Fund Manager Summary on Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR)
In February 2026, Yarra Capital Management commented that Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) appears well positioned to benefit from a premium housing recovery and that its office portfolio is in good shape. Overall, fund manager commentary from April 2025 to February 2026 reflects a cautiously constructive consensus: managers point to structural tailwinds from lower interest rate expectations—Wilson Asset Management noted markets priced four to five cuts by December 2025 and said lower rates should stimulate Mirvac’s residential development sales and support valuations across its passive living, office, retail and industrial assets—and to the company’s progress on strategic priorities including execution of capital partnerships, development momentum and expanded living sector exposure; offsetting this, Pendal Group highlighted operational risks in October 2025 with 1Q26 residential settlements of 265 lots (up from 220 in 1Q25) alongside reconfirmed FY26 settlement guidance of 2,000-2,300, but flagged only 80 apartment sales in the quarter, flat unconditional sales at 619 lots and pre-sales down to $1.6 billion (a 24% decline quarter-on-quarter), which suggests slower apartment pre-sales despite rate tailwinds; actionable considerations are to monitor settlement and pre-sale trends versus guidance, apartment sales velocity and pricing, conversion of development pipeline into cashflows, progress and risk-sharing from capital partnerships, and valuation sensitivity to further rate moves.
Commentary From The Managers
There are 6 insights from 5 fund managers regarding their investment in Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) available on Thesis Tracker.
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Updates are made available to members within 12 hours of being released. The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Yarra Capital Management
27 Feb 2026
$2.05
Summary
- Yarra Capital Management believes Mirvac offers compelling exposure to a premium-end housing recovery and continues to hold because the company delivered a positive earnings result, the share price has re-rated, and the office portfolio is in great shape.
- Positive earnings result — Mirvac reported a stronger-than-expected result and the stock jumped more than 5 per cent following the update.
- Premium housing recovery — the team (notably Hershan) is positioning for a rebound at the higher end of the housing market, which should support development margins and sales velocity.
- Office portfolio strength — portfolio quality and leasing fundamentals are viewed as robust, providing resilient cash flow and earnings support.
- Developer stance — Mirvac’s integrated development & investment model provides upside from residential completions alongside recurring income from managed property assets.
- Re-rating catalysts — near-term drivers include ongoing housing momentum at the premium end, continued earnings delivery, and sustained office performance.
Pendal Group
27 Oct 2025
$2.42
Summary
- Pendal Group continues to monitor Mirvac Group (MGR) closely following their recent performance.
- Mirvac reported 1Q26 residential settlements of 265 lots, an increase from 220 lots in 1Q25, but a decrease from 4Q25.
- The Group has reaffirmed their FY26 settlement guidance of 2,000-2,300 lots.
- 1Q26 unconditional residential sales remained flat at 619 lots, with only 80 apartment sales, which is considered low given the ongoing apartment projects.
- Total pre-sales are reported at $1.6B, reflecting a 24% decline from the previous quarter.
- This performance is viewed as disappointing, especially in light of rate cuts and the existing undersupply in the market.
Wilson Asset Management
30 Apr 2025
$2.28
Summary
- Wilson Asset Management continues to hold a positive outlook on Mirvac Group due to its diversified portfolio as a real estate investment trust (REIT), encompassing active residential development and passive investments in living, office, retail, and industrial properties.
- In April, Mirvac benefited from shifting interest rate expectations, with projections now indicating four to five rate cuts in Australia by December 2025, a significant increase from the 2.5 cuts forecasted in late March.
- Lower interest rates are expected to enhance sales in Mirvac's residential development business and improve valuations across its passive investments.
- The recent quarterly results for Mirvac Group demonstrate progress in strategic priorities, particularly in the execution of capital partnerships and momentum in development projects.
- There is ongoing growth in Mirvac's living sector exposure, further supporting the investment thesis.
Wilson Asset Management
31 Dec 2024
$1.88
Summary
- Mirvac Group detracted from investment portfolio performance in December, reflecting broader challenges in the real estate investment trusts sector.
- Rising bond yields, particularly the US government 10-year treasury bond yield, increased by 0.4% during the month, impacting the sector.
- Mirvac's dual exposure to residential and office markets made it particularly vulnerable to these challenges.
- Despite the headwinds, Wilson Asset Management maintains a positive outlook on Mirvac's fundamentals.
- Residential margins appear to have stabilised, bolstered by the strong performance of new project launches.
- Progress on Mirvac's asset sale program has been robust.
- Office valuations have reached their trough, indicating potential for recovery.
BKI Investment Company
30 June 2024
$1.86
Summary
- BKI Investment Company has added capital to existing positions in Mirvac (MGR-ASX).
- Both Mirvac and another company are considered to be offering good value.
- They are trading at attractive discounts to their NTA.
- Both companies offer dividend yields of over 5.0%.
- Future earnings streams are supported by significant structural tailwinds.
- These tailwinds stem from a supply/demand imbalance in housing.
- Significant growth is expected in Australia’s population.
Cooper Investors
31 Mar 2024
$2.37
Summary
- Cooper Investors initiated a position in Mirvac (MGR) during the quarter.
- Mirvac operates a high-quality commercial property portfolio, representing a Bond-like Equity.
- The company also has cyclical characteristics primarily through its residential development business.
- Recent monetary tightening has pressured commercial property valuations and sentiment.
- National new home sales have declined to 10–20-year lows, positioning Mirvac’s residential business at the bottom of the cycle.
- Signs of stabilisation in sales rates and early recovery indications in certain markets have been observed.
- The opportunity arose to invest below the estimated marked-to-market net tangible asset value.
- This reflects compelling risk-adjusted value latency with substantial upside as the residential cycle recovers.
- Further upside potential exists if bond yields decline as we exit the tightening phase.
- This perspective is not the sole basis for the investment thesis.
The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR)?
Fund managers including Cooper Investors, Wilson Asset Management, BKI Investment Company, Pendal Group and Yarra Capital Management have invested in Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR).
Why do fund managers invest in Mirvac Group?
Fund managers invest in Mirvac Group primarily due to its strong asset base and growth potential in the real estate sector. As a REIT involved in residential development and diverse property investments, Mirvac is positioned to benefit from anticipated interest rate cuts, which could enhance sales and valuations across its portfolios. Despite recent mixed quarterly results, its strategic initiatives and continued focus on capital partnerships support long-term stability and may provide attractive yields for investors.
What happened to Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR)?
Fund managers are investing in Mirvac Group due to its steady residential settlements, with 265 lots reported for 1Q26, surpassing the 220 lots in 1Q25. However, concerns arose from a decline in pre-sales and low apartment sales amid ongoing project developments. The reaffirmed FY26 settlement guidance of 2,000-2,300 lots indicates confidence in future performance despite current market challenges.
What is the short interest in Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR)?
The short interest in Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) is 0.15% which makes it the 373rd most shorted stock on the ASX. Of the 3.9B shares that Mirvac Group has on issue, 6.1M have been sold short.
What does Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) do?
Mirvac Group engages in real estate investment, development, third party capital management, and property asset management. It operates through the following segments: Investment, Funds, and Development. The Investment segment focuses on directly owned assets, co-investment stakes in funds, and investments in joint ventures and associates alongside capital partners. The Funds segment includes both funds management and asset management operations. The Development segment deals with commercial and mixed-use, build to rent, and residential projects. The company was founded by Henry Pollack and Robert Hamilton in 1972 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.