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Fund Manager Summary on COG Financial Services Ltd (ASX:COG)
COG Financial Services Ltd (ASX: COG) is currently undergoing significant strategic realignment under a refreshed board, led by experienced directors Tony Robinson and John Dwyer, fostering optimism among fund managers. The recent divestment of non-core assets has generated around $25 million in cash and positions COG to refocus on its core businesses of Finance Broking & Aggregation and Novated Leasing, which has seen robust growth, particularly a 50% increase in Novated Leasing year-over-year. However, risks remain, notably from potential market pressures due to higher interest rates affecting margins and previous subpar execution in expanding its insurance broking segment. Fund managers see strong potential for EPS growth through organic initiatives and a cautious push for strategic acquisitions, particularly in the insurance brokerage arena. Overall, as COG simplifies its structure and leverages its market position, fund managers anticipate a positive rerating of its shares.
Commentary From The Managers
There are 21 insights from 6 fund managers regarding their investment in COG Financial Services Ltd (ASX:COG) available on Thesis Tracker.
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Updates are made available to members within 12 hours of being released. The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Naos Asset Management
30 Nov 2025
$2.12
Summary
- Investment update: Naos Asset Management updates its investment thesis on COG Financial Services, reflecting recent operational and market developments.
- Market leadership: COG is Australia’s leading aggregator of finance brokers and equipment leasing services to SMEs, providing a dominant position in its niche.
- Diversified business model: Operations span three complementary divisions—Finance Broking & Aggregation, Lending & Funds Management, and Novated Leasing—broadening revenue streams and client touchpoints.
- SME focus: The company’s core customer base is small and medium-sized enterprises nationwide, aligning COG with the asset finance needs of this segment.
- Scale and growth: As at FY25, COG held approximately a 25% market share of the Australian asset finance broking market, indicating continued growth of its national network.
- Network advantage: A large, national broker network supports distribution, deal flow and potential operating leverage as volumes increase.
- Thesis rationale and position: Naos Asset Management continues to hold COG because it views the company’s market share, diversified divisions and scalable national network as core drivers of long‑term value; this is an update of the fund manager’s view and not financial advice.
Wilson Asset Management
7 Nov 2025
$2.39
Summary
- Wilson Asset Management continues to hold a positive outlook on COG Financial Services Ltd.
- The management team has a successful track record, notably with PSC Insurance, which grew from $1 to $8.
- Strong opportunities for earnings growth are anticipated, projected at high single-digit to low double-digit rates.
- There is potential for further acquisitions in the fleet management space, which remains under-consolidated.
- The stock is currently valued at 13.5 times earnings, indicating attractive growth prospects.
- Overall, COG Financial Services Ltd. is viewed as a promising investment opportunity.
Sandon Capital
31 Oct 2025
$2.32
Summary
- Sandon Capital updates its investment thesis on COG Financial Services Ltd.
- COG has announced the acquisition of an additional 14.1% in Fleet Network Pty Ltd for $23.9 million.
- This acquisition represents an FY25 multiple of ~6.1x.
- Fleet Network is an existing subsidiary under the Paywise salary packaging and novated leasing platform.
- Post-acquisition, COG will own 92.4% of Fleet Network, with management holding the remaining 7.6%.
- COG also announced a $20 million capital raising via a placement at $2 per share.
- Sandon Capital views the acquisition and capital raising as a sensible, low risk strategy for COG to grow its business inorganically.
Glennon Small Companies
31 Oct 2025
$2.32
Summary
- Glennon Small Companies notes a rise in share price after the FY25 quarterly update.
- The update revealed stronger-than-expected loan origination volumes.
- There was significant growth in recurring fee income.
- Investor confidence increased due to guidance on well-controlled operating costs.
- This control supports margins moving forward.
Naos Asset Management
30 Sept 2025
$2.17
Summary
- COG maintained strong momentum in Q1 FY26, completing two acquisitions.
- Acquired Easifleet for $40 million, funded by cash reserves and debt facilities.
- Funding supported by capital recycled from the sale of non-core stakes in Centrepoint Alliance and Earlypay Ltd.
- Acquisition price reflects a pre-tax multiple of ~5x FY26 earnings post-synergies.
- Key benefits of the Easifleet acquisition:
- Strengthens COG’s East Coast presence, balancing its West Coast-focused client base.
- Grants access to government panels, enabling novated leasing for public sector employees.
- COG raised $20 million through a placement to buy a 14.1% stake in Fleet Network.
- This move supports the board’s aim to streamline operations and reduce minority earnings dilution.
- COG is doubling down on its exposure to novated leasing services.
- Potential for COG to gain market share beyond system growth.
- Increased corporate activity in the industry, with private equity interest noted.
- COG’s share price surged ~170% since early CY25, reflecting strong underlying earnings.
- Two major catalysts could drive significant value:
- Potential sale of Westlawn Financial to simplify financial structure.
- Strategic push to expand the insurance broking business.
Wilson Asset Management
30 Sept 2025
$2.17
Summary
- COG Financial Services (COG) is recognized as Australia’s largest aggregator of finance brokers and equipment leasing businesses.
- The company experienced positive gains in September, attributed to contract wins and momentum driven by results.
- On 3 September 2025, COG announced a $40 million acquisition of EasiFleet, enhancing its salary packaging and novated leasing capabilities.
- This acquisition aligns with COG’s growth plan by expanding scale and geographic reach in novated leasing.
- COG has shown consistent growth in novated leasing, with FY2025 revenue up 22% compared to the previous year.
- Investor focus remains on FY2025 results, supported by an updated presentation and rising institutional investor interest.
- Despite cyclical factors affecting recent earnings, Wilson Asset Management continues to see long-term upside as management implements a focused strategy.
- The upcoming annual general meeting on 6 November 2025 is anticipated as a potential catalyst for further developments.
Glennon Small Companies
30 Sept 2025
$2.17
Summary
- COG Financial Services Limited (ASX: COG) experienced a 31.57% increase in share price during September.
- A significant factor was insider buying, with director John Dwyer purchasing 250,000 shares at approximately $1.88 each on 3 September.
- The company was added to the S&P/ASX Emerging Companies Index on 21 September, attracting interest from index-tracking funds.
- Investor sentiment has been positively influenced by COG’s involvement in growth areas such as asset finance broking, aggregation, lending, and novated leasing.
- These factors have collectively enhanced COG's profile and contributed to its strong share price momentum throughout the month.
- Glennon Small Companies continues to hold because of these positive developments and their potential impact on future performance.
Sandon Capital
30 Sept 2025
$2.17
Summary
- COG Financial Services Ltd announced the acquisition of EasiFleet Pty Ltd for $40 million via its salary packaging subsidiary, Paywise.
- This acquisition provides Paywise with contracts across Western Australia, Northern Territory, Tasmania, Queensland, and ACT governments.
- Paywise is strongly positioned for upcoming NSW and Victorian Government tenders.
- COG has capacity for further acquisitions due to its net cash position and headroom under its acquisition finance facility.
- Sandon Capital continues to hold due to these strategic developments enhancing Paywise's market position.
Naos Asset Management
30 June 2025
$1.60
Summary
- COG Financial Services Ltd is focusing on simplifying operations and enhancing returns on investor capital.
- Significant progress has been made with the sale of two non-core assets, generating approximately $25 million in cash.
- The divested assets include minority stakes in Earlypay Ltd and Centrepoint Alliance Ltd, which were not integral to COG’s growth strategy.
- Post-divestments, the focus will shift to the divestment of the Westlawn Debenture/Leasing Business, which adds complexity to COG's operations.
- Divesting Westlawn could streamline operations and enhance transparency, potentially uplifting COG’s valuation by 2–3 P/E multiple points.
- COG's revamped insurance broking structure is expected to enhance this segment, with potential EBIT growth from $3 million to $20 million by capturing insurance opportunities from existing financing deals.
- COG is cautiously resuming its inorganic growth strategy over the next 12 months, focusing on manageable acquisitions that complement its core operations.
- The share price is rallying, indicating a shift from a depressed valuation to a more reasonable one.
- Future growth will depend on the resumption of earnings per share (EPS) growth through both organic and inorganic means.
- Upcoming FY25 results will provide insights into COG’s plans for expanding its insurance division and simplifying its structure.
Sandon Capital
31 May 2025
$1.50
Summary
- Sandon Capital announced the sale of its stakes in Earlypay Ltd (EPY) and Centrepoint Alliance Ltd (CAF).
- The total proceeds from the sales exceeded $26 million.
- At the recent Annual General Meeting, the company indicated a desire to realise non-core assets.
- This sale concludes Sandon Capital's strategy to diversify into Financial Advisory.
- The focus moving forward will be on core Broking & Aggregation and Novated Leasing businesses.
- The capital from the sale will support further inorganic growth in these core segments.
Sandon Capital
30 Apr 2025
$1.42
Summary
- Sandon Capital highlights strong unaudited trading results for 3QFY25.
- Underlying NPATA to shareholders increased by 9.4% compared to the prior corresponding period.
- The Novated Leasing business was a standout performer, growing by more than 50% against the pcp.
- This growth in Novated Leasing offset the softer performance from the Finance Broking & Aggregation business.
- Encouraging signs as the Asset Management & Lending business is experiencing growth again after a period of margin compression.
Centennial Asset Management
23 Apr 2025
$1.39
Summary
- Centennial Asset Management believes Zip has the potential to rally in the short term.
- Zip is well positioned to deliver further strong growth in revenues and profitability.
- The US buy now, pay later market remains relatively immature, allowing Zip’s US footprint to grow rapidly.
- New product launches are expected to contribute to the company’s transaction volumes and earnings growth in the coming year.
- Zip’s balance sheet strength and ongoing buyback are expected to support share price performance.
- Zip has surprised the market with better-than-expected earnings over the past year.
- The company has upgraded expectations post the most recent quarter, indicating potential for additional upside earnings risk.
Centennial Asset Management
16 Apr 2025
$1.15
Summary
- Centennial Asset Management views COG Financial Services Ltd as a finance broker facilitating equipment financing.
- COG has a solid market presence but has diverged from its core business by exploring investments in other growth areas.
- The recent appointment of Tony Robinson as chairman and John Dwyer to the board is seen as a positive catalyst for the company.
- Both new board members have a strong background in brokerage, specifically with PSC Insurance.
- They have invested in COG, indicating confidence in its potential for restructuring and improvement.
- COG's stock is considered undervalued, presenting an opportunity for potential rerating.
- Centennial Asset Management believes that with effective management and direction, COG can achieve significant growth.
- The fund has initiated a position in COG and may increase its investment in the future.
Sandon Capital
31 Mar 2025
$1.13
Summary
- Sandon Capital notes significant changes at the Board level of COG Financial Services Ltd.
- Resignations include Patrick Tuttle, Stephen White, and Mark Crain as directors.
- Cameron McCullagh transitions from an executive to a non-executive director role.
- New Board members John Dwyer and Tony Robinson bring extensive experience from the insurance broking market.
- Dwyer and Robinson were previously with PSC Insurance, acquired for $2.3 billion in October 2024.
- The Board has successfully transformed COG from a small equipment lease book to Australia’s largest SME broker in under a decade.
- This transformation has led to a capital light business model, generating substantial cash flow and high returns on equity.
- Sandon Capital congratulates the outgoing Board on their accomplishments and looks forward to the direction of the new leadership.
Naos Asset Management
31 Mar 2025
$1.13
Summary
- Naos Asset Management believes that COG Financial Services Ltd requires significant change to improve shareholder outcomes and simplify its business.
- The first critical step occurred at the end of Q3 FY25, with the resignation of three directors and one director transitioning to a non-executive role.
- Tony Robinson is appointed as Non-Executive Chairman, and John Dwyer joins as a Non-Executive Director; both bring experience from their time at PSC Insurance.
- COG is exploring restructuring options, including potential divestments of minority investments that do not significantly contribute to its core operations.
- The refreshed board may adapt successful strategies from PSC Insurance, focusing on business structure simplification.
- COG has an opportunity in insurance broking, leveraging its 792 member broker firms to provide insurance for high-value equipment acquisitions.
- The FB&A Division, as the largest owner and aggregator of finance brokers in Australia with over 20% market share, faces challenges but has growth potential through organic strategies and strategic acquisitions.
- Improving earnings in the FB&A Division may lead to a higher market valuation for COG, similar to the growth experienced by PSC Insurance.
- Naos Asset Management continues to hold the investment, believing COG possesses the fundamentals needed for a simplified strategy to grow earnings consistently.
Hurdle Rate
31 Jan 2025
$0.99
Summary
- COG Financial Services recorded a 1% increase in net profit excluding the TL Commercial run-off book.
- Novated Leasing and corporate investments contributed positively to the performance.
- Broking and lending activities detracted from overall results.
- With the Plug-in Hybrid exemption ending in April, there may be a last-minute boost in originations for Novated Leasing.
- Stable or decreasing RBA cash rates are favorable as fixed rate loans cycle out, potentially expanding net interest margins.
- Hurdle Rate continues to hold its position in COG Financial Services based on these developments.
Naos Asset Management
30 Sept 2024
$0.94
Summary
- COG delivered a satisfactory FY24 result with NPATA remaining flat, but increased by 12% when excluding non-core earnings from TL Rentals.
- EPS growth was flat due to an increase in shares on issue.
- Naos Asset Management is attracted to COG's low working capital requirements and excellent cash flow generation from three aggregation businesses.
- Cash results support a strong dividend profile.
- ~40% of Naos's investment in COG was sold following FY24 results.
- COG's market valuation has significantly declined over the last 12 months, with a current P/E below 8 times based on FY24 earnings.
- The decline in valuation is attributed to the complexity of COG’s structure and capital management decisions.
- Naos believes COG shares are undervalued and suggests divesting divisions to realize value.
- Potential divestitures include COG’s FB&A division to a larger mortgage broking group, and novated leasing business.
- Naos recommends selling minority investments in Earlypay and Centrepoint Alliance, and divesting Westlawn.
- Proceeds from divestitures could be used to scale COG’s FB&A and novated leasing divisions.
- Simplifying COG’s business and adopting a focused capital management strategy could lead to a significant re-rate in share price.
Sandon Capital
31 July 2024
$1.20
Summary
- COG Financial Services Ltd announced unaudited FY24 results with NPATA of $24.1 million, reflecting a ~2% increase on the prior comparable period (pcp).
- Excluding the TL Commercial operating lease business in run-off, NPATA reached $22.7 million, marking a 12% increase on the pcp.
- The strong performance was primarily driven by the Novated Leasing segment.
- Results were partly offset by challenges in the Finance Broking & Aggregation and Asset Management & Lending segments.
- A significant parcel of shares was traded, linked to a fund that announced its winding up.
- The sale of this stake may have contributed to the improved share price performance of COG for the month.
Naos Asset Management
31 Mar 2024
$1.44
Summary
- Naos Asset Management has held an investment in COG Financial Services for over 10 years.
- COG has transformed from a commercial lease book in run-off to Australia’s largest asset finance broker and aggregator.
- COG originates over $9 billion in loans annually through its network.
- Executive Director Cameron McCullagh is a significant shareholder and contributed to the growth in the finance broking market.
- COG has acquired numerous brokers and aggregators, establishing itself as the largest aggregator in the finance broking market.
- Recently, COG diversified into novated leasing and asset management, enhancing its business model.
- COG operates a capital-light model, mitigating credit risk while generating revenue.
- COG has access to over 40 funders, providing brokers with diverse funding options.
- COG has developed an in-house IT system, enhancing data management and cybersecurity for broker members.
- COG facilitates succession planning for brokers, allowing older owners to monetize equity effectively.
- COG hosts industry events and provides training solutions, fostering community among its broker members.
- The acquisition of Paywise has strengthened COG's position in the novated leasing sector.
- COG can leverage its network to cross-sell novated leasing services to new clients.
- COG’s asset management division capitalizes on investor funds for lending opportunities, enhancing profit potential.
- COG aims for an NPATA of >$30m in FY25, driven by its diversified segments.
- Naos Asset Management believes COG's capital-light approach and focus on growth will drive re-rating of its valuation.
Naos Asset Management
31 Dec 2023
$1.45
Summary
- Naos Asset Management notes Q1 FY24 results indicate robust growth in COG Financial Services’ newly formed Novated Leasing division, despite flat performance in the Finance Broking & Aggregation division.
- The Novated Leasing division’s NPATA surged from $900,000 to $2.4 million over the last 12 months, showcasing significant potential.
- Naos Asset Management believes that the collaboration with EML Group positions COG as a potential top-3 player in the Australian market for Novated Leasing.
- COG’s recent acquisition of a 19.99% stake in Centrepoint Alliance (ASX: CAF) aligns with their strategic focus on financial planning services.
- With 500 licensed financial planners, CAF complements COG’s service offerings and expands its customer base.
- COG is targeting the fragmented financial planning sector for growth, leveraging its existing customer relationships with SMEs.
- Naos Asset Management emphasizes the importance of COG’s management effectively communicating their growth strategy and the synergies between divisions.
- Despite consistent profit results, COG has not yet experienced a valuation re-rating, suggesting potential upside.
- COG's entry into financial planning could enhance organic growth opportunities in a capital light manner.
- In FY24, COG is expected to settle >$10 billion in equipment loans, compared to Australian Finance Group's (ASX: AFG) $2.5 billion, highlighting significant market potential.
Naos Asset Management
30 Sept 2023
$1.38
Summary
- Naos Asset Management notes that FY23 was affected by Earlypay's performance, impacting COG's earnings.
- COG reported EPSA of 12.55cps, down from 13.87cps.
- The Finance Broking & Aggregation (FB&A) division performed well, with finance volumes increasing to $7.7 billion, leading to ~12% NPATA growth.
- The Funds Management (FM) division saw a ~13% fall in NPAT, but the quality of results improved due to a smaller contribution from the TL Rentals loan book.
- COG incurred one-off expenses related to establishing their first warehouse financing facility with a big-4 bank.
- Improved disclosure on the Fleet Network novated leasing and salary packaging business was provided.
- In April 2023, COG acquired WA-based Paywise for $30 million, projected to increase NPATA by ~$2 million if growth continues.
- COG also acquired finance aggregation businesses United Financial Services (UFS) and National Finance Choice (NFC), potentially increasing annualised NAF to ~$9 billion.
- Consolidation in the industry will benefit COG, enhancing its competitive position.
- Naos Asset Management anticipates a higher growth year with a potential NPATA target of $30 million for FY24.
- COG could benefit from EPY's guidance, potentially a $3 million NPATA increase.
- Additional NPATA from UFS and NFC acquisitions is estimated at a minimum of $1 million.
- The extra 10 months of the Paywise acquisition could add at least $2 million to NPATA.
- COG continues to trade at a discount compared to peers, with expectations for a positive Q1 trading update.
The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in COG Financial Services Ltd (ASX:COG)?
Fund managers including Naos Asset Management, Centennial Asset Management, Hurdle Rate, Sandon Capital, Wilson Asset Management and Glennon Small Companies have invested in COG Financial Services Ltd (ASX:COG).
Why do fund managers invest in COG Financial Services Ltd?
Fund managers invest in COG Financial Services Ltd due to its strong market position as Australia's largest aggregator of finance brokers, holding about 25% market share. The recent board changes aim to simplify operations and enhance growth prospects through potential strategic acquisitions. Investors are also drawn by COG's focus on core broking and novated leasing businesses, which have demonstrated consistent performance, especially in asset finance. The ongoing divestment of non-core assets and a disciplined approach to capital management further bolster its risk/reward profile.
What happened to COG Financial Services Ltd (ASX:COG)?
Fund managers are bullish on COG Financial Services Ltd due to its strategic acquisitions and strong market position. The recent acquisition of EasiFleet for $40 million enhances COG's salary packaging and novated leasing capabilities, expanding its footprint in key Australian markets. With a solid financial position allowing for further acquisitions and an increasing presence in the growing asset finance sector, COG is set to capture more market share. Positive investor sentiment is further supported by consistent revenue growth and confidence from insider investments, making it an appealing opportunity for long-term gains.
What is the short interest in COG Financial Services Ltd (ASX:COG)?
According to ASIC filings, there is negligible or no short interest in COG Financial Services Ltd (ASX:COG).
What does COG Financial Services Ltd (ASX:COG) do?
COG Financial Services Ltd. engages in the provision of equipment finance, funds management, and lending sector. It operates through the following segments: Finance Broking and Aggregation; Funds Management and Lending; and All Other. The Finance Broking and Aggregation segment comprise business units on the aggregation of broker volumes through scale, and finance broking focused on a range of finance products and asset types. The Funds Management and Lending segment is focused on the management of investment funds and providing financing arrangements to commercial customers for essential business assets. The All Other segment includes equity investment of in the associate Earlypay Limited, and corporate office function provided by the ultimate parent entity. The company was founded on June 11, 2002 and is headquartered in Chatswood, Australia.
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