million in Cash EBTDA.

Summary

Ten Cap

30 Apr 2025

$1.73

  • Ten Cap increased their position in Zip Co Ltd after a significant sell-off in March, where the stock fell 63%.
  • The stock was seen as oversold relative to a bear case US growth outcome.
  • There is an expectation of a strong quarterly result for Zip Co.
  • Solid organic growth opportunities are anticipated for Zip Co moving forward.
  • Ten Cap remains cautious as economic data momentum is softening.
  • The stock's performance is influenced by market sentiment.

Summary

DS Capital

31 Mar 2025

$1.61

  • Consumer finance provider
  • Zip Co reported a very strong H1 result delivering cash earnings of $67m for the half
  • Most of the earnings are now coming from the US that grew transaction volumes by 40%
  • Strong earnings guidance of $147m for the full year implies continuing acceleration
  • The guidance is based off a more conservative US 30% growth rate despite confirming growth remains closer to 40%
  • At current levels, Zip is attractively priced on a risk/reward basis, trading at around 12 times cash earnings

Summary

Ausbil

31 Mar 2025

$1.85

  • Centennial Asset Management believes Zip has the potential to rally in the short term.
  • Zip is well positioned to deliver further strong growth in revenues and profitability.
  • The US buy now, pay later market remains relatively immature, allowing Zip’s US footprint to grow rapidly.
  • New product launches are expected to contribute to the company’s transaction volumes and earnings growth in the coming year.
  • Zip’s balance sheet strength and ongoing buyback are expected to support share price performance.
  • Zip has surprised the market with better-than-expected earnings over the past year.
  • The company has upgraded expectations post the most recent quarter, indicating potential for additional upside earnings risk.

Summary

Tyndall Asset Management

31 Mar 2025

$1.61

  • Zip Co (ZIP) underperformed for the month due to concerns about the US economy and potential recession.
  • Despite soft macroeconomic data in the USA, ZIP continues to execute extremely well.
  • Recent interactions with management indicate that the company is tracking at least inline with its upgraded guidance from February results.
  • Tyndall Asset Management believes that if the USA avoids a recession, ZIP will present an outstanding opportunity for investors willing to accept macroeconomic risks.

Summary

Blackwattle Investment Partners

31 Mar 2025

$1.61

  • Blackwattle Investment Partners notes a 34.6% decline in Zip Co due to rising recession expectations in the U.S.
  • U.S. BNPL penetration is currently only ~2%, indicating significant growth potential compared to ~15% in Australia and ~20% in Europe.
  • Concerns regarding bad debts are considered misplaced as BNPL credit turnover occurs approximately every 28 days.
  • Zip Co is trading at 16x FY25f P/E with a large total addressable market (TAM) and favorable structural tailwinds.
  • The stock is viewed as one of the most compelling valuation opportunities on the ASX.
  • Short-term challenges are linked to negative market sentiment regarding tariffs and the U.S. consumer.
  • Blackwattle Investment Partners emphasizes the need for greater certainty on the U.S. economic outlook for Zip Co to regain positive momentum.

Summary

Endeavor Asset Management

31 Mar 2025

$1.61

  • Zip Co (ZIP) detracted from performance in March due to ongoing market volatility and rising economic uncertainty.
  • Despite these headwinds, the company is trading at less than 8x FY25e Cash EBTDA, significantly below historical averages and peers.
  • Fundamentals remain strong, with Zip continuing to generate positive cash flow and holding a robust balance sheet.
  • While the operating environment is challenging, Endeavor Asset Management views recent weakness as an opportunity to modestly increase their position.
  • This is considered a deeply discounted valuation by the fund manager.

Summary

Ten Cap

31 Mar 2025

$1.61

  • ZIP's recent performance has been adversely affected by declining US consumer sentiment.
  • This led to indiscriminate selling pressure and limited liquidity for buyers.
  • Ten Cap has opportunistically reduced exposure to ZIP.
  • However, Ten Cap maintains a positive outlook on the business model.
  • They are actively monitoring data that could support an increase in position sizing.

Summary

Clime Investment Management

31 Jan 2025

$2.44

  • Clime updates its investment thesis on Zip Co Ltd (ZIP.ASX).
  • Zip Co has seen a recent decline, impacting returns.
  • The move of founder Larry Diamond to an advisory role introduces near-term uncertainty.
  • Despite this, Zip Co remains well-positioned in the US buy now, pay later market.
  • The company has experienced explosive growth in this sector.
  • Clime continues to hold Zip Co due to its market positioning and growth potential.

Summary

Blackwattle Investment Partners

31 Jan 2025

$2.44

  • Zip Co fell 17.6% in January due to disappointing December quarterly update.
  • Blackwattle Investment Partners remains attracted to the huge opportunity in the US, reporting 39% TTV growth and increasing active customer numbers.
  • Net bad debts are below expectations at only 1.5%.
  • The business generated $35m in Cash EBTDA for the quarter, representing a 50% increase on the prior corresponding period (pcp).
  • The market's disappointment focused on a rise in opex and a decline in revenue margin.
  • However, the company reaffirmed existing opex growth guidance for the year.
  • December quarter margins are typically lower due to high holiday season TTV, with revenue being booked in the following half.
  • The strong growth outlook for Zip has not changed.
  • Currently, the company trades on only 25x FY26e P/E with over 40% EPS growth.
  • Blackwattle Investment Partners has used the weakness to add to their position.

Summary

Ellerston Capital

31 Jan 2025

$2.44

  • Ellerston Capital notes that ZIP Co (ZIP AU) faced a challenging month, with an 18% decline in share price.
  • The decline followed a disappointing December quarter trading update that did not meet market expectations.
  • While ZIP's numbers were commendable on a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year basis, consensus expectations were overly optimistic.
  • There was a significant gap between cash EBITDA levels and buy-side expectations versus actual results.
  • Ellerston Capital believed the market would adjust stale consensus numbers and overlook seasonal operational expenses.
  • This assumption proved to be incorrect, leading to a material decrease in their position post quarterly results.
  • The fund manager plans to re-examine their view following the upcoming results.

Summary

Tyndall Asset Management

31 Jan 2025

$2.44

  • ZIP Co (ZIP) has underperformed following the 2Q25 update.
  • Tyndall Asset Management notes an accelerated spend aimed at driving market share gains in the US.
  • The fund manager believes the $1 billion market value erosion does not equate to the $5 million cost pull forward.
  • Tyndall Asset Management continues to hold its position due to the long-term potential of ZIP Co.
  • Further details on the investment thesis are provided to support ongoing confidence in the company.

Summary

Ausbil

31 Jan 2025

$2.44

  • Centennial Asset Management believes Zip has the potential to rally in the short term.
  • Zip is well positioned to deliver further strong growth in revenues and profitability.
  • The US buy now, pay later market remains relatively immature, allowing Zip’s US footprint to grow rapidly.
  • New product launches are expected to contribute to the company’s transaction volumes and earnings growth in the coming year.
  • Zip’s balance sheet strength and ongoing buyback are expected to support share price performance.
  • Zip has surprised the market with better-than-expected earnings over the past year.
  • The company has upgraded expectations post the most recent quarter, indicating potential for additional upside earnings risk.

Summary

QVG Capital

31 Jan 2025

$2.44

  • QVG Capital notes that ZIP was down 25% following its 2nd Quarter update, despite the update being generally positive.
  • The decline in share price is attributed more to market positioning and elevated expectations than to the actual performance of the business.
  • There are contrasting views on holding a stock like ZIP, with some seeing it as a poor decision at current prices and others recognizing early identification of the investment opportunity.
  • QVG Capital emphasizes active management of the position, illustrated by strategic buying and selling decisions.
  • The firm remains focused on valuation, having reduced their position size as momentum pushed the stock beyond fair value.
  • QVG Capital aims for a balanced approach to maximize exit prices while mitigating risks from potential negative catalysts.

Summary

Glennon Small Companies

31 Jan 2025

$2.44

  • Glennon Small Companies acknowledges that Zip Co's recent results met expectations.
  • However, costs were higher than market expectations.
  • The US market performance remains strong, indicating potential for continued success.
  • Despite the positive outlook, share recovery may take time as costs will be closely monitored.
  • Investors are advised to watch the full-year results for further insights.

Summary

Centennial Asset Management

13 Jan 2025

$2.94

  • Centennial Asset Management believes Zip has the potential to rally in the short term.
  • Zip is well positioned to deliver further strong growth in revenues and profitability.
  • The US buy now, pay later market remains relatively immature, allowing Zip’s US footprint to grow rapidly.
  • New product launches are expected to contribute to the company’s transaction volumes and earnings growth in the coming year.
  • Zip’s balance sheet strength and ongoing buyback are expected to support share price performance.
  • Zip has surprised the market with better-than-expected earnings over the past year.
  • The company has upgraded expectations post the most recent quarter, indicating potential for additional upside earnings risk.

Summary

Clime Investment Management

31 Dec 2024

$2.96

  • ZIP underperformed in December, with its share price falling 13.5% after a strong rally to a 2-year high of $3.50.
  • Weakness in key US markets and broader negative sentiment toward the buy now, pay later (BNPL) sector contributed to the pullback.
  • Investors took a break from recent gains, impacting the share price.
  • Despite this, ZIP remains well-positioned supported by consistent double-digit top-line growth.
  • Low bad debts reflect strong operational profitability.
  • Clime continues to hold because of ZIP's potential for recovery and sustained growth.

Summary

Wilson Asset Management

31 Oct 2024

$3.02

  • Zip Co’s share price has more than doubled over the past six months.
  • Outperformance driven by Zip Co’s US business, which continues to gain market share.
  • Strong quarterly earnings reported, with the US business beating expectations and up 43% for the quarter.
  • Processed $2.8 billion in transactions over the September quarter, up 22.8% year-on-year.
  • Potential beneficiary of interest rate cuts in Australia, likely improving consumer sentiment, spending, and credit quality.
  • Continued strong momentum in the business, with potential for further earnings upgrades throughout the year.

Summary

Clime Investment Management

31 Oct 2024

$3.02

  • Clime Investment Management trimmed their position in ZIP in September.
  • This decision followed strong share price performance after the US Fed's surprise 0.50% rate cut.
  • The potential for further rate cuts may provide a tailwind for ZIP’s margins in the future.
  • Lower interest rate costs are expected on product lines.
  • With the stock rallying, Clime Investment Management saw an opportunity to lock in gains.
  • Despite trimming their position, they continue to maintain exposure to the company's growth potential.

Summary

Ausbil

31 Oct 2024

$3.02

  • Centennial Asset Management believes Zip has the potential to rally in the short term.
  • Zip is well positioned to deliver further strong growth in revenues and profitability.
  • The US buy now, pay later market remains relatively immature, allowing Zip’s US footprint to grow rapidly.
  • New product launches are expected to contribute to the company’s transaction volumes and earnings growth in the coming year.
  • Zip’s balance sheet strength and ongoing buyback are expected to support share price performance.
  • Zip has surprised the market with better-than-expected earnings over the past year.
  • The company has upgraded expectations post the most recent quarter, indicating potential for additional upside earnings risk.

Summary

Clime Investment Management

30 Sept 2024

$2.75

  • Clime Investment Management trimmed their position in Zip in September.
  • The decision followed a strong share price performance due to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s surprise 50bps rate cut.
  • This rate cut indicates potential for further cuts, which may benefit Zip’s margins.
  • Lower interest rates could reduce costs across Zip’s product lines.
  • With the stock rallying, Clime Investment Management saw an opportunity to lock in gains.
  • They continue to maintain exposure to Zip’s growth potential.

Summary

DS Capital

30 Sept 2024

$2.75

  • DS Capital reinvested in Zip Co, having previously held the stock in 2020.
  • The investment decision follows a substantial change in both the business and its valuation.
  • Continuous monitoring of businesses allows for timely investment opportunities.
  • Engagement with the new management team has been ongoing since last year.
  • The management has streamlined the product offering and restructured the balance sheet.
  • Recent results show significant improvement, particularly in the US market.
  • Zip's US business has tripled earnings compared to the last comparative period.
  • Currently holds less than 4% market share in the US but is expected to outpace sector growth rates.

Summary

Ausbil

30 Sept 2024

$2.75

  • ZIP Co (ZIP) experienced significant growth, rising +88.4% in the quarter.
  • The initiation of a rate easing cycle in the US acted as a catalyst for this performance.
  • Comparative metrics heading into 2024 appear favorable for ZIP, suggesting easier comparisons.
  • There is potential for further expansion of the merchant and payment ecosystem in the US, alongside existing partnerships such as Stripe.
  • This growth supports the prospect of transactional value (TTV) upside and improved unit economics.
  • Overall, a stronger consumer backdrop may contribute to better bad debt performance.
  • Ausbil continues to see upside to consensus forward estimates.

Summary

Endeavor Asset Management

30 Sept 2024

$2.75

  • Endeavor Asset Management sold their investment in ZIP Co (ZIP) after a successful tenure.
  • The investment was initially purchased at $0.41 in December 2023.
  • Full exit occurred at $2.66 in September 2024.
  • This exit showcased Endeavor Asset Management's capability to identify and capitalise on undervalued opportunities.
  • The focus has been on sectors such as tech and fintech.
  • Currently, Endeavor is seeking the next opportunity for outsized gains in areas with structural tailwinds.

Summary

Endeavor Asset Management

31 Aug 2024

$2.30

  • Endeavor Asset Management notes that Zip Co (ZIP) shares rose by 26% in August, marking it as the top contributor for the month.
  • The company has delivered strong financial results and has brought forward its medium-term growth targets.
  • Consensus estimates for FY25 EBITDA were revised up by 16%, indicating a positive market outlook.
  • Endeavor Asset Management maintains that these projections are conservative.
  • Even with zero TTV growth, the mid-point of company guidance suggests cash EBTDA of approximately $150 million, compared to the consensus EBITDA estimate of $116 million.
  • During the month, Endeavor Asset Management took some profits at an average of $2.18/sh.

Summary

Ausbil

31 Aug 2024

$2.30

  • Ausbil reports a +26.6% return for ZIP (ZIP) for the month.
  • Strong growth outlook in the US market, particularly in the Buy Now Pay Later segment.
  • US expansion is showing significant momentum.
  • New product development and an extended partnership with Stripe are expected to enhance transaction growth.
  • A more rational market structure and disciplined risk management are in place.
  • Revamped capital structure supports sustained, profitable growth.

Summary

Milford Asset Management

31 Aug 2024

$2.30

  • Milford Asset Management acknowledges the positive momentum in Zip (+25.7%), driven by the recovery of the ‘Buy Now Pay Later’ sector.
  • There is a notable resurgence in interest from US consumers, contributing to growth.
  • Zip has upgraded its medium-term profitability targets, reflecting strong execution in its operations.
  • The key opportunity lies in the under-penetrated US consumer credit landscape, which remains a focal point for growth.

Summary

Blackwattle Investment Partners

31 Aug 2024

$2.30

  • Blackwattle Investment Partners notes a 26% increase in Zip Co’s stock price this month.
  • Zip’s successful $267m capital raise in July has helped to remove corporate debt.
  • The company is on a journey of improving quality and has faced reduced industry competition.
  • Zip has experienced strong growth in the US, with a 47% revenue increase year-on-year.
  • Retail partner validation has improved with integrations with Google Pay and Stripe.
  • Zip is currently achieving a run-rate of over $100m in annualized EBITDA and has positive cash flow.
  • The company has a clean balance sheet further supporting its growth prospects.
  • There remains a significant growth opportunity in the US for Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) services, with current penetration at only 2%.
  • This contrasts with penetration rates of ~15% in Australia and ~20% in Europe.

Summary

Clime Investment Management

31 Aug 2024

$2.30

  • ZIP contributed positively to portfolio performance in August, ranking as one of the top performers in the index.
  • The company’s FY24 results showed continued strength, especially in the US market, with significant growth in usage and transaction volumes.
  • ZIP’s focus on profitability is paying off, with both US and ANZ divisions generating positive cash earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).
  • The growth in the US is particularly encouraging, outpacing sector trends, with management confident in sustaining this momentum.
  • With a solid balance sheet and clear strategic focus, ZIP is well-positioned for further gains.
  • Following a successful capital raise, the market reacted positively, with the final tranche of corporate debt repaid and ZIP’s share price rising over 20% above the capital raise price.
  • Clime Investment Management has taken some profit, as the company is trading closer to full value.

Summary

Clime Investment Management

31 July 2024

$1.91

  • Clime Investment Management notes a positive market reaction following a successful capital raise.
  • ZIP's share price increased over 20% above the capital raise price.
  • Some profit has been taken as the share price approaches full value.
  • ZIP reported unaudited results for the last quarter, with revenue and cash EBITDA showing year-on-year growth.
  • The company exceeded its own guidance in the latest results.
  • ZIP completed a capital raise of $217 million through institutional placement and $50 million via SPP to eliminate final corporate debt.
  • The capital raise is accretive to earnings per share (EPS) and reduces future execution risk.
  • The market responded positively, with a return of 30.8% for ZIP in July.

Summary

Ellerston Capital

31 July 2024

$1.91

  • ZIP continued its strong momentum, with an increase of almost 30% this month.
  • Strong quarterly trading update contributed to the positive performance.
  • Inclusion in the ASX200 and a well-received capital raise boosted investor confidence.
  • Company indicated 4Q24 cash EBITDA likely to be $22-25m.
  • Full year guidance upgraded to between $67-70m.
  • Reflects ongoing strength in North America, healthy transaction margins, and operating leverage.
  • Launched a capital raise to repay a costly $150m debt facility.
  • Capital raise was well supported by the market, improving balance sheet conditions.
  • Balance sheet now in pristine condition after a major cleanup operation.
  • Market upgraded FY25 EBITDA estimates by over 40% on average.
  • Ellerston Capital believes this momentum is sustainable.
  • The stock remains a key position in the portfolio.

Summary

Blackwattle Investment Partners

31 July 2024

$1.91

  • Blackwattle Investment Partners notes that Zip Co rose 30.8% following the June Quarterly update.
  • The update featured continued outperformance from the company.
  • Zip announced a $267m capital raise aimed at eliminating corporate debt.
  • The company is on a journey of improving quality amid reduced industry competition.
  • Strong growth in the US market was highlighted, with 4Q24 Revenue up 47% compared to the previous year.
  • Retail partner validation includes agreements with Best Buy and Google Pay in the US.
  • This progress is underpinned by a $100m annualized EBITDA run-rate, positive cash flow, and a clean balance sheet.
  • Blackwattle Investment Partners continues to hold interest in Zip Co due to these positive developments.

Summary

Endeavor Asset Management

31 July 2024

$1.91

  • Endeavor Asset Management notes that Zip Co (ZIP) has seen a significant increase of 31% over the month.
  • The quarterly report indicated strong performance with FY24 underlying cash EBITDA expected to be $77-80 million, a remarkable turnaround of over $125 million compared to FY23.
  • Zip is actively optimizing its capital structure through a $267 million equity raising at a price of $1.57 per share.
  • This capital raise is anticipated to save the company $23 million in interest costs, thereby enhancing the bottom-line margin.
  • Zip closed the month at $1.91 per share, reflecting a 22% increase from the price of the capital raise.

Summary

Endeavor Asset Management

30 June 2024

$1.44

  • Endeavor Asset Management notes a 28% increase in Zip's share price in June, indicating improved market confidence.
  • The increase reflects a belief in ongoing earnings growth and continued upgrades throughout FY25.
  • Estimates suggest Zip will be included in the ASX 200 Index at the next rebalancing, leading to passive fund purchases.
  • A positive quarterly update is expected in the coming weeks.

Summary

Clime Investment Management

31 Mar 2024

$1.28

  • Clime Investment Management highlights that ZIP has sustained its momentum in March.
  • US economic data shows resilience, supporting the buy now, pay later (BNPL) sector's growth.
  • ZIP is capturing an increasing share of consumer payment methods.
  • Recent results have defied market expectations, indicating a positive shift in profitability.
  • This trajectory is expected to positively influence share price performance, particularly after a subdued period from 2022 to 2023.

Summary

Endeavor Asset Management

31 Mar 2024

$1.28

  • Zip Co was a top performer for the fourth month in a row.
  • The stock increased 45% in March.
  • The total return since Endeavor Asset Management's entry in December is 240%.
  • Despite taking profits along the way, there remains significant upside potential in the share price.
  • For more details, refer to Endeavor Asset Management's past three newsletters and video updates.
  • Looking forward to the next earnings update in April.

Summary

Endeavor Asset Management

28 Feb 2024

$0.91

  • Endeavor Asset Management notes a 28% increase in the ZIP share price in February, totaling a 134% return since the initial investment in December.
  • Initial views on ZIP were skeptical, deeming it overvalued and dependent on low interest rates, but there has been a significant transformation in the last two years.
  • Key improvements include: exiting non-core markets, launching new products, cutting operational expenses, and enhancing unit economics.
  • ZIP achieved cash profitability and is set for strong earnings growth.
  • Highlights from the first half of 2024 include impressive growth in the U.S., improved net interest margins, and enhanced cash leverage.
  • Notable metrics include a cash EBTDA of $31 million, reflecting a $60 million year-over-year increase.
  • Continued growth prospects are supported by higher margins in ANZ, leading transaction volumes in the USA, stringent cost control, and a favorable environment for transaction volume growth in the U.S.
  • Additional positive factors: the Klarna IPO, peer margin upgrades, substantial cash EBTDA visibility, and a potential $7 million boost for every 25bps cut in interest rates.
  • Market DCF valuations, based on conservative estimates, approach $2/sh.
  • ZIP retains a high weighting in the portfolio, despite profit-taking during the month.

Summary

Endeavor Asset Management

31 Jan 2024

$0.75

  • Endeavor Asset Management highlights that ZIP Co (ZIP) rallied 50% in January, becoming a top contributor to performance.
  • The firm commenced buying ZIP stock at $0.41/sh after conducting internal research and engaging with management and analysts.
  • Endeavor Asset Management previously considered ZIP as overvalued and low quality, relying heavily on low interest rates.
  • Significant changes include a management refocus on profitable growth through exiting non-core markets.
  • ZIP has launched new products, reduced operational expenses, and improved unit economics.
  • The company has announced cash profitability and is projected to achieve strong earnings growth.
  • During its turnaround, the ZIP share price saw a significant decline of 98% from nearly a $9 billion market cap.
  • Endeavor Asset Management's average entry price for ZIP is $0.47/sh, correlating with a market cap of approximately $436 million.
  • The valuation target set by Endeavor Asset Management is significantly higher, though it remains confidential for now.

Summary

Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed. 

Frequently Asked Questions

Who has invested in Zip Co Ltd (ASX:ZIP)?

Fund managers including Endeavor Asset Management, Clime Investment Management, Blackwattle Investment Partners, Ten Cap, Milford Asset Management, Centennial Asset Management, Ausbil, DS Capital, QVG Capital, Pendal Group, Wilson Asset Management, Ellerston Capital, Glennon Small Companies, Eiger Capital, Tyndall Asset Management and 1851 Capital have invested in Zip Co Ltd (ASX:ZIP).

Why have investment managers invested in Zip Co Ltd (ASX:ZIP)?

Fund managers are investing in Zip Co Ltd due to its significant transformation and strong growth potential, particularly in the U.S. buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) market. After a substantial decline in share price, Zip has refocused on profitable growth by exiting non-core markets, launching new products, and improving operational efficiencies. This strategic shift has led to cash profitability and strong earnings growth projections, positioning Zip as a market leader in a rapidly expanding sector. Fund managers highlight the company's impressive performance metrics, including increased transaction volumes and low bad debt rates, as well as a favorable outlook for continued expansion in the U.S. The potential for further market penetration, especially considering BNPL's low current adoption in the U.S., adds to their bullish sentiment. Overall, Zip Co is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity with significant upside potential in a growing market.

What happened to Zip Co Ltd (ASX:ZIP)?

In September 2025, fund managers expressed strong support for Zip Co Ltd, highlighting its significant growth potential in the buy-now-pay-later sector, particularly in the U.S. Eiger Capital noted that Zip Co, trading around $4.29, is attracting customers seeking alternatives to traditional banks, with expectations of over 35% volume growth this financial year. Pendal Group, with shares at approximately $4.35, emphasized Zip's strategic transformation and its niche appeal in the U.S. market, where buy-now-pay-later remains underpenetrated. Meanwhile, 1851 Capital, valuing shares at $4.51, praised CEO Cynthia Scott for refocusing the company on the U.S., where 80% of earnings now originate, and highlighted the potential for accelerated growth through recent partnerships with Google and Stripe. Overall, these insights underscore Zip Co's promising trajectory in the evolving financial landscape.

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