Fund Manager Summary
The fund managers believe that the outlook for Mirvac Group presents a compelling opportunity for investors. They note that Mirvac operates as a Bond-like Equity, backed by a high-quality commercial property portfolio, while also navigating the cyclical nature of its residential development business. In their opinion, the recent monetary tightening has pressured commercial property valuations and led to historically low new home sales. However, signs of stabilizing sales rates and early recovery indications in certain markets have emerged. The fund managers initiated a position at prices below their estimate of marked-to-market net tangible asset value, suggesting compelling risk-adjusted value with substantial return potential as the residential cycle rebounds. They also acknowledge that further upside could occur if bond yields decline as the tightening phase ends.
Source: Trading View
Commentary From The Managers
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Pendal Group
27 Oct 2025
$2.42
Summary
- Pendal Group continues to monitor Mirvac Group (MGR) closely following their recent performance.
- Mirvac reported 1Q26 residential settlements of 265 lots, an increase from 220 lots in 1Q25, but a decrease from 4Q25.
- The Group has reaffirmed their FY26 settlement guidance of 2,000-2,300 lots.
- 1Q26 unconditional residential sales remained flat at 619 lots, with only 80 apartment sales, which is considered low given the ongoing apartment projects.
- Total pre-sales are reported at $1.6B, reflecting a 24% decline from the previous quarter.
- This performance is viewed as disappointing, especially in light of rate cuts and the existing undersupply in the market.
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Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Pendal Group
27 Oct 2025
$2.42
- Pendal Group continues to monitor Mirvac Group (MGR) closely following their recent performance.
- Mirvac reported 1Q26 residential settlements of 265 lots, an increase from 220 lots in 1Q25, but a decrease from 4Q25.
- The Group has reaffirmed their FY26 settlement guidance of 2,000-2,300 lots.
- 1Q26 unconditional residential sales remained flat at 619 lots, with only 80 apartment sales, which is considered low given the ongoing apartment projects.
- Total pre-sales are reported at $1.6B, reflecting a 24% decline from the previous quarter.
- This performance is viewed as disappointing, especially in light of rate cuts and the existing undersupply in the market.
Summary
Wilson Asset Management
30 Apr 2025
$2.28
- Wilson Asset Management continues to hold a positive outlook on Mirvac Group due to its diversified portfolio as a real estate investment trust (REIT), encompassing active residential development and passive investments in living, office, retail, and industrial properties.
- In April, Mirvac benefited from shifting interest rate expectations, with projections now indicating four to five rate cuts in Australia by December 2025, a significant increase from the 2.5 cuts forecasted in late March.
- Lower interest rates are expected to enhance sales in Mirvac's residential development business and improve valuations across its passive investments.
- The recent quarterly results for Mirvac Group demonstrate progress in strategic priorities, particularly in the execution of capital partnerships and momentum in development projects.
- There is ongoing growth in Mirvac's living sector exposure, further supporting the investment thesis.
Summary
Wilson Asset Management
31 Dec 2024
$1.88
- Mirvac Group detracted from investment portfolio performance in December, reflecting broader challenges in the real estate investment trusts sector.
- Rising bond yields, particularly the US government 10-year treasury bond yield, increased by 0.4% during the month, impacting the sector.
- Mirvac's dual exposure to residential and office markets made it particularly vulnerable to these challenges.
- Despite the headwinds, Wilson Asset Management maintains a positive outlook on Mirvac's fundamentals.
- Residential margins appear to have stabilised, bolstered by the strong performance of new project launches.
- Progress on Mirvac's asset sale program has been robust.
- Office valuations have reached their trough, indicating potential for recovery.
Summary
BKI Investment Company
30 June 2024
$1.86
- BKI Investment Company has added capital to existing positions in Mirvac (MGR-ASX).
- Both Mirvac and another company are considered to be offering good value.
- They are trading at attractive discounts to their NTA.
- Both companies offer dividend yields of over 5.0%.
- Future earnings streams are supported by significant structural tailwinds.
- These tailwinds stem from a supply/demand imbalance in housing.
- Significant growth is expected in Australia’s population.
Summary
Cooper Investors
31 Mar 2024
$2.37
- Cooper Investors initiated a position in Mirvac (MGR) during the quarter.
- Mirvac operates a high-quality commercial property portfolio, representing a Bond-like Equity.
- The company also has cyclical characteristics primarily through its residential development business.
- Recent monetary tightening has pressured commercial property valuations and sentiment.
- National new home sales have declined to 10–20-year lows, positioning Mirvac’s residential business at the bottom of the cycle.
- Signs of stabilisation in sales rates and early recovery indications in certain markets have been observed.
- The opportunity arose to invest below the estimated marked-to-market net tangible asset value.
- This reflects compelling risk-adjusted value latency with substantial upside as the residential cycle recovers.
- Further upside potential exists if bond yields decline as we exit the tightening phase.
- This perspective is not the sole basis for the investment thesis.
Summary
Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
ANALYST INSIGHT
Equity Research Analyst
"With commercial property under pressure and residential sales at historic lows, the current climate appears ripe for Mirvac Group. As signs of stabilization emerge, this could be a prime moment for investors seeking compelling value in a recovering market."
Last Updated: 27 Oct 2025
Query The Data
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR)?
Fund managers including Cooper Investors, Wilson Asset Management, BKI Investment Company and Pendal Group have invested in Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR).
Why do fund managers invest in Mirvac Group?
Fund managers are investing in Mirvac Group due to its strong commercial property portfolio, which offers bond-like equity characteristics, and its positioning at the bottom of the residential development cycle. The current market conditions have led to attractive entry points below estimated net tangible asset values, presenting compelling risk-adjusted value. Additionally, signs of stabilizing sales rates and potential recovery in residential markets, coupled with the possibility of declining bond yields, further enhance the investment's upside potential.
What happened to Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR)?
Fund managers, including Pendal Group, are investing in Mirvac Group due to its stable residential settlements and reaffirmed guidance for FY26, despite a slight decline in sales and pre-sales figures. The company's performance indicates resilience in a challenging market, characterized by low apartment sales amid high demand, positioning Mirvac as a potential value play.